First published Sat May 9 for members: Over the last few months, we have been attempting to look up within a larger degree bearish market to trade a counter-trend rally. As I have also stated many times, this is fraught with numerous pitfalls. Even though the market may come back down in our face if it decides to begin to head to lower lows sooner than expected, we usually should be given some amount of early warning before that occurs. This past week, I sent out a Market Update providing guidance as to what one should be looking for to confirm a bearish set up is taking hold.
But, admittedly, it is hard to maintain a bullish bias in this market, especially knowing that lower lows are going to be seen. Yet, the market has not done anything significant to dispel me of the short term notion of expecting a rally, even though it has refused, thus far, to follow through on its bullish set up. There is no question that is has more than tested my patience. But, the pattern in the metals is still bullish, and barely hanging on to that perspective. I would imagine the upcoming week would either ignite the rally, or invalidate it.
While there is not much I am able to add to last weekís analysis, as the metals have not done much over the last week, the GDX has dropped to our support level, and rallied in what is seemingly impulsive fashion. And, until that 18.77 level on the daily chart breaks, I still must maintain my short term upside bias which will complete a 5th wave in a (c) wave of the b-wave rally begun in March.
As for GLD, to keep this as simple as possible, as long as we remain over the 112.25 level, we still have a pattern in place which can take us as high as 128. Yes, that is the most bullish set up I see at this time, but I am unable to yet gauge if this region will be struck until the rally actually takes shape. In silver, the same pattern would take us to the 19/20 region. But, in silver I would rather not see silver break below 16.18 before that rally begins, and a break down below 15.63 has me looking at this chart much more bearishly.
See Aviís charts illustrating the wave counts on the metals below:
Avi Gilburt is a widely followed Elliott Wave technical analyst and author of ElliottWaveTrader.net (www.elliottwavetrader.net), a live Trading Room featuring his intraday market analysis (including emini S&P 500, metals, oil, USD & VXX), interactive member-analyst forum, and detailed library of Elliott Wave education.
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