Advertise | Bookmark | Contact Us | E-Mail List |  | Update Page | UraniumSeek.com 

Commentary : Gold Review : Markets : News Wire : Quotes : Silver : Stocks - Main Page 

 GoldSeek.com >> News >> Story  Disclaimer 
 
Latest Headlines

Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up: Gold and Silver Fall Over 2% and 3% on the Week
By: Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report

COT Gold, Silver and US Dollar Index Report - August 17, 2018
By: GoldSeek.com

Why the uranium price must go up
By: Richard (Rick) Mills

Gold Miners’ Q2’18 Fundamentals
By: Adam Hamilton, CPA

“Printing Money” and Cocaine
By: Gary Christenson

The next major gold rally
By: Steven Saville

What Gold is Not
By: Gary Tanashian

Here’s How “External Dollar Debt” Produces An “Emerging Market Crisis”
By: John Rubino

Will Erdogan Save Turkey and Help Gold?
By: Arkadiusz Sieron

This Week’s Golden Nuggets
By: GoldCore

 
Search

GoldSeek Web

 
Gold: Surviving the Last Few Months of the Bear Market Part III


 -- Published: Tuesday, 16 June 2015 | Print  | Disqus 

By Gary Savage

So I’m starting to see lots of chatter about traders preparing to back up the truck when gold reaches $1000. First off, if you believe like I do, that this was a mostly manufactured bear market by the bullion banks in order to stretch price as low as possible before the next phase of the bull market begins, then there’s no way it’s going to be that easy.

To begin with, if there’s anything I have learned over the years, it’s that almost no one is able to pull the trigger in real time during a bloodbath phase (the final 5-7 days of an intermediate degree decline). So it’s all fine and dandy to make plans to buy hand over fist when gold reaches $1000, but in real time as the losses are mounting day after day panic can lay waste to the best laid plans, and I have found that very few traders are able to think clearly enough to follow their plan during the last few days of an intermediate decline. The panic phase is just too intense.

While you may have a set price in mind where you think the bottom is going to occur, as that real time panic sets in traders always have doubts. So while it’s easy to envision a bottom at $1000 right now in a fairly serene low volatility market, what happens in real time is that volatility surges, and as price approaches your target your emotions start to conjure up scenarios where gold goes to $900, or $800, or $700. So in real time traders almost always end up like a deer in headlights unable to pull the trigger for fear that the bottom will not occur where they think it will.

Now let’s backtrack to that idea that the bullion banks are trying to artificially stretch the price of gold as low as possible before allowing the secular bull market to resume. If you believe like I do that this was a big contributing factor in this bear market then I think we have to assume that there is very little chance gold is going to bottom at $1000 and make it that easy for everyone to get on board the next leg of the bull market. I’m going to suggest that the odds are very high that this bear market will bottom not with a nice tidy moved to $1000, or even a bit early at $1050 or $1100, but almost certainly as an overshoot to the downside.

If we assume that the bullion banks want to stretch price as low as possible before they release it to the upside, then the strategy most suitable for triggering a massive high-volume washout would be to sucker longs into the market with a fake bottom at $1000 and then to run those stops and force everyone who bought to puke up their shares during a volatile stop run below that level.

gold broken support

gold washout phase

So while one can probably start buying at $1000 you should keep some dry powder available because I seriously doubt this 8 year cycle low is going to make things as tidy and neat and easy as buying at $1000 and then sitting back to get rich.

Gary Savage, Smart Money Tracker

| Digg This Article
 -- Published: Tuesday, 16 June 2015 | E-Mail  | Print  | Source: GoldSeek.com

comments powered by Disqus



 



Increase Text SizeDecrease Text SizeE-mail Link of Current PagePrinter Friendly PageReturn to GoldSeek.com

 news.goldseek.com >> Story

E-mail Page  | Print  | Disclaimer 


© 1995 - 2018



GoldSeek.com Supports Kiva.org

© GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC

The content on this site is protected by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of GoldSeek.com and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on GoldSeek.com. This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other features found on the site. Please contact us for any further information.

Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer

The views contained here may not represent the views of GoldSeek.com, its affiliates or advertisers. GoldSeek.com makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics, analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained on or within this website, without the express written consent of GoldSeek.com, is strictly prohibited. In no event shall GoldSeek.com or its affiliates be liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon the information provided herein.