Advertise | Bookmark | Contact Us | E-Mail List |  | Update Page | 

Commentary : Gold Review : Markets : News Wire : Quotes : Silver : Stocks - Main Page >> News >> Story  Disclaimer 
Latest Headlines

Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up: Gold and Silver Fall Almost 1% and 2% on the Week
By: Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report

Ira Epstein's Metals Video 1 18 2019
By: Ira Epstein

David Morgan: Expect Stagflation and Silver Outperformance in 2019
By: Mike Gleason

Gold, Silver, Miners—Get Ready to BTFD
By: David Brady, CFA

Gold Surges on Stock Selloff
By: Adam Hamilton, CPA

GoldSeek Radio Nugget: Ryan Walsh and Chris Waltzek

GoldSeek Radio Nugget: Michael Pento and Chris Waltzek

SPX and Gold; Pivotal Points at Hand
By: Gary Tanashian

Gold Is Up Lately. Why Does It Feel So Disappointing?
By: John Rubino

U.S. Government Debt Bomb Much Higher Than Americans Realize
By: Steve St. Angelo


GoldSeek Web

Gold Stocks: Surfing An Institutional Wave

 -- Published: Tuesday, 15 March 2016 | Print  | Disqus 

By: Stewart Thomson

  1. As it often does, gold is pausing ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting. I don’t expect Janet Yellen to raise rates this week, although recent jobs reports and the oil price rally are likely tempting her to do so.
  2. The limited recovery from the meltdown in global stock markets after her first rate hike is likely to convince Janet to hold off, but only until the next meeting.
  3. That is when a fresh and potentially horrific US stock market meltdown is most likely.
  4. Please click here now. That’s the daily gold chart. The sell-off that began last week is building the right shoulder of a solid inverse head and shoulders pattern, which is strengthening the overall technical picture.
  5. For a look at key liquidity flows into and out of gold, please click here now. That’s a snapshot of the latest COT report, and I’ve highlighted the commercial bank actions in green.
  6. The banks clearly are not afraid to “chase some price” in this general price area, as they added long positions as well as short ones quite recently.
  7. The COT reports offer a look at what the banks have done in the past, but to understand what they are likely doing in the present, please click here now. That’s a short term gold chart, using five minute bars.
  8. Note the sizable volume bars that are appearing. In my professional opinion, the banks have already covered tens of thousands of short positions, just in the past few trading sessions.
  9. If my right shoulder projection plays out, I think they will have covered off many more, and will be adding long positions quite aggressively as they do that.
  10. Please click here now. From a fundamental perspective, gold’s rally from December has been mainly based on three factors:
  11. First, Janet’s rate hike created a huge panic in risk-on markets. Second, influential economists began suggesting that a new upcycle for commodities could begin later this year.
  12. That caused money managers to commit to the entire commodity sector, on an ongoing basis as a value play.
  13. Third, Chinese New Year buying was a strong seasonal factor.
  14. Indian demand is often limited at this time of the year, but it has been more soft than usual because of hopes for a duty cut, and now a jeweller strike. If the strike continues, official Indian demand could be under 20 tons in March.
  15. In the short term, it’s difficult for gold to make strong headway with Chinese New Year buying finished, and India being this quiet…unless some new fear trade catalyst is on the near-term horizon.
  16. What could that be? For the likely answer, please click here now. Japanese central banker Kuroda left rates unchanged at the latest BOJ meeting, but many top bank economists feel he could be poised to do something drastic at the next meeting in April with his QEE program.
  17. I’ve argued that rate hikes in America and NIRP (negative rates) in Europe and Japan are a potent combination for higher gold prices.
  18. If Indian jewellers end their strike in April, as Janet hikes rates and Kuroda drastically ramps up QEE, gold could begin a much more aggressive rally than what has already occurred in the past few months.
  19. Please click here now. While these comments about China tying gold reserves to GDP were arguably made by somebody “talking their book”, the PBOC has released official written statements about the key role of gold in the internationalization of the yuan.
  20. The SGE gold price fix is scheduled, tentatively, for an April 19 launch date, and that time frame coincides with many other key events for price discovery in the West.
  21. Tactics? As always, amateur investors who tend to panic during gold price pullbacks should buy put options. While I’m always massively net long gold, I also always make sure I add some short positions into rallies, following the “financial footsteps” of the commercial bank traders.
  22. Please click here now. That’s the GDX weekly chart. It looks spectacular, but the most likely price action in the short term is a bit of a “sideways chop”.
  23. That chop should see a couple of right shoulders form, as part of a big inverse head and shoulders bottom pattern. While anything is possible in any market at any time, including new lows for gold, I think the Western gold community is starting to look pretty good here, given the sizable institutional buying taking place “across the board” in gold stocks.
  24. Because a lot of that buying is value-oriented, even if gold did “impossibly” go to a new low, the substantial institutional commitment to gold stocks that is in play now is likely to accelerate. Simply put, there’s a wave of confidence sweeping through the institutional investor community about gold stocks, and I think it’s time for the Western gold community to grab an extra gold stocks surfboard, and have some fun!






Stewart Thomson

Graceland Updates  


Stewart Thomson is a retired Merrill Lynch broker. Stewart writes the Graceland Updates daily between 4am-7am. They are sent out around 8am-9am. The newsletter is attractively priced and the format is a unique numbered point form. Giving clarity of each point and saving valuable reading time.


Risks, Disclaimers, Legal

Stewart Thomson is no longer an investment advisor. The information provided by Stewart and Graceland Updates is for general information purposes only. Before taking any action on any investment, it is imperative that you consult with multiple properly licensed, experienced and qualified investment advisors and get numerous opinions before taking any action. Your minimum risk on any investment in the world is: 100% loss of all your money. You may be taking or preparing to take leveraged positions in investments and not know it, exposing yourself to unlimited risks. This is highly concerning if you are an investor in any derivatives products. There is an approx $700 trillion OTC Derivatives Iceberg with a tiny portion written off officially.


The bottom line:   Are You Prepared?

| Digg This Article
 -- Published: Tuesday, 15 March 2016 | E-Mail  | Print  | Source:

comments powered by Disqus


Increase Text SizeDecrease Text SizeE-mail Link of Current PagePrinter Friendly PageReturn to >> Story

E-mail Page  | Print  | Disclaimer 

© 1995 - 2019 Supports

©, Gold Seek LLC

The content on this site is protected by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other features found on the site. Please contact us for any further information.

Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer


The views contained here may not represent the views of, Gold Seek LLC, its affiliates or advertisers., Gold Seek LLC makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics, analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained on or within this website, without the express written consent of, Gold Seek LLC, is strictly prohibited. In no event shall, Gold Seek LLC or its affiliates be liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon the information provided herein.