As a rule I try not to comment all that much on politics because it is such a polarizing topic. No matter what I could say one way or the other, "politics" will turn some normally placid folks into rabid trolls. That said, what we are witnessing now has never happened before in our lifetimes and is not even about the candidates ...it is about the survival of our Republic!
Immediately after turning on the business news this morning, I heard an interview of a Republican National Committee member talking about "rules". I did not catch who it was but the essence of the interview was it did not matter who had the most votes or delegates ...the Republican committee would choose "their candidate" if no one had the majority leading into the convention. He was questioned with "so the will of the people doesn't matter"? To which he answered and I will paraphrase in my own words as I understood, "it doesn't matter who the people vote for and we will even overturn a majority if we see fit, the Republican party will choose their candidate for the good of the Republican party". As an aside, John (buddy can you spare a Kleenex) Boehner "endorsed" Paul Ryan for presidential nominee. (Not sure I would have voted for him but I don't recall his name on the ballot)? Upon further searching, the interview can be found here Voters don't pick nominee, we do: GOP official . All I can say is "in your face, we make the rules, you don't even matter"!
Please understand this fully, the tricks, sleight of hand and outright lying as to our country's condition are not working anymore. The primary voting on both sides show an electorate where a large percentage of the country has woken up in anger. It doesn't matter if the average guy does not know exactly "what" is wrong, he/she knows it is something! Reality is so bad the "machine" can no longer hide it and the boiling point is being reached. The election looks to me as if it is going to be a referendum of the average guy versus the establishment. The danger of course is if enough "average guys" have their votes ignored they will rail against the machine. The way I see it, the upcoming election will be about the establishment retaining the control and ability to continue bilking the system or the populous rising up and taking power back.
You might ask "what does this have to do with finance or economics"? In no particular order, it has EVERYTHING to do with economics and finance! Whatever happens will certainly affect the dollar (the currency of any nation is the equivalent of its common stock). Future policy will affect the dollar as well as how foreigners view what happens. Interest rates, stocks, real estate, everything imaginable will be affected. It does need to be said that no matter who wins or loses, the system is already toast and only "timing" may be altered. Most importantly I believe the only difference between who wins and who loses will dictate how quickly or severe the elimination of our civil rights and liberties will be.
In my opinion we are actually watching a circus that no fiction writer could have dreamed up. On one side we have a socialist/communist running against an apparent felon. On the other side we have a populist who says whatever he cares to as long as it's something the people are thinking, running against a hardened conservative that no one in establishment Washington likes. The odds favor a Clinton/Trump matchup. I would ask a couple of questions. What will the response be if Hillary Clinton is indicted? A really far out question would be what if she is somehow pardoned and allowed to run? On the other side, what will happen if the nomination is taken away from Mr. Trump? Or better yet, what if it is taken away from both Trump and Cruz and instead given to a "preferred" candidate? The most comical thing I can think of right now is future debates between Hillary and The Donald!
Before finishing it needs to be said the old adage "it doesn't matter who you vote for, it only matters who counts the votes" is probably quite true now more than ever before. Because of the financial backdrop I wonder whether or not we will even have an election? If the financial system were to come down prior to the election (which I believe is likely), would we have an election under martial law conditions? Financially our fate is carved in stone in my opinion, how we navigate, survive or perish with or without civil liberties is in question.
As I said at the beginning, I hesitate to write on this topic because my e-mail inbox explodes with hatred. As an admission, my candidate of choice was Ben Carson. Was he most qualified? No. Was he establishment or even a politician? No. Did he have ANY experience in government? No. In my opinion, Ben Carson is an American with his country's best interest ahead of his own or anyone else's. He believes in God and in Christian values, whether real or not, the world would be a pretty cool place if everyone got along and acted as Christ did according to the Bible. Mr. Carson was my choice because as I see it, our "inalienable" (or God given) rights have been frittered away and we are on the cusp of losing them altogether. Maybe I am mistaken but I view him as a man of respect for everyone and their individual rights, not someone who wants control through handouts I can only pray that we as a nation can find our way back in time when neighbor helped neighbor, and self reliance and accountability for one's actions not only meant something but was expected. No matter the outcome, this next election will be historical!
Bill Holter writes and is partnered with Jim Sinclair at the newly formed Holter/Sinclair collaboration.
Prior, he wrote for Miles Franklin from 2012-15. Bill worked as a retail stockbroker for 23 years, including 12 as a branch manager at A.G. Edwards. He left Wall Street in late 2006 to avoid potential liabilities related to management of paper assets. In retirement he and his family moved to Costa Rica where he lived until 2011 when he moved back to the United States. Bill was a well-known contributor to the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA) commentaries from 2007-present.
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