Advertise | Bookmark | Contact Us | E-Mail List |  | Update Page | UraniumSeek.com 

Commentary : Gold Review : Markets : News Wire : Quotes : Silver : Stocks - Main Page 

 GoldSeek.com >> News >> Story  Disclaimer 
 
Latest Headlines

Gold: Tactics For The Price Sale
By: Stewart Thomson

A Depressed Economy And A Silver Boom
By: Hubert Moolman

Gold Stocks are not too Oversold yet
By: Jordan Roy-Byrne CMT, MFTA

JULY - SII UPDATE; Mid-Year 2018
By: Gordon T Long

Bullish Data For COMEX Gold
By: Craig Hemke

Weekend Report…Impulse Moves in the Currencies
By: Rambus

Has Inflation Peaked?
By: Arkadiusz Sieron

Taiga Completes Fieldwork at Orchid Project, Provides Update on Ongoing Exploration at the Fisher Project
By: Taiga Gold Corp.

Northern Vertex Announces July Production Results for the Moss Mine
By: Northern Vertex Mining Corp.

Jim Rogers on Gold, Silver, Bitcoin and Blockchain’s “Spectacular Future”
By: GoldCore

 
Search

GoldSeek Web

 
Gold and Silver Stocks Begin Next Leg Higher


 -- Published: Friday, 13 June 2014 | Print  | Disqus 

By Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT

 

Yes you read that correctly. The miners have begun another leg higher because the evidence strongly supports the view that they have formed a higher low. Only time will tell for sure but the evidence is quite strong. It seems that every analyst was calling for a July low. I felt strongly that the miners would make their next low after Gold broke below $1200. I was far more confident in the bullish case at the June 2013 and December 2013 bottoms. I was even skeptical after Tuesday’s upside explosion. However, the weight of the evidence today argues that the miners have made a higher low and are starting their next leg higher. 

 

First let’s look at GDXJ which is showing leadership. I want to highlight three bullish points. First, the volume has been huge. Weekly volume will be a record. Daily volume was near records the day before GDXJ bottomed (May 27) and the day it bottomed (May 28). After Monday it appeared the miners could head lower. Tuesday GDXJ gapped up and closed at the high of the day on huge volume. Wednesday’s volume dipped only slightly while Thursday’s volume was an all time high! Strength was followed by strength. The second point is that Tuesday and Wednesday’s explosions came with the metals being up less than 1% in that entire period. The shares are showing excellent relative strength at a time when the metals are in a weak technical position. Third, note that GDXJ is set to close at a 12-week high. That is quite a bit of strength only two weeks after a low. The initial rebounds from the previous two lows were much weaker in size and intensity. GDXJ’s next resistance is $44. A weekly close above $44 marks a higher high.

 

 

 

Meanwhile, history argues that its very unlikely that the bear in the miners isn’t over. The current bear would be the third longest ever. The two longest bears were the longest because their price damage was mild until the tail end. It’s not impossible that the current bear could roll over to a final low. We thought that was possible until Wednesday. However, given the aforementioned strength in the sector, it seems highly unlikely.

 

 

 

The action in Silver and the silver stocks also leads me to believe that the near term risk reward strongly favors the upside. We’ve been waiting for Silver to break below $18 because we believe it would mark a clear end to its bear market. Silver recently closed at an 11-month low and the same week closed Friday at $18.82, which marked a new weekly low for the bear market. Silver has since failed to decline further. The metal has started to rally and it could spark a short squeeze. Gross short positions reached a new all time high in each of the past two weeks. Moreover, the chart below shows the positive divergence in the silver stocks. While Silver tested its June 2013 low, SIL and SILJ were trading well above their lows. 

 

 

 

The weight of the evidence argues that precious metals shares and likely Silver have seen their low and are headed higher. GDXJ and Silver peaked more than three years ago. GDXJ declined 81% while Silver’s bear market was nearly its worst excluding its 1980 collapse. The outright strength in the stocks cannot be disputed. It was not a one day event. The stocks led the metals down and are now in position to lead the metals higher. With that said, the only fly in the ointment for me is Gold which peaked last, is technically weak and still carries some speculative interest. I would not be surprised to see it break lower before the entire sector moves aggressively higher. Regardless, our view is the stocks have formed a higher low and that pullbacks should be bought. They don’t ring a bell at the start of a new bull market and by nature analysts and pundits won’t be in agreement when it starts. Consider a subscription to our premium service as we highlight the best junior companies and trade and invest a real money portfolio for subscribers benefit.

 

Good Luck!

 

Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT

Jordan@TheDailyGold.com


| Digg This Article
 -- Published: Friday, 13 June 2014 | E-Mail  | Print  | Source: GoldSeek.com

comments powered by Disqus



 



Increase Text SizeDecrease Text SizeE-mail Link of Current PagePrinter Friendly PageReturn to GoldSeek.com

 news.goldseek.com >> Story

E-mail Page  | Print  | Disclaimer 


© 1995 - 2018



GoldSeek.com Supports Kiva.org

© GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC

The content on this site is protected by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of GoldSeek.com and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on GoldSeek.com. This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other features found on the site. Please contact us for any further information.

Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer

The views contained here may not represent the views of GoldSeek.com, its affiliates or advertisers. GoldSeek.com makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics, analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained on or within this website, without the express written consent of GoldSeek.com, is strictly prohibited. In no event shall GoldSeek.com or its affiliates be liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon the information provided herein.