-- Published: Tuesday, 7 July 2015 | Print | Disqus
By Avi Gilburt
First published Fri Jul 3 for members: “Gold is what will save you.” “Gold will protect you from financial calamity.” And on and on. As Greece burned, and as Puerto Rico runs into “issues,” we hear the same drivel from the same culprits week after week, month after month, and year after year. And, I just can’t take it anymore.
At what point do people begin to be honest with themselves? At what point do they take off the blinders? At what point do they attempt to see the truth before their eyes? I am sorry folks, but gold has simply not reacted in the manner in which these oracles have expected. What is worse is that it has reacted in the exact opposite manner.
This brings me back several years when all these same oracles were so confident that gold was going to skyrocket due to Quantitative Easing. I mean, it made so much sense from a “fundamental” standpoint, did it not? The only problem is that no one told gold that it was supposed to rally on fundamental news. You see, gold has been waiting for what normally drives it: market sentiment. And until the market sentiment is ripe for metals to rally, no news or fundamentals will trigger “the rally” for which everyone seems to be waiting.
But, sentiment is still pointing us lower. Last weekend, I noted that “[a]s long as the GLD remains below the 117.70 premarket high struck on June 18th, we are set up to see lower lows in this market in the very near term.” I also noted that if we “should strongly break the 111.65, with follow through below 110.65, then I am looking for the heart of wave iii of (3) down to be in progress, with my next target being the 105 region. And, again, it would take a move through the 117.70 level to make me reconsider this perspective.”
This past week, GLD remained below the noted resistance, and continued to meander lower. However, if you only look at the market hours action, GLD really did not provided us with a strong break of 111.65 (.618 extension of waves (1) and (2)), but it did see a spike and reversal below that region in the pre-market trading. And, at no time did we break below the 110.65 level (.764 extension of waves (1) and (2)). Amazingly, this can still count as the bottom of the red wave i of (3) down, and we can still see a wave ii rally early in the coming week. As I noted last week, the sh