Advertise | Bookmark | Contact Us | E-Mail List |  | Update Page | UraniumSeek.com 

Commentary : Gold Review : Markets : News Wire : Quotes : Silver : Stocks - Main Page 

 GoldSeek.com >> News >> Story  Disclaimer 
 
Latest Headlines

Technical Scoop - Weekend Update Apr 23
By: David Chapman

Silver Squeeze, Gold Fails, And GDX Breadth
By: Jordan Roy-Byrne CMT, MFTA

China Plays It Cool
By: John Mauldin

Inflation, With a Shelf Life
By: Gary Tanashian

A dramatic upward reversal in US monetary inflation
By: Steven Saville

WAITING FOR THE BUY SIGNAL: What’s Going On With Silver Investment
By: Steve St. Angelo

Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up: Gold Dips on the Week While Silver Rises Almost 3%
By: Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report

Taiga Launches Website, Sets Tentative CSE Trading Date
By: Eagle Plains Resources Ltd.

Economics 101: Who Sets Prices?
By: Alasdair Macleod

Silver Breakout Or Fakeout?
By: Mike Maloney and David Morgan

 
Search

GoldSeek Web

 
Potential Upside Target for GDXJ


 -- Published: Friday, 2 January 2015 | Print  | Disqus 

By Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT

 

As 2015 begins I’d like to briefly follow up on my most recent article in which I discussed the oversold condition in the miners. Breadth indicators as well as technical indicators (such as distance from the 200-day moving average) showed the miners reaching an extreme oversold condition in November and nearly again only a few weeks ago. Miners essentially were at their third most oversold point since 2001. The other two were during the 2008 financial crisis and during Gold’s spring collapse in 2013. The current oversold condition combined with the failure of most indices to make new lows in December could be the setup for a first quarter rebound.

 

Before I get to GDXJ I’d like to show an updated bear analog chart for gold mining stocks. We use data from the Barron’s Gold Mining Index dating back to 1932. The current bear market is in blue. Other than during the final weeks of the 1996-2000 bear market gold stocks (according to this chart) could be at their most oversold point in history. It certainly is very close. Bull markets began from similar points. Three times the 1996-2000 bear became this oversold. Twice it rebounded and the final time it consolidated for weeks before falling to its bear market low in the second half of 2000.

 

 

 

Below is a weekly bar chart of GDXJ. Note the confluence of trendline and lateral resistance just below $33. The 50% retracement of the recent 53% decline (June to December) is $33. Clearly $33 figures to be important overhead resistance. GDXJ closed Wednesday pennies below $24.

 

 

At the bottom of the chart we plot a rolling 7-week rate of change for GDXJ. Over the past two years GDXJ has gained at least 30% within seven weeks on four different occasions. Twice it gained at least 40%. A 40% advance from Wednesday’s close would take GDXJ to $33.50.   

 

Whether or not a new bull market is about to begin does not change the near term outlook. Gold and silver miners (and juniors especially) became extremely oversold and are ripe for a good rebound. It appears to be an excellent long opportunity for traders as well as an opportunity for investors to start scaling into long positions. Consider learning more about our premium service which includes a report on our top 10 juniors to buy for the coming bull market.  

 

Good Luck!

 

Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT

Jordan@TheDailyGold.com

 


| Digg This Article
 -- Published: Friday, 2 January 2015 | E-Mail  | Print  | Source: GoldSeek.com

comments powered by Disqus



 



Increase Text SizeDecrease Text SizeE-mail Link of Current PagePrinter Friendly PageReturn to GoldSeek.com

 news.goldseek.com >> Story

E-mail Page  | Print  | Disclaimer 


© 1995 - 2017



GoldSeek.com Supports Kiva.org

© GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC

The content on this site is protected by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of GoldSeek.com and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on GoldSeek.com. This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other features found on the site. Please contact us for any further information.

Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer

The views contained here may not represent the views of GoldSeek.com, its affiliates or advertisers. GoldSeek.com makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics, analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained on or within this website, without the express written consent of GoldSeek.com, is strictly prohibited. In no event shall GoldSeek.com or its affiliates be liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon the information provided herein.