LIVE Gold Prices $  | E-Mail Subscriptions | Update GoldSeek | GoldSeek Radio 

Commentary : Gold Review : Markets : News Wire : Quotes : Silver : Stocks - Main Page 

 GoldSeek.com >> News >> Story  Disclaimer 
 
Latest Headlines

GoldSeek.com to Launch New Website
By: GoldSeek.com

Is Gold Price Action Warning Of Imminent Monetary Collapse Part 2?
By: Hubert Moolman

Gold and Silver Are Just Getting Started
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

Silver Makes High Wave Candle at Target – Here’s What to Expect…
By: Clive Maund

Gold Blows Through Upside Resistance - The Chase Is On
By: Avi Gilburt

U.S. Mint To Reduce Gold & Silver Eagle Production Over The Next 12-18 Months
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report

Gold's sharp rise throws Financial Times into an erroneous sulk
By: Chris Powell, GATA

Precious Metals Update Video: Gold's unusual strength
By: Ira Epstein

Asian Metals Market Update: July-29-2020
By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

Gold's rise is a 'mystery' because journalism always fails to pursue it
By: Chris Powell, GATA

 
Search

GoldSeek Web

 
S&P Cycles Suggest Caution


 -- Published: Wednesday, 8 April 2015 | Print  | Disqus 

By Gary Christenson

The S&P 500 Index has been levitated for 6 years by easy money, low interest rates, buy backs of corporate stock, and so much more.

Can it rally for another 6 years?

I doubt it.  

Examine the following log scale monthly chart of the S&P.

Y-SP2

Items to note:

  • Vertical blue lines show lows – about every 8.75 years.
  • Vertical red lines show tops – about every 7.5 years.
  • The “danger zone” is the area of the red upward trending support line. When the S&P has reached a long-term top area (vertical red line) and has fallen below the red support line, look out below.
  • We are close to a danger zone (approximately 2000 – 2050) as of the end of March 2015.

Does this mean a stock market crash is coming?  Certainly not!  The financial powers-that-be might prolong this rally several more months or even several years, although my take is that an extension into 2016 is unlikely.  However, easy money, bond monetization, zero interest rates, negative bond yields in Europe, and fear of a deflationary collapse can work wonders to support over-extended markets, so we can’t rule out even higher prices.

But given that the S&P has rallied since early 2009, experienced only a minor correction in 2011, is currently at a cyclic peak, clearly over-bought on a monthly and weekly basis, and has been artificially sustained by central bank easy money, is it likely that the next MAJOR move is up or down?  My bet is down. 

I hear your objection.  Can we trust cycles?  In my opinion they are useful but not absolute.  However, long-term cycles are more trustworthy than short term cycles.  Use them in conjunction with other confirmation.

But considering that silver is off about 2/3 from its high nearly 4 years ago and the S&P has been rallying for 6 years, I find silver a far more compelling investment than the S&P.

Gary Christenson

The Deviant Investor


| Digg This Article
 -- Published: Wednesday, 8 April 2015 | E-Mail  | Print  | Source: GoldSeek.com

comments powered by Disqus



 



Increase Text SizeDecrease Text SizeE-mail Link of Current PagePrinter Friendly PageReturn to GoldSeek.com

 news.goldseek.com >> Story

E-mail Page  | Print  | Disclaimer 


© 1995 - 2019



GoldSeek.com Supports Kiva.org

© GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC

The content on this site is protected by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of GoldSeek.com and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on GoldSeek.com. This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other features found on the site. Please contact us for any further information.

Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer


Map

The views contained here may not represent the views of GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC, its affiliates or advertisers. GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics, analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained on or within this website, without the express written consent of GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC, is strictly prohibited. In no event shall GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC or its affiliates be liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon the information provided herein.