Advertise | Bookmark | Contact Us | E-Mail List |  | Update Page | UraniumSeek.com 

Commentary : Gold Review : Markets : News Wire : Quotes : Silver : Stocks - Main Page 

 GoldSeek.com >> News >> Story  Disclaimer 
 
Latest Headlines

Gold Miners’ Q3’17 Fundamentals
By: Adam Hamilton, CPA

Bonfire of the Absurdities
By: John Mauldin

The Social Security Inflation Lag Calendar - Partial Indexing Part 1
By: Daniel R. Amerman, CFA

Rob From The Middle Class Economics
By: Gary Christenson

GoldSeek Radio Nugget: John Williams and Chris Waltzek
By: radio.GoldSeek.com

The Metals Market Is A Mess And Will Likely Continue To Frustrate You
By: Avi Gilburt

Is New Fed Chief A “Swamp Critter Extraordinaire”?
By: GoldCore

Asian Metals Market Update: November-17-2017
By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold Holds Near Unchanged While Stocks Gain on Tax Vote
By: Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report

Comparing Digital Metals
By: Craig Hemke

 
Search

GoldSeek Web

 
US$ Breakout Could Unleash Capitulation in Precious Metals


 -- Published: Friday, 13 November 2015 | Print  | Disqus 

By Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT

Last Friday we wrote that precious metals were very oversold and due for a bounce or a pause. We also argued that the overall prognosis remained very bearish. The technicals argue for more downside and sentiment indicators remain far from bearish extremes. The strength in the US$ index is another reason precious metals should remain under pressure. If the US$ index makes a strong break above 100 it could trigger a final wave of liquidation in Gold and Silver.

The US$ index has spent much of this year consolidating and digesting its huge advance from summer 2014 into 2015. After surging nearly 25% within eight months, the greenback has managed to hold above previous resistance (2004-2005 highs and 2008-2010 highs) and the 38% retracement of the advance (at 92). Today it is trading less than 1.2% from a new high. These are signs of strength and typically precede a breakout to the upside rather than a move lower.

Nov132015USD

As one would expect, the very bullish outlook for the US$ stands in contrast to the outlook for precious metals. Below we plot the weekly candle charts of Gold and Silver. The swift decline over the past few weeks confirms that the recent rebound was essentially a retest of the summer breakdown to new lows. When a market breaks a key level it will often retest that break in a counter trend move. The break is confirmed when the market reasserts itself in the direction of the break. That is precisely what has occurred in Gold and Silver over the past few weeks. We should also note that the eight month consolidations project to much lower targets than current levels.

Nov132015metals

A big breakout in the US$ index above 100 would likely coincide with precious metals moving to new lows. Last week we published Gold’s monthly chart which has strong support targets at $970/oz and $890/oz. Gold is trading at $1082/oz as we pen this. Many Gold bulls think that the bear has already gone far enough and that further losses are highly unlikely. While that could make sense in theory, the reality is further losses are definitely possible in the weeks ahead. As Gold bulls we do not want to be buyers until we see a sector that becomes extremely oversold and is trading near strong support levels amid extreme bearish sentiment. As we navigate the end of this bear market, consider learning more about our premium service including our favorite junior miners which we expect to outperform into 2016.

Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT

Jordan@TheDailyGold.com


| Digg This Article
 -- Published: Friday, 13 November 2015 | E-Mail  | Print  | Source: GoldSeek.com

comments powered by Disqus



 



Increase Text SizeDecrease Text SizeE-mail Link of Current PagePrinter Friendly PageReturn to GoldSeek.com

 news.goldseek.com >> Story

E-mail Page  | Print  | Disclaimer 


© 1995 - 2017



GoldSeek.com Supports Kiva.org

© GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC

The content on this site is protected by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of GoldSeek.com and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on GoldSeek.com. This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other features found on the site. Please contact us for any further information.

Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer

The views contained here may not represent the views of GoldSeek.com, its affiliates or advertisers. GoldSeek.com makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics, analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained on or within this website, without the express written consent of GoldSeek.com, is strictly prohibited. In no event shall GoldSeek.com or its affiliates be liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon the information provided herein.