Advertise | Bookmark | Contact Us | E-Mail List |  | Update Page | UraniumSeek.com 

Commentary : Gold Review : Markets : News Wire : Quotes : Silver : Stocks - Main Page 

 GoldSeek.com >> News >> Story  Disclaimer 
 
Latest Headlines

Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up: Gold and Silver Fall Less Than 1% on the Week
By: Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report

The Yield Curve Flattens And Bank Stocks Plunge. Here’s The Connection – And The Prediction
By: John Rubino

COT Gold, Silver and US Dollar Index Report - December 14, 2018
By: GoldSeek.com

Gold in the Short, Medium, and Long Term
By: David Brady, CFA

Gerald Celente: Central Banks Can’t Stop a 2019 Debt Disaster
By: Mike Gleason

Gold-Stock Triple Breakout
By: Adam Hamilton, CPA

Trump Need’s NOPEC, not OPEC
By: Marin Katusa

Crash alert!
By: Bill Holter

US National Debt Spiraling Out of Control, New Record Coming!
By: David Morgan

GoldSeek Radio Nugget: Gerald Celente and Chris Waltzek
By: radio.GoldSeek.com

 
Search

GoldSeek Web

 
The 10th Man: Boot and Rally


 -- Published: Thursday, 13 August 2015 | Print  | Disqus 

By Jared Dillian 

In my new office, that I had just rented, after starting my own newsletter business: The Daily Dirtnap.

You see, I had just walked away from a job at Barclays Capital, which had bought the Lehman broker-dealer out of bankruptcy. They had offered me a seat trading ETFs, just like I’d been doing at Lehman. I turned it down. I loved working at Lehman Brothers, but I could not see myself trading ETFs for even one more day.

I also turned down what likely would have been a sizable retention bonus. I walked away from a job—and a lot of money—right in the middle of the crisis.

Why?

I’m a Writer

I was an above-average trader. Not great. Just above average. I was working on being great, but stuff like that takes a while. I had talent for trading, but not as much as some of the people I worked with.

But I knew I could write. As early as 2003, I had entertained the idea of starting a financial newsletter. It was a good thing I didn’t do it then. I needed more seasoning.

So I formed an LLC and rented office space and got a website and a computer. You should have seen my office. Maybe 60 square feet, no windows. It was a bit claustrophobic at times.

Especially when I went to work every day and watched the market melt down 6% at a time, and I was staring down the barrel of no subscriptions and no revenue, after having turned down a massive opportunity at Barclays.  It was starting to look like I’d made a huge mistake.

So every day I would go into work, and the first thing I would do was to puke in the trash can. I puked in the trash can every morning for a couple of months.

How could you not? Do you remember how bad it got?

GE was trading at 6.

Bank of America was trading at 3.

Citigroup was trading at 99 cents!

Everyone thought the world was coming to an end. I thought to myself, is every bank going to fail? Can the FDIC cover this?

You have to remember that from the time of the Lehman bankruptcy to the day the market bottomed was a little less than six months.

Six months of hell.

The VIX got to about 90. I will probably never see anything like that again. A multi-generational crisis.

But you know what? It worked out.

My first big trade idea was gold. It had hit $1,000/ounce when Bear Stearns collapsed but had sold off 30% to $700.

I was so bullish, I had veins popping out of my neck. The quantitative easing (that I also predicted) was going to cause inflation, hence, good for gold.

QE never did cause inflation, but it caused the fear of inflation, and that was enough.

The Daily Dirtnap was creating a surprising amount of buzz, and I ended up having a great year in 2009, my first year.

Lucky, good, doesn’t matter. I was happy to be alive.

Capitulation

I’ve traded through two of the four big bear markets in the last 100 years. I’m not in the business of catching falling knives, but we’re close to a bottom right now—in commodities. In mining and energy in particular, the pain is just as bad as it was in the financial markets in 2002. Maybe even worse.

Barron’s said the same thing over the weekend. Of course, all the wiseguy hedge fund dudes I hang out with said that Barron’s is the contra-indicator, that they’re always wrong.

Actually, they’re not.

They were royally wrong about Facebook, but they have a pretty good track record in calling the bottom of things. See the stock market post-9/11.

A few weeks ago in The 10th Man, I wrote about distressed commodities, and I’ve written a lot more about it in The Daily Dirtnap, my service for sophisticated investors. Whoever gets this trade right is going to make a lot of money.

Trade Ideas for Smart Investors

The Daily Dirtnap (TDD) has been continuously published since 2008. It comes out nearly every business day, which works out to just about 225 days a year.

It is focused on long-term investable trends—with a daily play-by-play from an experienced trader. I cover a lot of ground over the course of a few days or weeks, from Silicon Valley to economics to equities to interest rates to credit. Even commodities. But nobody, nobody does market psychology better than me.

I don’t have a model portfolio, and I don’t give entry and exit points. The Daily Dirtnap is not that kind of newsletter, which is to say, it’s not for people who are looking to outsource their risk management. That’s why only sophisticated investors should read it.

Then why read it at all?

People rely on TDD for the ideas, the visionary, outside-the-box thinking. And even though I was only an above-average trader, I’ve always been the “idea guy.” I also have a reputation for being irreverent and funny, though I’ve never thought of myself as funny.

Now, for the first time, Mauldin Economics is making The Daily Dirtnap available to its subscribers. It costs $600/year, which sounds high, but I’ve been told repeatedly that my price is too low.

The vast majority of my subscribers are true professional investors: portfolio managers, analysts, market-makers, wealth advisors. So I would only recommend this to people who have a fair amount of experience investing or some formal training in the subject. I cover very complex topics, and I don’t take the time to explain things. I just assume everyone’s on the same page.

TDD is my creation. The people who subscribe all have something in common—they are bright, skeptical, creative thinkers. There are people in this business who are not thinkers. They tend not to be TDD subscribers.

If this interests you, click here to find out more about The Daily Dirtnap and, if you so choose, to sign up for a roller coaster ride of a year in the world of trading.

Jared Dillian
Jared Dillian

If you enjoyed Jared's article, you can sign up for The 10th Man, a free weekly letter, at mauldineconomics.com. Follow Jared on Twitter @dailydirtnap

The article The 10th Man: Boot and Rally was originally published at mauldineconomics.com.

| Digg This Article
 -- Published: Thursday, 13 August 2015 | E-Mail  | Print  | Source: GoldSeek.com

comments powered by Disqus



 



Increase Text SizeDecrease Text SizeE-mail Link of Current PagePrinter Friendly PageReturn to GoldSeek.com

 news.goldseek.com >> Story

E-mail Page  | Print  | Disclaimer 


© 1995 - 2019



GoldSeek.com Supports Kiva.org

© GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC

The content on this site is protected by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of GoldSeek.com and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on GoldSeek.com. This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other features found on the site. Please contact us for any further information.

Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer


Map

The views contained here may not represent the views of GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC, its affiliates or advertisers. GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics, analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained on or within this website, without the express written consent of GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC, is strictly prohibited. In no event shall GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC or its affiliates be liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon the information provided herein.