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Here Comes Trouble

 -- Published: Thursday, 12 February 2015 | Print  | Disqus 

Can we finally lay to rest any notion that anything at all trades on fundamentals? Stocks? Please, how can anyone possibly explain the valuations of some of these tech entities? There isn’t a text book ever written that anyone can find that will justify where these tech “darlings” are trading, with one notable exception .

As Armstrong is fond of explaining ad infinitum it is all about capital flows. What he is not so fond of explaining is the buyer dictating capital flows globally are our central banks. And in this author’s opinion there work is nearly finished. They have just about completed the double top in the COMP.


What the picture of the QQQ’s shows is a double top that took a decade and a half for the financial central planners to create. Along the way we were treated to financial engineering the likes of which no one has ever seen. In fact, I do not believe there has ever been a period in recorded history where actual profits mattered less than the past few years.

But for the poor souls that are actually still long these indexes, it is impossible to ignore a double top in this casino. Honestly, look at the move higher off the lows. Do you realize that a trend trader has not come close to selling this market once in almost 6 years? We have not experienced a 20% drawdown even once in that period and trend traders can stomach 30% drawdowns! 

What other clues do we have? Let’s look at the CBs favorite carry trade to see what is happening there. This is not somewhere a technical trader wants to be long the $/yen. This is a double top that took eight years to make. Since this carry trade is the primary driver of indexes, metals and oil this bears watching.


From a shorter term perspective the $/yen is setting up for a swan dive much like gold experienced in 2013. Here is the forensic evidence to support that. $/yen broke out of a flat bottomed triangle after a very extended run. This chart is set-up for a swan dive and I believe it started last night.

Here is a five year chart of GLD. Note the all-time high followed by a flat bottomed triangle breakout and resulting swan dive.


Since fundamentals mean nothing until they mean something we have to rely on what the “powers that be” are using and that is the charts and they are saying look out!

It’s a Mystery.


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 -- Published: Thursday, 12 February 2015 | E-Mail  | Print  | Source:

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