Advertise | Bookmark | Contact Us | E-Mail List |  | Update Page | UraniumSeek.com 

Commentary : Gold Review : Markets : News Wire : Quotes : Silver : Stocks - Main Page 

 GoldSeek.com >> News >> Story  Disclaimer 
 
Latest Headlines

Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up: Gold and Silver Close with Modest Losses but Miners Gain on the Week
By: Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report

Ira Epstein's Metals Video 11 24 2017
By: Ira Epstein

Life Under Manipulation
By: Theodore Butler

Legendary investor names his top junior resource stock picks right now
By: Peter Spina, President, CEO of GoldSeek.com & SilverSeek.com

Silver Miners’ Q3’17 Fundamentals
By: Adam Hamilton, CPA

Deflation must be embraced
By: Alasdair Macleod

Gold’s 47-Year Bull Market
By: Steven Saville

Taxes, Macro Signals, Seasonality, US Stocks and Gold Miners
By: Gary Tanashian

The Key to Profitably Ending Precious Metals Price Suppression And Other Markets Manipulation!
By: Deepcaster

The Precious Metals Bears' Fear of Fridays
By: Dimitri Speck

 
Search

GoldSeek Web

 
Is It Time To Get Bullish Or Bearish Of Metals And Miners?


 -- Published: Wednesday, 21 October 2015 | Print  | Disqus 

By Avi Gilburt

First published Sat Oct 17 for members:  What has always fascinated me is how people react counter-intuitively when it comes to financial markets. 

In our everyday lives, we are so focused on finding the best prices for anything we want to purchase.  We expend a significant amount of effort into finding the “deal” on televisions, cars, jewelry, furniture, or anything else that carries a high price tag. 

Yet, that same perspective does not seem to carry over into the financial markets.  Rather, the higher the price moves in the financial markets, the more we want to buy it.  Hence, the higher gold seems to rally, the more bullish the market gets.  But, as I have been saying, it may still be premature to believe that the next phase of the long term bull market has begun.

When the GLD broke out over 112 this past week, it should have acted as a warning to those immediately bearish, which is exactly what I said in the Market Update I sent out to members on Wednesday.

With the move in gold/GLD, it has opened the door for the metals and miners to head higher still in what I am counting as a corrective rally.  Yet, I have to note that silver is clearly the weakest of the three attached charts, and it may be providing us the best topping signal of all.  Silver seems to be within an ending diagonal for this final move higher.  And within that ending diagonal, it looks like it needs at least one and, maybe even two, moves higher within the confines of its diagonal pattern.  A break down below the 15.60-15.80 support level is our first confirmation of the breakdown of this structure.  But, again, the upside pattern looks incomplete at this time.

Running a close second is the GDX, which also seems to be completing an ending diagonal.  I have attached an 8 minute chart to show that this is likely in the wave (iv) of the ending diagonal, which means we have one more spike higher into the 17.50-18 region to complete this diagonal.  Once the target region is struck, we should see a strong reaction to the downside which would be the initial signal that the market has reversed and is setting up for lower lows. And, as I have said repeatedly, an impulsive break down below the blue box on the daily chart is the signal that we are heading to lower lows.

Lastly, when it comes to GLD, I have noted the potential topping target within a blue box between 115-118GLD.  But, since GLD has been much stronger than the rest of the metals complex, I am still going to maintain the rest of the micro pattern in place in the event that it does complete a larger degree 5 waves off the recent lows.  Completing 5 waves up to signal a bottom being in place is not my expectation at this point in time, as I think it is more likely we will top within the target box, and begin the purple wave (5) to a lower low. 

For now, 110.70-112 is support for GLD.  As long as it holds that support, I expect it to test the 115-118 region next.  A move up to that next target region will also raise support up to 112-113.30.  And, a break down below that support region from our higher target will be our initial signal that we are heading down to conclude purple wave (5).  And, again, my current expectation is that we will turn down to lower lows from that target region.

As an aside, I have spoken about the potential that the metals begin to trade directionally in conjunction with the equity markets rather than opposite to them, as they have been since 2011.  So, I find it interesting that we seem to be quite close to a potential top in the equity markets along with a potential top in the metals.  And, if they all top together and begin to decline to their final lows, it is quite possible we can still see the lows for the metals complex within 2015.

Lastly, for those that are interested in trading this complex before the final lows have been confirmed, Larry White, who runs our Short-Term Trading service for miners, has earned total returns exceeding 150% for this year.  So, feel free to come trade with Larry, who will provide you with entries and exits for the 3X miner ETF’s.

See charts illustrating the wave counts on the GLD, GDX and YI at https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/scharts/Charts-on-GDX-GLD-YI-20151020865.html

Avi Gilburt is a widely followed Elliott Wave technical analyst and author of ElliottWaveTrader.net (www.elliottwavetrader.net), a live Trading Room featuring his intraday market analysis (including emini S&P 500, metals, oil, USD & VXX), interactive member-analyst forum, and detailed library of Elliott Wave education.


| Digg This Article
 -- Published: Wednesday, 21 October 2015 | E-Mail  | Print  | Source: GoldSeek.com

comments powered by Disqus



 



Increase Text SizeDecrease Text SizeE-mail Link of Current PagePrinter Friendly PageReturn to GoldSeek.com

 news.goldseek.com >> Story

E-mail Page  | Print  | Disclaimer 


© 1995 - 2017



GoldSeek.com Supports Kiva.org

© GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC

The content on this site is protected by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of GoldSeek.com and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on GoldSeek.com. This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other features found on the site. Please contact us for any further information.

Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer

The views contained here may not represent the views of GoldSeek.com, its affiliates or advertisers. GoldSeek.com makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics, analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained on or within this website, without the express written consent of GoldSeek.com, is strictly prohibited. In no event shall GoldSeek.com or its affiliates be liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon the information provided herein.