-- Published: Tuesday, 25 November 2014 | Print | Disqus
By Daniel R. Amerman, CFA
If a new collaborative document had recently been released in which some of the world's most influential economists were urging the nations of the world to force negative returns on savers as a long-term matter of policy might this be of importance to you?
What if many of the world's leading economists believed that the path for the economic future could be one that directly contradicts the assumptions upon which traditional stock and bond investing is based? Might that be an important development to consider as you decide how to invest your retirement assets?
Neither of the above questions are hypothetical, unfortunately, but in fact relate to the contents of an extraordinary e-book titled, "Secular Stagnation: Facts, Causes and Cures", edited by Coen Teulings and Richard Baldwin. In this publication, a number of prominent economists discuss a possible state of "secular stagnation" (with "secular" in economics jargon meaning the long term typically at least 10 years and more).
As presented in this book, we are now six years into a period of economic stagnation, and there are serious concerns that we are just getting started. Indeed there is the fear that this may be the beginning of a "new normal", in which we never do reach full employment or fully reboot economic growth again, but instead are stuck in a world of low economic growth, very low interest rates and persistent high unemployment rates.
The Urgent Need To Take Wealth From Savers And Investors
Published by the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), the document is remarkable in both its purpose and its contributors. That is, the explicitly-stated purpose is not to discuss academic theory, but rather to put information into the hands of policy makers so that actions can be taken. Contributors to the book include Lawrence Summers and Paul Krugman, as well as numerous economists from such institutions as Harvard, MIT, Oxford, Cambridge, the International Monetary Fund and also the Principal Economist for the Executive Board of the European Central Bank.
While there are a diversity of views expressed on some matters, there are other areas in which the contributors are in strong consensus.
And the first area of "strong consensus" is the following, from the top of (document) page 2:
"First, a workable definition of secular stagnation is that negative real interest rates are needed to equate savings and investment with full employment."
Now what does "negative real interest rates" mean? Quite simply it means that interest rates are held down to beneath the rate of inflation. Which further means that the purchasing power of saver wealth steadily erodes each year rather than growing and compounding.
The second part of this statement is also very important.
Across Europe in particular but also in the United States, when we get away from calculations for the "headline" unemployment rate and we look to full unemployment which includes people who haven't looked for some time (as covered here), there is a major problem with structural unemployment and underemployment, particularly among the young.
And in the opinion of this prominent group of economists from around the globe with that opinion forming the basis of the very specific policy advice that they're giving to national governments the best way for addressing these stubborn unemployment issues is through forcing negative real rates of returns onto savers and investors, potentially for year, after year, after year.
Now again, this is secular economic stagnation that is being discussed, meaning long term.
This then creates the astonishing situation where tens of millions of people continue to save and invest in the belief that they will be getting positive wealth creation through the compounding of interest income in their savings and investments even while some of the globe's leading economists urge the world's governments to make sure that doesn't happen, because of the quite direct linkage they draw between negative real returns and the goal of rebooting employment.
Secular Stagnation And Stock Market Values
In very short form, the theoretical underpinnings for why it has been so widely recommended that all of us invest in stocks over the long-term is quite simply that investing in stocks is how we all participate in a growing economy.
Average dividend ratios are currently below 2%. That means therefore that the primary source of the compounding of real wealth and the fundamental motivation for investing in stocks effectively must come from economic growth driving price appreciation.
And with stock market levels at some of their highest points in history, this necessarily means that a great deal of economic growth has to occur, if these prices are to be justified.
Yet at the very same time, what is the rationale for this book? It is the question about whether the past applies anymore at all, or whether we have instead entered into a long term period of economic stagnation where growth either does not exist or it is greatly reduced.
And what does that mean for stock market investors?
If in fact these economists are correct, it means that the floor just dropped out from underneath the primary reason for long term investment in stocks.
The Dilemma For Savers And Investors
Does this mean that we know for sure that we face an environment of secular economic stagnation that will transform the investment world and quite possibly lead to long-term negative returns on an inflation-adjusted basis for both bonds and stocks?
I would suggest that we don't know that for certain at all because if this elite group of economists were really that good, they would've called this whole current situation in the first place. But they didn't.
Leaving specific individuals out of it, as a group these leading economists failed to anticipate the damage that would be inflicted by the creation and subsequent collapse of the US stock bubble of the late 1990s; they then failed to see that lowering interest rates in the early 2000s in an attempt to contain the damage from the stock bubble would help to create a real estate bubble; they further failed to anticipate that a real estate bubble growing and then popping would contribute to and help trigger the global financial crisis that came to a head in 2008, and for a number of years afterwards they did not understand that years of economic stagnation rather than normal recovery would follow.
So the overall track record isn't exactly stellar, particularly when we take into account that some of these economists were the same ones who recommended the failed policies that helped create this toxic array of new problems in the first place.
Perhaps the real bottom line is that we face a deeply uncertain future. It could be secular stagnation and a continuation of the path of recent years. Or it could be eventual financial crisis and potential currency and economic meltdown. Or it could be technological advances finding an alternative path out of secular stagnation, through the creation of prosperity.
Nonetheless, there is still enormous information value in this new book, which arguably is neither currently understood nor being taken into account by the great majority of investors on a global basis.
That is, when we consider the full implications of what is being discussed in the document, it goes to the very heart of what underlies modern financial theory and effectively cuts the foundation out from beneath what is by far the most popular school of investment thought, which is that of traditional stock and bond-based financial planning.
Many of the world's savers and investors have been receiving near-zero interest rates for going on four years now and we have a group of world-renowned economists recommending to their governments that this be continued on an indefinite basis.
The second half of this article continues the look at the dilemma which secular stagnation creates for investors following traditional strategies.
The "Flows & Currents of Wealth" system for financial and economic analysis identifies the wealth outflows that result from governmental efforts to fight secular stagnation. There is also discussion of how those same outflows for traditional investors become wealth inflows on a massive scale for governments, major financial institutions, and those individuals following select non-conventional strategies.
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This article contains the ideas and opinions of the author. It is a conceptual exploration of financial and general economic principles. As with any financial discussion of the future, there cannot be any absolute certainty. What this article does not contain is specific investment, legal, tax or any other form of professional advice. If specific advice is needed, it should be sought from an appropriate professional. Any liability, responsibility or warranty for the results of the application of principles contained in the article, website, readings, videos, DVDs, books and related materials, either directly or indirectly, are expressly disclaimed by the author.
Daniel R. Amerman, CFA
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-- Published: Tuesday, 25 November 2014 | E-Mail | Print | Source: GoldSeek.com