-- Published: Monday, 3 November 2014 | Print | Disqus
By Graham Summers
The Keynesian economists managing or advising the world’s Central Banks have always averred that they could pull us out of the weakest recovery in the post-WWII era if they were allowed to have their way.
Their “way” involves rampant debt monetization, also called Quantitative Easing or QE. Indeed, the primary argument from the Keynesians as to why QE has thus far failed to generate a rip-roaring recovery is that none of the QE programs in place were large enough.
Japan is where the Keynesian economic model rubber hit the road. In April 2013, the Bank of Japan announced a staggering $1.4 trillion QE program.
In today’s world of Central Banking madness, $1.4 trillion no longer sounds like an insane amount. So let me put this number into perspective…
$1.4 trillion is…
1) The equivalent of 24% of Japan’s total annual economic output.
2) Enough to fly every human being in Japan to California for a 2-week vacation.
3) The equivalent of writing a check for $11,200 to every man, woman, and child in Japan.
Moreover, with $1.4 trillion, you could…
1) Buy Australia’s entire economy for a year.
2) Fund NASA for the next 82 years.
3) Treat every person on the planet to a $200 five star-dinner at one of New York’s top restaurants.
The program has been a complete failure. Japan’s GDP growth accelerated for only two quarters before turning down again. The misery index in Japan has hit a 33-year high as households were crushed by riding prices.
Even exports, which were supposed to be the primary beneficiaries of a weakening Yen, have tanked. According to CLSA, real exports remain 16% below the 2008 peak in real terms. Sony, the once great electronics giant of Japan slashed its profit outlook by 70% and canceled its dividend for the first time in 50 years.
In simple terms, Abenomics has failed to revitalize Japan. In very specific terms a single QE program equal to over 24% of Japan’s GDP FAILED to generate sustainable growth in GDP, jobs, or even exports.
So what did the Bank of Japan do?
It increased its QE efforts.
It is now clear that Central Banks will do absolutely anything but admit failure. Japan has proven point blank than QE does not create growth. Instead of admitting this, the Bank of Japan has chosen to increase QE.
This is only going to usher in the next round of the Great Crisis that much faster. Only this time around, entire countries will go bust, NOT just banks.
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-- Published: Monday, 3 November 2014 | E-Mail | Print | Source: GoldSeek.com
