Advertise | Bookmark | Contact Us | E-Mail List |  | Update Page | 

Commentary : Gold Review : Markets : News Wire : Quotes : Silver : Stocks - Main Page >> News >> Story  Disclaimer 
Latest Headlines

Bridging the ‘fourth turning’ with gold
By: Michael J. Kosares

Bitcoin: Landing Gear Engaged. Bottom Is Still a Process
By: Ryan Wilday

The Good News Economy
By: John Mauldin

Great News For (The Remaining) Gold Bugs: Gold AND Silver Futures Speculators Are Now Net Short
By: John Rubino

BIG TROUBLE BREWING AT THE BAKKEN: Rapid Rise In Water Production Signals Red Flag Warning
By: Steve St. Angelo

Nine Years. Is That Enough?
By: Arkadiusz Sieron

Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up: Gold and Silver Fall Over 2% and 3% on the Week
By: Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report

COT Gold, Silver and US Dollar Index Report - August 17, 2018

Why the uranium price must go up
By: Richard (Rick) Mills

Gold Miners’ Q2’18 Fundamentals
By: Adam Hamilton, CPA


GoldSeek Web

They told us the commodities supercycle was over for gold in 2000 jokes DMCC boss Ahmed Sultan bin Sulayem

 -- Published: Sunday, 8 February 2015 | Print  | Disqus 

By Peter Cooper

Industry experts assembled in the Almas Tower at the Jumeirah Lake Towers in the Dubai Multi Commodities Centre today for the second annual Global Commodity Outlook Conference with the recent oil price collapse uppermost in their minds, and very few solid views on where the price would be going next. The same was also true for industrial and agricultural commodity prices in general.

‘Is the commodities supercycle really over?’ asked DMCC executive chairman Ahmed Sultan bin Sulayem in his opening remarks. ‘That’s what they said about gold in the year 2000 and look what happened next!’


This grounding comment set the tone for some inconclusive views from the many experts gathered to address the conference. The best oil price estimate probably came from industry veteran Gary R. King, managing partner of The Matrix Partnership, who saw the oil price ’settling around the mid-$60s and then getting to $80-90′.

Associate professor of finance at the JP Jain School of Global Management, John R. Talbott, put up a chart of the oil price expressed in grams of gold. This graph showed that current oil prices had not been this low in terms of gold since 1973. That looked like a market bottom.

Then again the author of ‘Mastering Commodities’ Francesca Taylor said that the bounce in prices last week could be a ‘dead-cat bounce’ and that oil prices could stay at around current levels for two to three years.

From the Gulf News editor-at-large Francis Matthews thought geopolitical issues from the Ukraine to the Iranian nuclear program pointed to higher oil prices coming back sooner rather than later. Money printing could also be a factor reviving the oil price.

Money printing

Professor Talbott cited the $60 billion euros a year in new money printing from the European Central Bank as reason to believe deflation in the eurozone would be short-lived. Hedge fund managers like Sam Zell have said recently that they think it was the ending of the Fed’s QE last October that brought the oil price crashing down, and not so much the supply/demand imbalance.

Is talk of the ending of the commodities supercycle overdone? Most probably yes, as Mr. Bin Sulayem pointed out almost nobody spotted gold’s potential to surge in 2000.

It is therefore unlikely that anybody will correctly call the end of the commodities supercycle which will be different for different commodities in anycase. Sugar is rather different to a bar of gold or barrel of oil… 

| Digg This Article
 -- Published: Sunday, 8 February 2015 | E-Mail  | Print  | Source:

comments powered by Disqus


Increase Text SizeDecrease Text SizeE-mail Link of Current PagePrinter Friendly PageReturn to >> Story

E-mail Page  | Print  | Disclaimer 

© 1995 - 2018 Supports

©, Gold Seek LLC

The content on this site is protected by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other features found on the site. Please contact us for any further information.

Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer

The views contained here may not represent the views of, its affiliates or advertisers. makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics, analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained on or within this website, without the express written consent of, is strictly prohibited. In no event shall or its affiliates be liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon the information provided herein.