Advertise | Bookmark | Contact Us | E-Mail List |  | Update Page | UraniumSeek.com 

Commentary : Gold Review : Markets : News Wire : Quotes : Silver : Stocks - Main Page 

 GoldSeek.com >> News >> Story  Disclaimer 
 
Latest Headlines

Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up: Gold and Silver Gain Over 2% on the Week
By: Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report

5 reasons why commodities are the place to be in 2018
By: Richard (Rick) Mills

Loan Shark Nation: Forcing Our Kids To Choose Between Student Loans And Everything Else
By: John Rubino

Why the Debt Ceiling Means Nothing, Yet Everything
By: Nathan McDonald

COT Gold, Silver and US Dollar Index Report - February 16, 2018
By: GoldSeek.com

GDX Weathers Stock Selloff
By: Adam Hamilton, CPA

5 Things to Know About the Chinese New Year
By: U.S. Global Investors

The Dollar and Gold for 2018
By: Gary Christenson

Is The Fed Back To “Quantitative Easing?”
By: Dave Kranzler

GoldSeek Radio Nugget: Arch Crawford and Chris Waltzek
By: radio.GoldSeek.com

 
Search

GoldSeek Web

 
The Markets Are Misreading the Data


 -- Published: Wednesday, 2 March 2016 | Print  | Disqus 

By Graham Summers

 

The US markets are in a quandary.

 

On the one hand, some of the data (GDP growth, unemployment, etc.) suggests the Fed should continue to hike rates. On the other hand, other data points (food stamp usage, labor participation rate) suggest the US never actually entered a real recovery.

 

More importantly, how can the jobs data suggest such a strong employment situation… when one in seven Americans are on food stamps?

 

Let us, consider how the Labor Department calculates the unemployment numbers… those same numbers that the ENTIRE stock market reacts to every few weeks.

 

Every month, the US Government conducts a “Current Population Survey” through which it calls or visits 60,000 US households and asks them questions about their current employment or lack thereof. This usually occurs on the week of the month containing the 12th.

 

Thus, in order for the survey to be accurate...

 

1)   The US Government official has to make the phone call or go in person to the house (there have been some controversies regarding falsifying results).

 

2)   Someone has to pick up the phone or answer the door when the Government employee calls or visits.

 

3)   The person has to agree to an interview regarding the employment status of all members of his or her household with the US Government

 

4)   The person has to answer the interview questions truthfully (more on this shortly).

 

5)   The Labor Department’s economic model has to take this information and accurately render it into a nationwide unemployment number.

 

Thus, for the numbers to be accurate, the person being interviewed has to be willing to talk honestly to the US Government about personal details that could be quite embarrassing.

 

Why is this a problem?

 

Consider that as far back as 2003, 30% of Americans viewed the US Government as an “immediate threat” to their “rights and freedoms.” Post 2008, the number has jumped to just below 50%.

 

Again, nearly half of Americans see the US Government as an “immediate threat.”

 

 http://goldseek.com/news/2016/3-2gs/image002.png

 

Thus, by proxy, roughly half of the people answering the phone or door for the Labor Department’s Current Population Survey have this view. What are the odds these individuals will be forthright and comfortable discussing the details of their family’s employment situation with a US Government official?

 

Even if the official is doing their absolute best to get correct information, the survey respondent might not be totally honest!

 

To top it off, there is debate as to what is the best means of interpreting the raw data. For instance, the Richmond Fed’s NEI measure (which measures those out of the labor force as well as those who are unemployed) puts current unemployment above 8% WAY above the “official” reading of 5.0%!!!

 

 http://goldseek.com/news/2016/3-2gs/image003.jpg

 

Even after all of this, there are the revisions to consider... Heck, the Bureau of Economic Analysis revised three years worth of GDP growth data DOWN from 2.3% to 2.0% in July of last year.

 

For this reason and others, we believe that the recovery has been greatly overstated in the media and that the markets are primed for a collapse. Indeed, we’ve already taken out the bull market trendline dating back to the 2009 bottom.

 

 http://goldseek.com/news/2016/3-2gs/image005.jpg

Another crisis is coming.

  

Best Regards

 

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research


| Digg This Article
 -- Published: Wednesday, 2 March 2016 | E-Mail  | Print  | Source: GoldSeek.com

comments powered by Disqus



 



Increase Text SizeDecrease Text SizeE-mail Link of Current PagePrinter Friendly PageReturn to GoldSeek.com

 news.goldseek.com >> Story

E-mail Page  | Print  | Disclaimer 


© 1995 - 2017



GoldSeek.com Supports Kiva.org

© GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC

The content on this site is protected by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of GoldSeek.com and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on GoldSeek.com. This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other features found on the site. Please contact us for any further information.

Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer

The views contained here may not represent the views of GoldSeek.com, its affiliates or advertisers. GoldSeek.com makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics, analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained on or within this website, without the express written consent of GoldSeek.com, is strictly prohibited. In no event shall GoldSeek.com or its affiliates be liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon the information provided herein.