Advertise | Bookmark | Contact Us | E-Mail List |  | Update Page | UraniumSeek.com 

Commentary : Gold Review : Markets : News Wire : Quotes : Silver : Stocks - Main Page 

 GoldSeek.com >> News >> Story  Disclaimer 
 
Latest Headlines

Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Gain About 1%
By: Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report

Northern Vertex Files Preliminary Economic Assessment Report for the Moss Gold Mine in NW Arizona
By: Northern Vertex Mining Corp.

Does The CoT Structure Prohibit A Rally?
By: Craig Hemke

Harry Dentís Gold Prediction Invalidated
By: Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA

SELLING OUT OF PRECIOUS METALS AND BUYING BITCOINÖ. Very Bad Idea
By: Steve St. Angelo

The Bitcoin Bubble Explained in 4 Charts
By: Jake Weber

VXX Sends an Awesome Message from Another Galaxy
By: Rick Ackerman

Geopolitical Risk Highest ďIn Four DecadesĒ Ė Gold Demand in Germany and Globally to Remain Robust
By: GoldCore

Asian Metals Market Update: November-22-2017
By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Gain With Stocks
By: Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report

 
Search

GoldSeek Web

 
Are Commodities at a Major Turning Point?


 -- Published: Thursday, 6 November 2014 | Print  | Disqus 

By Gary Savage, Smart Money Tracker

As most of you probably know, I have been expecting the CRB to form a major three year cycle low sometime next summer. However, Iím now starting to see some things that might indicate a major cycle bottom is going to occur earlier than I expected.

Since oil is the main driver of the CRB, and most commodities will follow its lead, Iím going to focus on the action in oil. Notice in the next chart that oil has now reached oversold levels similar to, if not more extreme than, the previous two 3 year cycle lows.

Sentiment in the commodity complex is also at levels last seen at the previous multi-year cycle turning points.

Source: sentimentrader.com

After breaking through support at $1180 gold has now dropped far enough to test the 61% Fibonacci retracement of the previous C-wave rally. Yes, I have been expecting a move all the way back down to $1050, but itís entirely possible that the drop may come up $100 short and bottom at $1150 if the CRB is putting in a three year cycle low right here and now.

I believe oil is the key. When it finds its intermediate and yearly cycle bottom the rest of the commodity complex is going to turn back up. And in Elliot wave terms oil has started its fifth wave down.

Weíre only days away from a bottom, and itís even possible the bottom will form exactly on Election Day as it did in 2012.

The movements in the currency markets are also connected very strongly with the commodity cycles. Notice in the next chart that the euro is within a whisker of testing its 200 month moving average where it has bottomed twice in the past. Once the euro finds a major cycle bottom the dollar is going to put in a larger degree top.

In the next chart of the dollar notice that it is approaching a level where the Fed has cried uncle in the past and acted to turn the currency back down. Also, on a purely cyclical basis, the bottom in May of this year just does not have the DNA markers of a true three year cycle low. I know Iím the only cycles analyst saying this, but I think the three year cycle in the dollar is stretching and we are in the process of putting in a major multi-year top right now with a very stretched three year cycle low to be achieved sometime in the next one or two years.

So for now we wait and watch the energy markets as they are the key. When oil finds its intermediate and yearly cycle bottom look for the rest of the commodity markets to turn and follow it higher, and all this nonsense about now being the time to buy a gas guzzling SUV will soon be long forgotten.


| Digg This Article
 -- Published: Thursday, 6 November 2014 | E-Mail  | Print  | Source: GoldSeek.com

comments powered by Disqus



 



Increase Text SizeDecrease Text SizeE-mail Link of Current PagePrinter Friendly PageReturn to GoldSeek.com

 news.goldseek.com >> Story

E-mail Page  | Print  | Disclaimer 


© 1995 - 2017



GoldSeek.com Supports Kiva.org

© GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC

The content on this site is protected by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of GoldSeek.com and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on GoldSeek.com. This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other features found on the site. Please contact us for any further information.

Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer

The views contained here may not represent the views of GoldSeek.com, its affiliates or advertisers. GoldSeek.com makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics, analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained on or within this website, without the express written consent of GoldSeek.com, is strictly prohibited. In no event shall GoldSeek.com or its affiliates be liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon the information provided herein.