-- Published: Tuesday, 9 June 2015 | Print | Disqus
By Stewart Thomson
1. Please click here now. Thatís a seasonal chart for gold. Iíve highlighted my key buying and profit booking areas.
2. June is the most important time of the year to buy gold.
3. Unfortunately, by the time this vital month gets underway, most gold analysts and investors are too afraid to take any action.
4. They are forced to buy at much higher prices. Religion-oriented buying in India pushes gold relentlessly higher into August and September, in what is typically the yearís most powerful rally.
5. This has happened for decades. Clearly, the more things supposedly change, the more they stay the same.
6. Timid investors tend to fail, and brave ones tend to prosper. Thatís a key part of ďfinancial lifeĒ, and I donít see any event on the horizon that will change it.
7. Technically, goldís daily chart is in ďtextbookĒ syncĒ with seasonality. Please click here now. Note the fabulous position of my 14,7,7 series Stochastics oscillator, at the bottom of the chart.
8. Gold also tends to sell off going into the US jobs report, and then rally nicely in the days following the report.
9. On that note, please click here now. Thatís the hourly bars chart for gold, with Fridayís ďjobs report lowĒ highlighted.
10. Contrary opinion is a key indicator I use to suggest whether the next trending move is up, down, or sideways. I would estimate that about 70% of gold analysts are too afraid to buy any gold right now. Thatís the kind of number that typically fuels solid gold price rallies!
11. Amateur investors need to think carefully about how to apply contrary opinion to their own investing. Most investors are usually wrong about market direction. Thus, itís important for the amateur investor to bet against their own analysis. Thatís a hard thing to do, but itís a critical part of successful investing.
12. Please click here now. Thatís the daily chart of the US dollar versus the Japanese yen. The price action of this currency cross has historically been a key indicator of future gold price action.
13. My Stochastics sell signal in play on that chart should provide comfort for the professional investor who buys gold in June. As China and India play an ever-bigger role in daily gold price discovery, the importance of this dollar/yen chart is waning.
14. For now, itís still a decent gold price forecasting tool, and it suggests a nice gold rally is beginning!
15. Please click here now. Thatís the Dow Transports monthly chart. Horrifically, when I look at it, the story of Icarus comes to mind.
16. Rules arenít made to be broken, and Dow Theory has certain rules that are time-tested. When the Dow Transports disintegrate, itís a dire warning for global stock market investors.
17. Note the emerging sell signal on the TRIX indicator on that Transports chart. The key 5,15 moving average series is also verging on a massive sell signal.
18. Please click here now. Itís imperative that Janet Yellen hikes rates soon. The ďrealĒ economy has been disintegrating since the late 1990s, because money velocity has been tumbling since then.
19. QE only added to the deflationary fire. The money supply has been dramatically enlarged because of QE, but the banks need higher rates as an incentive to make aggressive loans to businesses. Until Janet hikes rates, M2V will continue to languish, and so will the economy.
20. Also, Americaís population is aging. Savers have been destroyed by the low interest rates. Only the US government has really benefited from these rates, as it has been able to expand exponentially in size, like a bully expanding his reach on a school playground.
21. The technical deterioration of the Dow Transports suggests that Janetís patience with government over-spending and size is wearing thin. The market appears to be anticipating rate hikes. The US government is becoming the single largest component of the US economy. Horrifically, the main product of the American empire is now red tape. Janet makes her next FOMC announcement on June 17. I doubt she hikes rates then, but I hope she does.
22. Borrowing costs will rise for the US government as Janet hikes rates, and Iíll clap enthusiastically as she makes that move. Global stock markets could crash, but the only way to raise the employment participation rate and the inflation rate is to increase the velocity of money.
23. All roads lead to gold, silver, and gold mining/jewellery stocks, in the coming reflationary era. Please click here now. Thatís the daily chart for silver. Look at the position of my Stochastics oscillator, with lead line at nine! Silver is my favoured metal in the ďreflationary eraĒ.
24. Please click here now. Thatís the GDXJ chart. Itís no secret that junior gold and silver stocks are the darling of the Western gold community. Arguably, America was built by men and women in overalls, and destroyed by bankers wearing suits. Junior gold mining companies give investors a chance to relive what made America an empire, and bet against what is probably going to burn it down. From a short term technical perspective, GDXJ looks spectacular. Note the bullish hook appearing on my Stochastics oscillator. Gold stocks swoon going into June, much like America swooned going into the year 1776. Was America a buy in 1776? Are gold stocks a buy in June? The answer to both questions is obviouslyÖ yes!
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Stewart Thomson is a retired Merrill Lynch broker. Stewart writes the Graceland Updates daily between 4am-7am. They are sent out around 8am-9am. The newsletter is attractively priced and the format is a unique numbered point form. Giving clarity of each point and saving valuable reading time.
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Stewart Thomson is no longer an investment advisor. The information provided by Stewart and Graceland Updates is for general information purposes only. Before taking any action on any investment, it is imperative that you consult with multiple properly licensed, experienced and qualified investment advisors and get numerous opinions before taking any action. Your minimum risk on any investment in the world is: 100% loss of all your money. You may be taking or preparing to take leveraged positions in investments and not know it, exposing yourself to unlimited risks. This is highly concerning if you are an investor in any derivatives products. There is an approx $700 trillion OTC Derivatives Iceberg with a tiny portion written off officially. The bottom line:
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-- Published: Tuesday, 9 June 2015 | E-Mail | Print | Source: GoldSeek.com