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In your face "Black Swan"!

 -- Published: Sunday, 20 December 2015 | Print  | Disqus 

By Bill Holter

  Normally it's not a good idea to write about the same subject twice in a row because not much can be added and reader boredom sets in.  What happened last Wednesday deserves another look because I believe it marked a huge pivot point and very few are even talking about it.  Last Wednesday the Fed raised rates one quarter of a point but that was not the big story.  The big story was the about face the U.S. did geopolitically!  


  We saw markets around the world convulse on Thursday and Friday.  All attention has focused on the Fed rate hike which no doubt was a contributor.  How wise was it for the Fed to tighten credit conditions on a system already struggling and burdened with debt?  There is no arguing we have systemically moved from the 2008 crisis which is now widely understood as a "credit event", into an even more highly levered situation.  The recovery that never was is now met with a central bank's policy error.

  I believe the "tell" on Friday was a weak dollar.  Much of what happened in the markets could have been expected as reaction to the Fed tightening credit conditions ...but not a weak dollar.  The meeting between Mr. Lavrov, Mr. Putin and John Kerry far overrides anything the Fed could have done or said in my opinion.  The foreign policy about face where Mr. Assad no longer "needs to go" and Turkey being ordered to withdraw troops from northern Iraq was astonishing!  These statements were followed by Mr. Putin establishing a no fly zone over northern Syria.  In another twist, Turkey still maintains Mr. Assad must go and they are refusing to withdraw troops from Iraq.  When in your lifetime have you ever seen anything like this?  An "ally", ANY ALLY publicly denying U.S. will?  We all saw an IN YOUR FACE BLACK SWAN but few have recognized it yet!

  We have no idea what was "told" to Mr. Kerry, we do however know he was "TOLD" something and in no uncertain terms.  As you know, I have been in the camp thinking Mr. Putin (supported by China) would drop some sort of "truth bomb".  I originally thought this truth bomb would have at least some ties to 911 because the outrage this would create amongst the U.S. population.  No doubt it would create a stir but I'm afraid we are just to dumbed down to really even care anymore.  After pondering this further it occurred to me I have missed the obvious.  What is the ONLY thing the U.S. has left and the final pillar of support?  What is the Achilles heel?  The dollar and the ability to issue endless debt!

  I believe it is a high probability Mr. Kerry was told what he already knows.  Russia and China know, you know, I know, the whole world knows ...the U.S. is broke!  We have "faked" solvency for many years.  The insolvency really appeared in 2007-2008 but "damn the torpedoes, full steam ahead" we went ...  We were even "aided" in this effort to hide our insolvency by China who bought our debt until the 2011-12 timeframe.  In short, we were given enough time and "rope" to hang ourselves!

  I believe it is most likely Mr. Kerry was given an ultimatum by Mr. Putin who spoke on the behalf of China ...either play the game by our rules or we will pull the plug financially on your shell game.  The U.S. has toppled regimes and assassinated rulers over the petrodollar and the recirculation of capital back through our Treasury market.  It is highly likely the threat of wholesale dumping of Treasury securities was unveiled!  Please do not tell me China would never do this, they know the position is ultimately valueless and the reason they have accumulated so much gold and gone all over the world tying up resource properties.  China (and Russia as their bulldog) hold the key to exposing the fraudulent financial system of the West.  Everything, and I do mean EVERYTHING we in the West believe in as value has "Treasuries" as the foundation.  Kill the Treasury market and everything goes.  Stocks, bonds, real estate, pensions, retirement accounts ALL GOES and "power goes with it.  China has the ability to do this!

  Think about this for a moment, Russia and China have been stockpiling physical gold for years.  China is in the process of "pricing" gold with their equivalent to the London fix ...only theirs will be physical where actual physical trades set price as opposed to paper contract shenanigans.  We know gold has been in backwardation in London for quite a while, this impossible market scenario finally reached the COMEX last week.  We also know the December delivery will take everything the COMEX claims to be able to deliver.  Do you really believe Mr. Putin does not know all of this?  Do you really believe he doesn't know the "gold scam" is at the very center of our grand Ponzi scheme?  Mr. Kerry now knows, "they know"?

  Please do not laugh at this because the gold China has been gobbling up has pushed the supply demand equation into deep deficit for quite a few years now ...and the gold had to come from "somewhere".  For the U.S. to all of a sudden acquiesce geopolitically after ruling the world with an iron and immovable fist is a HUGE change.  This "change" obviously has a reason behind it.  The reason can only be military or financial and could be both?  Can a country fight a war if it is bankrupt and cannot finance the war?  Was John Kerry informed of this little inconvenience?

  Rational minds do not want World War III, those who need to cover up fraud must have it.  I can only think the threat of exposure and or destruction of the mechanism (Western financial markets) used to project power has forced the U.S. to back off.  The Fed does not have the power to absorb Chinese selling and no amount of market/mind/media manipulation can stand against the destruction of our paper markets should the Chinese choose to do so.  The other side of the Treasury dump card is of course breaking the paper metals market.  In today's scheme of things, less than half a ham sandwich could do it!  And the irony of it all?  They only need threaten to do this ...

  The above is speculation on my part  but it is obvious "something" really HUGE just changed and the U.S. no longer appears to be calling the shots!  In my eyes it is also obvious "what" it was.  The U.S would not back down for ANY reason other than one financial.  Then one must ask where the U.S. vulnerable?  The ability to issue the world's reserve currency the dollar, the ability to issue unlimited debt and the dirty little "empty secret" called Fort Knox!  I believe we are seeing the very beginnings of a "new world order", decisions are being made where the public can deduce were not "made in America".  This could be a very interesting shortened week after the gyrations Thursday and Friday.  I have said for quite some time, once the unravelling begins it will go very quickly.  We will soon know for sure whether the great unwinding has truly begun.  I believe it has! 


  Could it be the black swan we have been looking for already landed and in your face fashion but very few have recognized it yet?  No one could have foreseen the U.S. being "ordered" to do anything, yet this is exactly what appears happened last week!
Standing watch


Bill Holter for;

Holter/Sinclair collaboration.

Bill Holter writes and is partnered with Jim Sinclair at the newly formed Holter/Sinclair collaboration.

Prior, he wrote for Miles Franklin from 2012-15. Bill worked as a retail stockbroker for 23 years, including 12 as a branch manager at A.G. Edwards. He left Wall Street in late 2006 to avoid potential liabilities related to management of paper assets. In retirement he and his family moved to Costa Rica where he lived until 2011 when he moved back to the United States. Bill was a well-known contributor to the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA) commentaries from 2007-present.

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