Advertise | Bookmark | Contact Us | E-Mail List |  | Update Page | UraniumSeek.com 

Commentary : Gold Review : Markets : News Wire : Quotes : Silver : Stocks - Main Page 

 GoldSeek.com >> News >> Story  Disclaimer 
 
Latest Headlines

Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up: Gold and Silver Gain Over 1% and 2% on the Week
By: Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report

Ira Epstein's Metals Video 11 17 2017
By: Ira Epstein

Next-Generation Crazy: The Fed Plans For The Coming Recession
By: John Rubino

COT Gold, Silver and US Dollar Index Report - November 17, 2017
By: GoldSeek.com

Gold Miners’ Q3’17 Fundamentals
By: Adam Hamilton, CPA

Bonfire of the Absurdities
By: John Mauldin

The Social Security Inflation Lag Calendar - Partial Indexing Part 1
By: Daniel R. Amerman, CFA

Rob From The Middle Class Economics
By: Gary Christenson

GoldSeek Radio Nugget: John Williams and Chris Waltzek
By: radio.GoldSeek.com

The Metals Market Is A Mess And Will Likely Continue To Frustrate You
By: Avi Gilburt

 
Search

GoldSeek Web

 
Crude Bull Market Hope


 -- Published: Monday, 20 April 2015 | Print  | Disqus 

By Bob Loukas

I believe that energy analysts are absolutely delusional to think Crude production will slow significantly, especially with Oil back near the $60 mark. During the recent, lengthy bull market, tens of billions of Dollars were invested in Crude infrastructure, so there is too much at stake to simply shut down operations and walk away. Investors and participants in any industry that has experienced a 15 year bull market won’t change their beliefs overnight – it takes time for sentiment to shift. Most are far too emotionally and financially vested in the industry, so it’s unreasonable to think that a 9 month decline is going to drive an immediate adjustment to the imbalance in supply and demand.

Granted, Oil will see some immediate production cuts, but these will be temporary in nature. They are not long term oil field closures, but rather decreases (or cessations) in the expansion of wells. Once we see some price recovery – as at present – companies will quickly react and start drilling again. Unfortunately, similar to the Gold bear market, I believe that this is the beginning of a long and arduous grind lower over a number of years.

In the short term however, there are positives to report. The fact that Crude barely responded (lower) on Friday to a fairly decent sell-off in Equities suggests that the move higher has further to go. The current Daily Cycle is clearly Right Translated, and there is pent-up demand here after 9 months of massive declines. I expect that the counter-trend action is currently too powerful to end, so Oil should continue to move higher. The next Daily Cycle top might not come until after Day 30, so there could be another 2 weeks of upside ahead.

4-18 Crude Daily

On the weekly Cycle, the chart is as clear as they come. After a long, savage bear market crash, Crude briefly recovered, only to quickly drop again and suck in as many bears as possible. The subsequent rally, which many are calling a new “bull rally”, should continue higher for some time. But once the Investor Cycle eventually tops, the drops should lead to bulls being slaughtered again.

I believe that the 10 month decline that we witnessed is now over. That move has run its course and a new Yearly Cycle is underway. I don’t necessarily believe that new lows need to occur quickly, but I do believe that the upside should be capped and that, by the end of this Yearly Cycle, we will see Crude back near the $30-$40 level.

4-18 Crude weekly

Possible Trading Ideas

Longer term traders could pick up positions (Long) looking towards a June high in crude prices. Although in my opinion, the risk/reward is not all that favorable and they would need to be prepared to weather some volatility. Remember that the crude market is still under a new bear market influence.

For the short term trader, the next trade consideration would be to short crude around my price target $60-$62. But you would need to ensure that the Daily Cycle is advanced enough in the timing band for a good Short trade. And now that we’ve seen an upside breakout, making this a Right Translated Daily Cycle, we should wait until a price reversal after Day 30 (currently on Day 23) before considering a Short trade. So it is unlikely we’ll be looking at a trade this week.

You’re just 1 minute away from profitable trades! please visit: http://thefinancialtap.com/landing/try#


| Digg This Article
 -- Published: Monday, 20 April 2015 | E-Mail  | Print  | Source: GoldSeek.com

comments powered by Disqus



 



Increase Text SizeDecrease Text SizeE-mail Link of Current PagePrinter Friendly PageReturn to GoldSeek.com

 news.goldseek.com >> Story

E-mail Page  | Print  | Disclaimer 


© 1995 - 2017



GoldSeek.com Supports Kiva.org

© GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC

The content on this site is protected by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of GoldSeek.com and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on GoldSeek.com. This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other features found on the site. Please contact us for any further information.

Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer

The views contained here may not represent the views of GoldSeek.com, its affiliates or advertisers. GoldSeek.com makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics, analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained on or within this website, without the express written consent of GoldSeek.com, is strictly prohibited. In no event shall GoldSeek.com or its affiliates be liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon the information provided herein.