Advertise | Bookmark | Contact Us | E-Mail List |  | Update Page | UraniumSeek.com 

Commentary : Gold Review : Markets : News Wire : Quotes : Silver : Stocks - Main Page 

 GoldSeek.com >> News >> Story  Disclaimer 
 
Latest Headlines

SWOT Analysis: Gold Bounced Back After Attempts to Knock Down Price
By: Frank Holmes

Hyperinflation in Zimbabwe – It’s back, but maybe not for long
By: JP Koning

Gold Versus Bitcoin: The Pro-Gold Argument Takes Shape
By: John Rubino

Inflation and Counterfeit Credit
By: Keith Weiner

Gold's Interesting Day
By: Rick Ackerman

Two Scenarios, One Strategy
By: Gary Savage

Zinc One Files a Technical Report on Scotia Property
By: Zinc One Resources Inc.

Money and Markets Infographic Shows Silver Most Undervalued Asset
By: GoldCore

Asian Metals Market Update: November-20-2017
By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

GoldSeek.com Radio: John Williams and Louis Navellier, and your host Chris Waltzek
By: radio.GoldSeek.com

 
Search

GoldSeek Web

 
A Crude Correlation with Canada’s Currency


 -- Published: Monday, 8 February 2016 | Print  | Disqus 

A Monday Morning Musing from Mickey the Mercenary Geologist

 

Canada is the world’s fifth largest oil and gas producer and its energy export revenues are a significant part of the economy. In 2014, energy contributed 10% to Canada’s GDP, 28% of its export revenues were from energy products, and 97% of those energy exports were destined for US markets:

 

Contribution to 2014 Nominal GDP 

 

 

Sources and Destination of Export Revenues

 

(Source: Natural Resources Canada)

 

In early July 2014, the North American benchmark for oil, West Texas Intermediate Crude (WTI), traded at $106 a barrel. Once the US dollar index (DXY) started its big run above 80, the price of oil began to drop and by the beginning of Q4 2014, a worldwide bear market was in full force.

 

At that juncture, WTI was still around trading at $90 a barrel. However, it has continued to spiral downward with few respites over the past 19 months:

 

 

 

Given Canada’s reliance on energy exports, it is not surprising there has been a strong positive correlation between the price of West Texas Intermediate Crude and the value of the Canadian dollar since oil began to fall. Here is the correlation chart from July 1 to September 30, 2014:

 

 

 

Once the bear market for oil hit hard in Q4 2014, this correlation became even stronger. This is the chart for October 1, 2014 to April 30, 2015:

 

 

 

Moreover, as the price of North American oil has continued to decline, the loonie has marched even more in lockstep. Here is the correlation chart from May 1, 2015 to February 4, 2016:  

 

 

 

The increasingly positive correlation of crude and the Canuck currency likely reflects the decline in oil’s contribution to Canadian GDP and export revenues for 2015.

 

This relationship between crude oil and the Canadian dollar reminds us of the strong dependence of that country’s economic health on natural resources extraction and in particular, its petroleum production.

 

Simply put: As goes oil, so goes the loonie, and so goes the Canadian economy. Until the worldwide glut of crude oil is remedied, its fiat currency will undoubtedly remain weak.

 

And while that’s bad for most Canadians, it is good for Americans who like to go shopping on Robson Street.

 

Ciao for now,

 

Mickey Fulp

Mercenary Geologist

 

Acknowledgment: Steve Sweeney is the research assistant for MercenaryGeologist.com.

The Mercenary Geologist Michael S. “Mickey” Fulp is a Certified Professional Geologist with a B.Sc. Earth Sciences with honor from the University of Tulsa, and M.Sc. Geology from the University of New Mexico. Mickey has 35 years experience as an exploration geologist and analyst searching for economic deposits of base and precious metals, industrial minerals, uranium, coal, oil and gas, and water in North and South America, Europe, and Asia.

Mickey worked for junior explorers, major mining companies, private companies, and investors as a consulting economic geologist for over 20 years, specializing in geological mapping, property evaluation, and business development.  In addition to Mickey’s professional credentials and experience, he is high-altitude proficient, and is bilingual in English and Spanish. From 2003 to 2006, he made four outcrop ore discoveries in Peru, Nevada, Chile, and British Columbia. 

 

Mickey is well-known and highly respected throughout the mining and exploration community due to his ongoing work as an analyst, writer, and speaker.

 

Contact: Contact@MercenaryGeologist.com

 

Disclaimer and Notice: I am not a certified financial analyst, broker, or professional qualified to offer investment advice. Nothing in any report, commentary, this website, interview, and other content constitutes or can be construed as investment advice or an offer or solicitation or advice to buy or sell stock or any asset or investment. All of my presentations should be considered an opinion and my opinions may be based upon information obtained from research of public documents and content available on the company’s website, regulatory filings, various stock exchange websites, and stock information services, through discussions with company representatives, agents, other professionals and investors, and field visits. My opinions are based upon information believed to be accurate and reliable, but my opinions are not guaranteed or implied to be so. The opinions presented may not be complete or correct; all information is provided without any legal responsibility or obligation to provide future updates. I accept no responsibility and no liability, whatsoever, for any direct, indirect, special, punitive, or consequential damages or loss arising from the use of my opinions or information. The information contained in a report, commentary, this website, interview, and other content is subject to change without notice, may become outdated, and may not be updated. A report, commentary, this website, interview, and other content reflect my personal opinions and views and nothing more. All content of this website is subject to international copyright protection and no part or portion of this website, report, commentary, interview, and other content may be altered, reproduced, copied, emailed, faxed, or distributed in any form without the express written consent of Michael S. (Mickey) Fulp, MercenaryGeologist.com LLC.

Copyright © 2016 Mercenary Geologist.com, LLC. All Rights Reserved.


| Digg This Article
 -- Published: Monday, 8 February 2016 | E-Mail  | Print  | Source: GoldSeek.com

comments powered by Disqus



 



Increase Text SizeDecrease Text SizeE-mail Link of Current PagePrinter Friendly PageReturn to GoldSeek.com

 news.goldseek.com >> Story

E-mail Page  | Print  | Disclaimer 


© 1995 - 2017



GoldSeek.com Supports Kiva.org

© GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC

The content on this site is protected by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of GoldSeek.com and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on GoldSeek.com. This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other features found on the site. Please contact us for any further information.

Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer

The views contained here may not represent the views of GoldSeek.com, its affiliates or advertisers. GoldSeek.com makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics, analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained on or within this website, without the express written consent of GoldSeek.com, is strictly prohibited. In no event shall GoldSeek.com or its affiliates be liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon the information provided herein.