Advertise | Bookmark | Contact Us | E-Mail List |  | Update Page | UraniumSeek.com 

Commentary : Gold Review : Markets : News Wire : Quotes : Silver : Stocks - Main Page 

 GoldSeek.com >> News >> Story  Disclaimer 
 
Latest Headlines

Hyperinflation in Zimbabwe – It’s back, but maybe not for long
By: JP Koning

Gold Versus Bitcoin: The Pro-Gold Argument Takes Shape
By: John Rubino

Gold's Interesting Day
By: Rick Ackerman

Asian Metals Market Update: November-20-2017
By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

GoldSeek.com Radio: John Williams and Louis Navellier, and your host Chris Waltzek
By: radio.GoldSeek.com

Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund

Technical Scoop - Weekend Update Nov 19
By: David Chapman

Zero Hedge invites Financial Times to heed GATA's urging on gold suppression
By: Chris Powell

The Great Retirement Con
By: Adam Taggart

Perspective on the Gold/Oil Ratio, Macro Fundamentals and a Gold Sector Bottom
By: Gary Tanashian

 
Search

GoldSeek Web

 
This Is What Bullish Markets Do


 -- Published: Wednesday, 13 April 2016 | Print  | Disqus 

By: Avi GilburtElliottWaveTrader.net

While we still do not have a long term confirmed bottom in the metals complex just yet, the price action is quite indicative of a very bullish market.  You see, when the metals are truly in a bullish trend, they do not see deep retracements, which forces market participants to chase price, as most corrections are simply high level price consolidations.  This is starting to look like what we are seeing in the GLD and GDX.

Last week, we were looking for a further rally in the metals complex.  But, our expectation was that the rally would likely be part of a corrective pattern.

Specifically, as I noted about the GDX:

Ultimately, as long as we remain over this past week’s low of 19.32, I see a set up developing for a (c) wave into our target, which may even result in an expanded b-wave high, which can be higher than the top struck for wave i.  I think this may confuse many people, and have them view this as a break out in the GDX.  But, as long as we remain below 22.30, any higher high is likely part of an expanded b-wave structure, which is what I would prefer to see, as it supports a strongly bullish bias in the GDX.  But, keep in mind that as long as we remain below 22.30, it is only setting us up for a drop in a c-wave for wave ii, which will likely be another buying opportunity.

Even with the rally we have seen this past week, it does not yet look like the upside has completed.  One of the indications I am watching closely is presented on the silver chart.  As I have said for the last two weeks, as long as silver remains below 16.18, I believe we have a strong set up to even see lower lows in the complex – down to the 12-12.75 region.  However, the pattern is still suggestive of a move up to the 15.60-15.80 region before further downside is seen.  Alternatively, should silver be able to prove its more bullish intent with a move through 16.18, then we can have more confidence in a potential long term bottom having been struck already.  Until such time, this is the chart that has the most bearish potential, but after a little more of a rally is seen.

As far as GLD and GDX, my primary count has them both in a b-wave rally, which still may need one more 4-5 to complete the (c) wave of their b-wave.  And, as we expected for the last few weeks, the b-wave in the GDX has now struck a higher high, which will likely make many believe that the rally to 40 has begun.  But, I am not as convinced, as I only see this as an expanded corrective move, or, alternatively, as a 5th wave in wave i off the lows.  As long as we remain below the 25 region, I do not believe we are on our way just yet to 40+, which is my next major target higher.

Ultimately, I maintain the expectation provided in last weekend’s update:

What is interesting is that all three charts seem to be setting up for a rally in the upcoming week, with silver seeing a potential wave 2 rally, whereas GLD and GDX needing a (c) wave in a b-wave rally.  These should be followed by a strong decline in all 3 charts in the coming weeks, with silver seeming as though it is the only chart set up for a lower low, that is, as long as remains below 16.18 on the coming rally.

See charts illustrating the wave counts on the GDX, GLD and YI:

 Elliott Wave Chart
 Elliott Wave Chart
 Elliott Wave Chart

 
(First published Sat Apr 9 for members) 
 
Avi Gilburt is a widely followed Elliott Wave technical analyst and author of ElliottWaveTrader.net, a live Trading Room featuring his intraday market analysis (including emini S&P 500, metals, oil, USD & VXX), interactive member-analyst forum, and detailed library of Elliott Wave education.


| Digg This Article
 -- Published: Wednesday, 13 April 2016 | E-Mail  | Print  | Source: GoldSeek.com

comments powered by Disqus



 



Increase Text SizeDecrease Text SizeE-mail Link of Current PagePrinter Friendly PageReturn to GoldSeek.com

 news.goldseek.com >> Story

E-mail Page  | Print  | Disclaimer 


© 1995 - 2017



GoldSeek.com Supports Kiva.org

© GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC

The content on this site is protected by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of GoldSeek.com and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on GoldSeek.com. This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other features found on the site. Please contact us for any further information.

Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer

The views contained here may not represent the views of GoldSeek.com, its affiliates or advertisers. GoldSeek.com makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics, analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained on or within this website, without the express written consent of GoldSeek.com, is strictly prohibited. In no event shall GoldSeek.com or its affiliates be liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon the information provided herein.