-- Published: Thursday, 7 May 2015 | Print | Disqus
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Gold
Gold looks ready to have the “rug” pulled out from under it.
In terms of cycles, the US Federal Reserve is looking for a reason to move back to a normal monetary policy. Just yesterday the markets were sent a message by Fed Chairwoman Yellen when she said that US stock price valuations were high and that bond buyers were exposing themselves to too much risk. In plain English the message is that when the Fed makes its move, the move is likely to send stock prices lower and bond yields higher. This is not bullish gold as higher yields on bond and notes is not an ingredient for higher gold prices when inflation is not an issue.
Another negative for gold is that the break that just took place in the value of the Dollar Index did not move gold prices higher. The US Dollar Index fell approximately 7% from March 13th through yesterday. This break did not move gold into a bullish posture. Typically lower valuations of the US Dollar act as a prop for gold given that gold is priced in US Dollars. The next move for the Dollar is questionable, but if the US economy gets back on track from disappointing first quarter numbers, than the Dollar will likely rally. If not, than the Dollar will waffle a bit but probably not fall to much given the quantitative easing going on in Europe and China, which at this point should not be supportive to gold. Once the stimulus takes hold, that’s a different story but until stimulus produces inflations, other investments are more attractive than gold.
Seasonally speaking, there’s no strong move in gold up or down at this time of year if you study seasonal patterns as I do. If anything, the market is in a bearish pattern. I say this because prices are but $40 from the low of this year while $120 off the year’s high. In bear years, gold often drops between now and the end of May as seen on the seasonal chart provided by Moore Research Inc. below.
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-- Published: Thursday, 7 May 2015 | E-Mail | Print | Source: GoldSeek.com
