By now you have heard the news of a Russian fighter being shot down over Turkey.  There are conflicting reports as to whether the plane was in Turkish or Syrian airspace.  Another unknown is whether the plane was shot down from the air or ground.  Also conflicting as to whether the pilots were dead prior to landing, or executed while parachuting down or after landing.  Add to this the destruction of a Russian search helicopter by an anti tank "TOW". 

  The ramifications of these events are mind boggling to say the least.  While sitting down to write this, a news conference between presidents Obama and Hollande is being televised.  I do not want to diminish the horror of the recent attacks in Paris and Belgium but what just happened in Turkey is far more important for several reasons.  Thankfully they received questions regarding the Russian shootdown (maybe they were not U.S. reporters doing the questioning?).

  Please understand, no matter how you look at the downing of the Russian fighter jet, "we" did it.  Turkey is a member of NATO and the weapons used are of western origin.  Turkey would never have done this without a green light given to them.  They cannot even say "oops, our trigger finger slipped" as they claim to have warned the Russian fighter 10 times or more.  The fact that the plane crashed on Syrian land shows even if they were in Turkish airspace, they were only a driver and pitching wedge across the border and on their way out.  This genie cannot ever be put back in the bottle.

  Judging by President Putin's immediate statements afterward, we can now look forward to some sort of retaliation.  Most importantly, he claims "ISIS" has been selling oil into Turkey to fund their military operations.  Is this true?  I cannot prove or disprove it but the actions of war require funding and ISIS obviously has funding and "somehow" Western arms and munitions.  No matter how you slice it, the West will now be seen in a different light both in current time and historically.  I can only hope to God this does not spawn WWIII but am afraid this is exactly where it's headed because episode pits the U.S. versus Russia directly.

   The following is how I see it, "in my opinion".  I believe this episode was no mistake and was fully planned.  I think the "stress" on the Western financial system is coming to a full blown head and can no longer be hidden like the crazy aunt in the basement.  As I have said all along, the collapse when it comes will need "cover" to hide the real and true cause.  Starting a war with Russia even as unthinkable and unwinnable for anyone as it is will only serve to cover the foundational policy flaws of the Ponzi scheme.

  The West is patently broke.  Our standard of living can no longer be "funded" with debt.  The current negative swap rates I believe are evidence of a scarcity of collateral ...the alternative being banks and brokers truly are a better credit risk than sovereign debt.  We also know gold is in scarcity because the negative GOFO rates.  If you look to COMEX registered inventories you will see they are almost gone and amount to 150,000 ounces heading into what is the biggest delivery month of the year.  The list goes on and on but suffice it to say, no matter where you look you will see things financial and economic either in decline or collapsing.  You need to "look" for yourself and past the "headlines" and BLS reportings to understand why "now".

  I have long thought Russia and China had a "truth bomb" up their sleeve to be delivered by Mr. Putin.  It has been my opinion he would expose many falsehoods and false flags over the years with hard evidence to back his claims.  Now, should we be involved militarily against Russia much of what he has to deliver will be considered "propaganda" no matter how credible the evidence.  Thank honest journalism for this.

  Another very "current event" is the upcoming meeting of the IMF to either include or exclude China from the SDR.  This vote is scheduled for next Monday.  Ask yourself, would the U.S. like China sitting at "their" table or would they prefer not?  We will soon see the outcome but I believe the neocons have taken over Washington and would like to use anything possible (including war) as a way to cover the reality. 

  A war at this point will kick the table over so to speak.  It can be pointed at as a reason for the collapse of markets, the economy and a reason the Fed cannot even consider raising rates.  I believe we will hear "our policies were working... but".  I also think a war would certainly be reason for "force majeure", particularly in the gold and silver markets.  How convenient would it be should the nonexistent inventory not have to meet the demand for delivery?

  Should war break out and gold move up hundreds of dollars, it can again be easily said "this would never have happened if it were not for the damned Russians".  A force majeure from the current levels would certainly solve the problem of how to cover the shorts used to create the current price.  Collapsing financial markets will be "understood" by a population who wakes up each morning hoping to be "fooled for longer".

  Unfortunately, what comes will arrive with or without a war.  The American population will experience something they have not since 1945, shortages.  The shortages will be blamed on anything but the real thing.  If left on its own, foreigners not willing to accept dollars for trade will be the end result.  Laugh at this if you want to but the world is craving "fair trade" where they get paid "something for something" as opposed to the never pay model currently in effect.  The American public has just been served a very rotten Turkey for Thanksgiving.  The timing in my opinion is anything but random!  

  I would like to say a few words of respect for the passing of Richard Russell.  Sir Richard, the godfather of financial writers passed away yesterday at 91 years old.  He began writing in 1958 and became an iconic source of truth and common sense in the financial world.  I can remember reading his work while still in college, I credit his common sense approach as something I strived to duplicate as a broker and now as a writer.  May God rest your soul Sir Richard! 

I wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving!
 
Standing watch,