Advertise | Bookmark | Contact Us | E-Mail List |  | Update Page | UraniumSeek.com 

Commentary : Gold Review : Markets : News Wire : Quotes : Silver : Stocks - Main Page 

 GoldSeek.com >> News >> Story  Disclaimer 
 
Latest Headlines

The Precious Metals Bears' Fear of Fridays
By: Dimitri Speck

The Lemmings are Heading Towards the Cliff...Again
By: Gary Savage

28 Reasons to Buy Physical Gold
By: BullionStar

Is This Gold Rally The Start Of Something Big?
By: Avi Gilburt

GoldSeek Radio Nugget: Peter Grandich and Chris Waltzek
By: radio.GoldSeek.com

GoldSeek Radio Nugget: Andy Schectman and Chris Waltzek
By: radio.GoldSeek.com

Keeping Your Cryptos Safe From Crooks
By: Avi Gilburt with Ryan Wilday

Buy Gold As Fed Shows Uncertainty And Concern Over Financial ‘Imbalances’
By: GoldCore

Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Gain About 1%
By: Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report

Northern Vertex Files Preliminary Economic Assessment Report for the Moss Gold Mine in NW Arizona
By: Northern Vertex Mining Corp.

 
Search

GoldSeek Web

 
Here's the Bounce... Is the REAL Collapse Just Around the Corner?


 -- Published: Tuesday, 15 March 2016 | Print  | Disqus 

By Graham Summers

 

When it comes to analyzing long-term trends, the 10-month moving average has been a great metric for charting long-term bull market vs. bear market changes.

 

The 10-month moving average has been a great metric for charting long-term bull vs. bear market changes.

 

Generally speaking (there are of course exceptions) when stocks break above this line, they’re in a bull market. When they break below it, they’re entering a bear market.

 

However, when you’re transitioning from a bull to a bear market, stocks usually follow a specific pattern in which there is a bounce to “kiss” former support as the bulls attempt to reignite the lost momentum.

 

It is only after the “kiss” (the bulls fail) that the real collapse begins.

 

Again, the pattern is:

 

1)    The initial drop

2)    The rally to “kiss” former support

3)    The REAL drop

 

Here’s how it played out during the last transition to a bear market (’07 to ’08).

 

 http://goldseek.com/news/2016/3-15gs/image002.jpg

 

As you can see, throughout the bull market from 2003 to 2007, stocks remained above the 10-month moving average. Indeed, often this line served as key support when stocks began to lose momentum.

 

However, once the market peaked in 2007, it broke below the 10-month moving average with conviction. If then followed the pattern I’ve outlined, rallying to “kiss” the 10-month moving average.

 

And after the “kiss” came the real collapse.

 

Now let’s look at the current bull market begun 2009.

 

 http://goldseek.com/news/2016/3-15gs/image004.jpg

 

As you can see, once again the 10-month moving average has been a critical line of support for the market.

 

Initially, stocks struggled to remain above this line during 2010 and 2011. However, the Fed was quick to step in with major monetary policies (QE 2 and Operation Twist respectively) and stocks soon reclaimed the line.

 

From 2012 onward, we were in a full-blown bull market with the 10-month moving average offering critical support.

 

Fast forward to today.

 

The meltdown in mid-2015 resulted in stocks taking out this line with conviction. They have since attempted to reclaim the line, but failed. We’re now moving in for another attempt (a “kiss”).

 

 http://goldseek.com/news/2016/3-15gs/image006.jpg

 

Unless stocks can reclaim this line, then we’re entering a full-scale bear market.

 

This is increasingly looking like the base case.

 

Remember, the last two times stocks fell below this line (2011 and 2012) the Fed moved to implement a major monetary policy.

 

This time around, the Fed is RAISING RATES.

 

A bear market is looming, are you prepared?

 

Best Regards

 

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

 


| Digg This Article
 -- Published: Tuesday, 15 March 2016 | E-Mail  | Print  | Source: GoldSeek.com

comments powered by Disqus



 



Increase Text SizeDecrease Text SizeE-mail Link of Current PagePrinter Friendly PageReturn to GoldSeek.com

 news.goldseek.com >> Story

E-mail Page  | Print  | Disclaimer 


© 1995 - 2017



GoldSeek.com Supports Kiva.org

© GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC

The content on this site is protected by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of GoldSeek.com and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on GoldSeek.com. This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other features found on the site. Please contact us for any further information.

Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer

The views contained here may not represent the views of GoldSeek.com, its affiliates or advertisers. GoldSeek.com makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics, analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained on or within this website, without the express written consent of GoldSeek.com, is strictly prohibited. In no event shall GoldSeek.com or its affiliates be liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon the information provided herein.