-- Published: Sunday, 26 July 2015 | Print | Disqus
By Peter Cooper
Famously controversial futurologist, economist and business cycle expert Martin Armstrong, who forecast ‘$5,000+’ an ounce gold for 2016 on November 7th 2009 more than five years ago, now says gold touched rock bottom last week.
His website comment last week said: ‘If we hold $1,084 for the weekly closing, then we can see a two week bounce and everyone will proclaim the low, so hurry up and buy more.’
Gold’s rising now
Gold bounced back to $1,099 at the close of last week, comfortably beating this bottom-marker and proclaiming the end of the recent sell-off.
The precious metal has tested a critical 50 per cent retracement of its bull market run. That is to say it fell to the mid-point between its $1,923 top in 2011 and $247 starting point in 2000.
Dr. Armstrong’s doomsday downside to the gold price is now not going to happen. He had warned: ‘If we close below these numbers, then we can see a two week panic to the downside and a test of the 1980 high. If that unfolds, then the latter target may be further down. So we play it by the numbers.’
So will gold prices now head to $5,000-plus as the world enters a second global financial crisis of unimaginable dimensions? That is what this forecaster said would happen next year more than five years ago (click here).
He’s been right many times before, and his prognosis for the gold price outlook in 2009 was also very accurate… Back then he commented: ‘We should see a temporary high in 2010-11 with a retest of support in 2012-13 with a rally into 2016.’ He also got the ‘explosive rally’ of 2011 spot on target.
Debt deflation spiral
The crucial difference between Dr. Armstrong and most gold forecasters is that he has always argued that it would not be consumer price inflation that sent gold prices rocketing upwards but a general loss of confidence in governments and by extension paper money or sovereign bonds in a period of deflation.
And what are we seeing today as China deals with its stock market crash and the eurozone struggles with Greece? Deflation led by commodity prices and a loss of liquidity as bond markets dry up. The US is not going to be immune from these pressures, and is also carrying a huge debt.
Gold may have just had its nemesis, the real problems are just starting for other asset classes.
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-- Published: Sunday, 26 July 2015 | E-Mail | Print | Source: GoldSeek.com