Advertise | Bookmark | Contact Us | E-Mail List |  | Update Page | UraniumSeek.com 

Commentary : Gold Review : Markets : News Wire : Quotes : Silver : Stocks - Main Page 

 GoldSeek.com >> News >> Story  Disclaimer 
 
Latest Headlines

Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Gain With Stocks
By: Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report

Ira Epstein's Metals Video 11 21 2017
By: Ira Epstein

Bitcoin, Bail Ins And Bullion
By: Mike Maloney

Tactics For The Gold Bull Era
By: Stewart Thomson

Dow Peaking? The Quick Guide to Diversifying Your Stock Profits
By: Jeff Clark

What History Says for Gold Stocks in 2018-2019
By: Jordan Roy-Byrne CMT, MFTA

Jack Chan's Weekly Precious Metals Market Update
By: Jack Chan

Synchronized Global Growth May Have Arrived
By: Frank Holmes

Gold Versus Bitcoin: The Pro-Gold Argument Takes Shape
By: GoldCore

Asian Metals Market Update: November-21-2017
By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

 
Search

GoldSeek Web

 
The 10th Man: 99% Boredom, 1% Sheer Terror


 -- Published: Thursday, 4 June 2015 | Print  | Disqus 

By Jared Dillian 

Back when I was a sailor, I was bored all the time.

I was deck watch officer, standing watch on the bridge. We were miles offshore, hadn’t seen another ship in days, and I’d check the radar, then walk out on the bridge wing and scan the horizon with my binoculars, go back and talk to the quartermaster, check the chart… Zzzzzzz. Mind-crushing boredom.

And then there were those times when we’d be in 80-knot winds and 35-foot seas in the Bering, and I thought I was going to die.

99% boredom, 1% sheer terror.

There are two types of jobs. That type, and then the type where there’s a steady flow of activity all the time, like a teacher or a dentist.

Trading isn’t like being a dentist. It is 99% boredom, 1% sheer terror.

But writing about trading is not like trading. It’s like being a dentist. I write one 10th Man issue a week and one Bull’s Eye Investor a month and one Daily Dirtnap a day, regardless of how boring or exciting the market is.

When the market is really boring, I should probably be writing less. When it’s blowing up, I should be writing more. But my publishing schedule is linear!

Same with TV. What is there to talk about all day in those slow summer markets? Nothing. They should just go home.

One of the things that scientists have learned is that adrenaline increases the strength and intensity of memories. Chances are, you remember the really stressful times in your life—good stress and bad stress. You don’t remember the boring stuff. You don’t remember April 14, 2005, when you were watching TV on the couch. It just goes into the blob, the soup of all the things that make up your life in between the stressful moments.

I would guess you remember less than a tenth of a percent of your entire life. The rest are generalizations—the TV-watching bucket, the sleeping bucket, the driving bucket.

And people wonder why I’m such an adrenaline junkie.

Nonlinear Time

I have a theory about all this: Time, as we experience it, is not linear. It speeds up during boring times and slows down during exciting times. If you’ve ever been in a car accident or have been seriously injured, you remember the moment of impact. It lasted… forever. But it didn’t last forever. It lasted a hundredth of a second. But as you experienced it, time actually slowed down, which is why your memory of it is so intense.

The two hours you just spent watching TV—it went by in a flash.

In Interstellar, Dr. Amelia Brand (played by Anne Hathaway) says that time can stretch and squeeze and do all sorts of things, but it can never run backward. But boy, can it stretch and squeeze.

The amazing thing is, the nonlinearity of time as we experience it is represented in the financial markets.

Time and Volatility

If I have an option to buy stock, the more time goes by without the stock moving in the money, the more the value of the option will decay. It will be worth less because there is less time to go until expiration.

But when the stock is volatile, there’s more time for it to go in the money, which increases the value of the option, slowing down the decay from the passage of time.

Think about it: more volatility, more exciting—time as we experience it begins to slow down.

As the stock returns to normal and things become boring again, the decay resumes and the option is worth less.

I think I understood options once I figured out that time and volatility work in opposite directions.

But I really understood options when I realized that time was nonlinear.

Nonlinear Work

Here’s a question: If you’re not a teacher or a dentist and you’re in one of these 99% boredom/1% terror occupations, why do you come to work every day?

If your work environment is nonlinear, why is your work linear?

In all seriousness, there is a lot of unstructured time on a trading desk. This is how so many people end up betting on sports.

But that’s not even the problem. The problem is that people think they have to trade every day in order to make money.

The most money I ever made trading, I probably traded about 20 days out of the year. I only traded when markets were volatile and exciting, giving me more opportunities, because—time had slowed down.

These guys sitting in day trading firms, spending all day trying to scalp pennies out of stuff when the market isn’t even moving… I would rather pump gas. Seriously. But if you told your boss that you were only going to work 20 days out of the year, you’d probably get fired.

Stupid.

Finance is nonlinear. Most people approach it linearly, with predictable results. If you’ve reached the age of n and you don’t know what the second derivative is, you should probably take a calculus refresher before you do any more damage to your portfolio.

Jared Dillian
Jared Dillian

The article The 10th Man: 99% Boredom, 1% Sheer Terror was originally published at mauldineconomics.com.

| Digg This Article
 -- Published: Thursday, 4 June 2015 | E-Mail  | Print  | Source: GoldSeek.com

comments powered by Disqus



 



Increase Text SizeDecrease Text SizeE-mail Link of Current PagePrinter Friendly PageReturn to GoldSeek.com

 news.goldseek.com >> Story

E-mail Page  | Print  | Disclaimer 


© 1995 - 2017



GoldSeek.com Supports Kiva.org

© GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC

The content on this site is protected by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of GoldSeek.com and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on GoldSeek.com. This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other features found on the site. Please contact us for any further information.

Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer

The views contained here may not represent the views of GoldSeek.com, its affiliates or advertisers. GoldSeek.com makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics, analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained on or within this website, without the express written consent of GoldSeek.com, is strictly prohibited. In no event shall GoldSeek.com or its affiliates be liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon the information provided herein.