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Why did 2008 really happen?

 -- Published: Wednesday, 13 January 2016 | Print  | Disqus 

Mr. Powell from GATA has stated the most accurate commentary in finance in my lifetime, “There are no markets anymore, only interventions.”

I may be alone in this but 2008 was a mistake. Those that seek to control the markets were caught off guard and here is why. The equity markets can be controlled and are controlled. The big banks don’t ever go to zero because stocks tanked. Look at the flash crash and the absurd excuse that a small firm in the Mid-West caused a crash. Are you serious? What that crash accomplished was chart painting and the chart is what gives the computers direction via time and price. In one several hour time period, stops were run and gaps were filled off the Satan low. The pundits on CNBC were able to convince the masses it was a one off and the rest is history.

The events of 2008 occurred because there was no chart and it was in EVERY sense of the word a real market! I define a real market as one that matches buyers and sellers, free from interference of a government pointing a gun or any other dominant player doing the same.

A perfect example of something that parades as a market is the Chinese currency. No one and I mean no one, not Martin Armstrong an Elliott Waver or a world class chartists could have predicted what the Chinese government did the other night in the Yuan. A raise of the cost to borrow to 66% is hardly a characteristic of a market. What’s next, if you short the Yuan and are caught you get shot?

The 2008 downturn was sparked by MBS, CDS and CDO. It was the land of giants but the game was closed to the masses. Only the biggest players were involved and they were all loaded to the gills in the garbage. The only problem was housing is not liquid and data capturing price could not be monitored in real time. What that means is a large firm; hedge fund, pension fund, bank had to do due diligence. They had to buy a security and based on their analysis determine whether it was good buy at a certain price or not. The odd thing about it is there was no way for anyone to intervene in the market to prop up price of the underlying. Buying and selling of homes could be enticed by banks via certain mortgages but no one was holding a gun to the head of the citizens to actually purchase a house.

In other words we had a true market that was completely free from interference. Think about that. Look at all of the different ways in which bonds and stocks can be manipulated by entities throughout the world. Banks, HFT, Central Banks, Governments, Hedge Funds can manipulate any of these markets short term and in a lot of cases VERY long term. But housing is totally different because the masses were in charge and it proved that the smartest people in the room at all of the aforementioned have no idea how to actually trade without manipulation. 2008 proved that to me and it should give everyone hope that when governments finally do lose control we will see something akin to real markets.

It’s a Mystery

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 -- Published: Wednesday, 13 January 2016 | E-Mail  | Print  | Source:

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