LIVE Gold Prices $  | E-Mail Subscriptions | Update GoldSeek | GoldSeek Radio 

Commentary : Gold Review : Markets : News Wire : Quotes : Silver : Stocks - Main Page 

 GoldSeek.com >> News >> Story  Disclaimer 
 
Latest Headlines

GoldSeek.com to Launch New Website
By: GoldSeek.com

Is Gold Price Action Warning Of Imminent Monetary Collapse Part 2?
By: Hubert Moolman

Gold and Silver Are Just Getting Started
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

Silver Makes High Wave Candle at Target – Here’s What to Expect…
By: Clive Maund

Gold Blows Through Upside Resistance - The Chase Is On
By: Avi Gilburt

U.S. Mint To Reduce Gold & Silver Eagle Production Over The Next 12-18 Months
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report

Gold's sharp rise throws Financial Times into an erroneous sulk
By: Chris Powell, GATA

Precious Metals Update Video: Gold's unusual strength
By: Ira Epstein

Asian Metals Market Update: July-29-2020
By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

Gold's rise is a 'mystery' because journalism always fails to pursue it
By: Chris Powell, GATA

 
Search

GoldSeek Web

 
2015 Should Mark An Important Year For Metals


 -- Published: Wednesday, 24 December 2014 | Print  | Disqus 

By Avi Gilburt

With dashed expectations, losses in many investor accounts, and feelings of hopelessness towards metals and miners, many in the metals world were cut to the bone by the action of the metals and mining stocks in 2014.  But, out of these 2014 ashes should rise a powerful phoenix in 2015 and into 2016.

As we came into 2014, most in the metals world were exceptionally bullish.  Everyone was pointing to the “double bottom” in gold, followed by a strong rally, to bolster their feelings of bullish euphoria.  Many viewed this as a strong indication that the metals bull was back.  However, we came into 2014 feeling sorry for these folks, since we had the benefit of Elliott Wave analysis.  And, it was telling us that there was a high probability that a lower low was sitting out there.

As we move into 2015, I have some reservations about saying that a lower low is going to be seen in silver, as has been discussed many times over the last few weeks.  However, most of the indications point to lower levels yet to be seen in the metals and miners.  And, the question on most people’s minds is if we can still hit those lower lows sooner rather than later or will it be delayed until 2015.

If one were to ask me what the most unreliable pattern to trade would be, based upon Elliott Wave analysis, I would probably describe a truncated 5th wave followed by a leading diagonal in the opposite direction.  The reason is that a truncated 5th wave is not a common occurrence, and neither is a leading diagonal, for the start of a new trend.  So, when you combine the two, it makes for a very unreliable trading cue.

Unfortunately, that is exactly the type of pattern set up we would have to rely upon for the downside in GLD.  This is what is causing my hesitancy in suggesting an aggressive short position on the metals.

But, I have to note that the metals are still set up quite bearishly, even though the setup is nowhere near as ideal as I would like.  If you look at the 8 minute chart of GLD posted, you will see that as long as it maintains below the resistance box, it is set up for an imminent decline which should see a target of 105, with the potential to go lower with appropriate extensions.  And, surprisingly, it still can happen before the end of the year.  In fact, if we go back to last year, we will see that GLD dropped 8 points during the last few weeks of the year and bottomed on the last day of the year.  So, it is still quite reasonable for this to occur again.  But, that would mean next week should provide us with indications of this decline.

So, with the clearest regions of support and resistance being presented on the GLD chart, I would say that a break down below 113.50 can be shorted, using a stop of 114.50 based upon the current 1-2, i-ii set up.  If something changes in that set up, I will alert you during the week.  But, as it stands right now, should this set up follow through to the downside, that would be the short term trade I would do.

Alternatively, should resistance be taken out, it means that this 4th wave has still not yet been completed, and our lower lows will not be seen until later in the first quarter of 2015.

See Avi’s charts illustrating the wave counts on the metals below:

 Elliott Wave Chart
 Elliott Wave Chart

 

Avi Gilburt is a widely followed Elliott Wave technical analyst and author of ElliottWaveTrader.net (www.elliottwavetrader.net), a live Trading Room featuring his intraday market analysis (including emini S&P 500, metals, oil, USD & VXX), interactive member-analyst forum, and detailed library of Elliott Wave education.


| Digg This Article
 -- Published: Wednesday, 24 December 2014 | E-Mail  | Print  | Source: GoldSeek.com

comments powered by Disqus



 



Increase Text SizeDecrease Text SizeE-mail Link of Current PagePrinter Friendly PageReturn to GoldSeek.com

 news.goldseek.com >> Story

E-mail Page  | Print  | Disclaimer 


© 1995 - 2019



GoldSeek.com Supports Kiva.org

© GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC

The content on this site is protected by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of GoldSeek.com and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on GoldSeek.com. This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other features found on the site. Please contact us for any further information.

Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer


Map

The views contained here may not represent the views of GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC, its affiliates or advertisers. GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics, analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained on or within this website, without the express written consent of GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC, is strictly prohibited. In no event shall GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC or its affiliates be liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon the information provided herein.