Advertise | Bookmark | Contact Us | E-Mail List |  | Update Page | 

Commentary : Gold Review : Markets : News Wire : Quotes : Silver : Stocks - Main Page >> News >> Story  Disclaimer 
Latest Headlines

Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up: Gold and Silver Find Slight Gains on the Week
By: Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report

Ira Epstein's Metals Video 10 19 2018
By: Ira Epstein

COT Gold, Silver and US Dollar Index Report - October 19, 2018

Gold Is Becoming Cool Again
By: John Rubino

Inflection Point for Gold
By: David Brady, CFA

Gold-Stock Sentiment Shifting
By: Adam Hamilton, CPA

Gold’s Official Price is $42, and maybe that’s a Good Thing
By: JP Koning

GoldSeek Radio Nugget: Ralph Acampora and Chris Waltzek

Is Your Portfolio Ready for the Greatest Demographic Shift in History?
By: Marin Katusa

Is Bitcoin Ever A Buy-And-Hold?
By: Avi Gilburt


GoldSeek Web

Dollar Decline Cycle

 -- Published: Wednesday, 21 October 2015 | Print  | Disqus 

By Gary Christenson

The US Dollar Index hit a low in 1995, a high in 2002, a low in 2008, and a recent high in 2015.  Examine the following 20 year chart of the dollar.


Note that the vertical blue lines are 79 months apart and show approximate low, high, low, and high cycle extremes.  I have noted the dates for the weekly low and high closes near the green and red circles.

Now look at a similar chart of the S&P from a month ago.


Dollar lows (May 95 and Mar 08) were separated by about a year from S&P lows (June 94 and March 09), and dollar highs (Feb. 02 and Mar 15) occurred near S&P highs (Aug 02 and May 15).

What else?

  • The last dollar high (February 2002) was followed by about 6 years of declining dollar prices until it hit a cycle bottom in 2008.
  • The S&P had already begun a decline of over 50% by the last dollar top in 2002.
  • The S&P looks like it has currently begun a decline from its May 2015 top that is consistent with the dollar peak in March 2015. More QE or not, look out below!
  • If that 6.5 year dollar high-low cycle continues, it suggests a dollar low in 2021. The world will be quite different after six years of dollar decline against other currencies and gold.
  • Gold and silver prices will benefit from a multi-year dollar decline and a substantial correction in the S&P.

Geopolitical Fundamentals:

While Russia is bombing ISIS in Syria and consolidating their influence in the middle-east, the US bombed a hospital in Afghanistan and changed the “spin” on the story at least four times.  This could be symbolic of a decline in US leadership and political influence in the middle-east and the beginning of a long-term decline in the US dollar.

China has initiated a global alternative to the SWIFT system – the China International Payments System (CIPS).  This will weaken US global financial control and weaken the US dollar influence on global trade and other economies.

US official national debt exceeds $18 Trillion and unfunded liabilities are perhaps $100 – $220 Trillion. This is a problem – truly an understatement.  However, we are now in the “silly season” when we elect a new president, so publicly speaking about honest accounting, a reasonable tax law, balanced budgets, and sane financial policies has been banned at least until 2017.  Uncontrolled spending, massive and ever-increasing debt, unaddressed structural problems, and lack of political leadership also suggest a continued decline in the dollar.

Support for the US dollar has been based on the “petrodollar” – required purchases of crude oil with dollars – and the US military – accept US Treasury debt in exchange for your goods and oil or face consequences.  Both of these supports for the dollar are clearly weakening, and that indicates additional dollar decline, or collapse, in the years ahead.


  • Expect continued US dollar weakness for several years.
  • Expect stock and bond markets to “regress to the mean” – substantially lower.
  • Expect gold and silver prices to benefit from dollar weakness and US geopolitical difficulties. $5,000 gold will not happen this year but it is quite possible by the election in 2020.  Much higher prices are likely if central banks and governments choose to push the US into a hyperinflationary collapse.
  • And finally, buy gold and silver while supplies at these repressed prices (thank you TBTF banks) are still available.


Investment Research Dynamics     Scandal in Paper Gold/Silver

Goldman Sachs  Welcome to the 3rd Wave

Bill Holter    What Will Happen To Silver and Gold

Gary Christenson

The Deviant Investor

| Digg This Article
 -- Published: Wednesday, 21 October 2015 | E-Mail  | Print  | Source:

comments powered by Disqus


Increase Text SizeDecrease Text SizeE-mail Link of Current PagePrinter Friendly PageReturn to >> Story

E-mail Page  | Print  | Disclaimer 

© 1995 - 2018 Supports

©, Gold Seek LLC

The content on this site is protected by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other features found on the site. Please contact us for any further information.

Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer

The views contained here may not represent the views of, its affiliates or advertisers. makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics, analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained on or within this website, without the express written consent of, is strictly prohibited. In no event shall or its affiliates be liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon the information provided herein.