Advertise | Bookmark | Contact Us | E-Mail List |  | Update Page | UraniumSeek.com 

Commentary : Gold Review : Markets : News Wire : Quotes : Silver : Stocks - Main Page 

 GoldSeek.com >> News >> Story  Disclaimer 
 
Latest Headlines

What History Says for Gold Stocks in 2018-2019
By: Jordan Roy-Byrne CMT, MFTA

Jack Chan's Weekly Precious Metals Market Update
By: Jack Chan

Synchronized Global Growth May Have Arrived
By: Frank Holmes

Gold Versus Bitcoin: The Pro-Gold Argument Takes Shape
By: GoldCore

Asian Metals Market Update: November-21-2017
By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Give Back Friday’s Gains
By: Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report

Operation Twist By Another Name and Method?
By: Gary Tanashian

SWOT Analysis: Gold Bounced Back After Attempts to Knock Down Price
By: Frank Holmes

Hyperinflation in Zimbabwe – It’s back, but maybe not for long
By: JP Koning

Gold Versus Bitcoin: The Pro-Gold Argument Takes Shape
By: John Rubino

 
Search

GoldSeek Web

 
Are We On The Verge Of A Melt-Up In The Metals Complex Or Are Lower Lows Still Possible?


 -- Published: Wednesday, 15 June 2016 | Print  | Disqus 

By Avi Gilburt

First published Sat Jun 11 for members:   After we caught the lows in late 2015 and early 2016 in the metals complex, the market has been acting quite bullish.  But, “acting” bullish is not the same as resuming a bull market.  The latter is that for which we seek confirmation in the current set up.

I believe we are at a very important juncture at this point in time in the metals complex.  As we discussed last weekend, the market needed to complete a 5 wave structure off the prior lows.  We now seem to have that in place in the charts we follow.  That means that, if the market is truly immediately bullish, we will see a green wave (ii) corrective pullback take shape over the next week.  As long as we drop correctively, then I will be looking for a break out within the next two weeks or so which can launch the metals complex into the heart of a (iii) of 3 of iii of wave (1) off the lows. 

For those that do not have a lot of experience with Elliott Wave, this is the segment of the wave structure that Robert Prechter called the “point of recognition,” as it is the point in time where the market makes it clear that the bottom is likely in place, as investors begin to strongly chase price.   This is usually the point of the rally which has the strongest technicals and volume (but, a metals 5th wave can actually exceed its technical 3rd), and gaps are often seen during this segment of the structure.  In other words, a break out in this set up can trigger a very strong rally, which will certainly be the strongest move we will have seen since we struck the bottom.

And, the setup seems to make sense to me from a market sentiment standpoint.  As I mentioned over the last few weeks, the bears in this market are looking for lower lows and even the bulls are looking for a pullback.  It seems that most market participants are looking down to some degree.  Yet, all we have seen are very high level consolidations.  You see, when the market is truly bullish, it does not offer much in the way of retracements, as corrective waves are very shallow, which forces market participants to chase price.  This is why metals often move to strong Fibonacci extension ratios rather than the standard ones.

But, again, I am going to caution that until this upside setup triggers, we still do not have a strong confirmation that the long term lows have been struck.  But, should this setup trigger, it should make us much more confident that the lows have been struck, and a long term bull market in the metals complex has likely returned.

As far as the alternative potential, it has been marked on the daily chart in blue.  It presents this high in the GDX as a b-wave of wave ii, with a c-wave down to the 20.75-22 region as the next move in the market.  However, I cannot say that silver or GLD are terribly supportive of this potential, so I will maintain this perspective as my alternative count. And, since the pullbacks in the GDX have been quite shallow, I would look at a break of the .618 retracement of this last rally – 23.80 – as an initial indication  that the alternative has a high probability of playing out.

Since I am writing this from Israel, it is now around 10ish EST, and I have to post this update before the Sabbath begins here very soon, I will not know where we will close today.  But, the possibility of a further breakout before a wave (ii) taking hold requires me to present one further possibility.  I would rather not see this, but should the market continue straight to the 28 region from here, AND NOT BE ABLE TO STRONGLY BREAK THROUGH IT, then all we would have is an a-b-c into that region wherein c=a.  That would get me quite concerned that this rally MAY only be a corrective rally, and one more lower low MAY still be possible.  While it is still a bit too early to get concerned about this potential, if the market does run directly to 28, it is something I will have to take much more seriously. 

For now, I remain cautiously optimistic that the lows are in place, and am still looking for a wave (ii) pullback to set up the more bullish scenario.

See charts illustrating the wave counts on the GDX, GLD and YI at https://www.elliottwavetrader.net/scharts/Charts-on-GDX-GLD-YI-201606121293.html.

Avi Gilburt is a widely followed Elliott Wave technical analyst and author of ElliottWaveTrader.net (www.elliottwavetrader.net), a live Trading Room featuring his intraday market analysis (including emini S&P 500, metals, oil, USD & VXX), interactive member-analyst forum, and detailed library of Elliott Wave education.


| Digg This Article
 -- Published: Wednesday, 15 June 2016 | E-Mail  | Print  | Source: GoldSeek.com

comments powered by Disqus



 



Increase Text SizeDecrease Text SizeE-mail Link of Current PagePrinter Friendly PageReturn to GoldSeek.com

 news.goldseek.com >> Story

E-mail Page  | Print  | Disclaimer 


© 1995 - 2017



GoldSeek.com Supports Kiva.org

© GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC

The content on this site is protected by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of GoldSeek.com and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on GoldSeek.com. This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other features found on the site. Please contact us for any further information.

Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer

The views contained here may not represent the views of GoldSeek.com, its affiliates or advertisers. GoldSeek.com makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics, analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained on or within this website, without the express written consent of GoldSeek.com, is strictly prohibited. In no event shall GoldSeek.com or its affiliates be liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon the information provided herein.