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Technical charts close to breakout for gold

 -- Published: Thursday, 18 June 2015 | Print  | Disqus 

By Peter Cooper

After more than two years of being trapped in a narrow trading range and four years into a bear market is the gold price about to breakout to the upside as the Fed can’t raise rates once Greece tips the global financial system into chaos?

Well the gold price will be the last thing anybody is concerned about when that happens. There will be much bigger fish to fry. But gold and silver prices look set to rise and not fall as in the 2008-9 crisis.

Different this time

That’s because it is going to be a different kind of crisis this time around. Where will Chinese stock market speculators put their money when the balloon goes up? US treasuries? Even the Chinese central bank won’t buy them any longer. Shanghai was down 3.7 per cent today and gold up two per cent.

Where will frightened German investors run to? They expanded their gold purchases in Q1 as the Greek crisis grew. Likely as not gold will be their safe haven of choice again.

Of course we have no idea exactly how the Greek default and exit from the euro will pan out. Nobody does and that is the classic uncertainty, 348 billion euros of it. Markets just will not like it at all.

European markets have been inflated by money printing this year to levels that are wholly out of synch with economic circumstances. Now they will make a correction and a vicious one.

But who holds the Greek debt and will take the cost of default? This is not going to be entirely painless.

At the same time there is monumental complacency on Wall Street about a US recovery that is running out of steam thanks to a high dollar and rising interest rates. A correction in stocks is also well overdue.

Wall Street Crash

But if global bond markets are pushing interest rates up then bonds won’t be much of a safe haven as they fall in value as rates go up.

Then again what are the central banks going to do if financial markets go through another rough patch? They can only do one thing and that is print money and buy gold.

What’s the asset class that benefits most from money printing and central bank buying? Precious metals. That’s why prices rose after yesterday’s less strident tone from the Fed, and they are going to rise a lot higher.

Gold at $1,200 this afternoon is only $8 off the point at which technical analysts turn bullish…

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 -- Published: Thursday, 18 June 2015 | E-Mail  | Print  | Source:

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