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Reality: Opportunities and Threats


 -- Published: Friday, 12 August 2016 | Print  | Disqus 

The BLS, GDP and Jobs Numbers recently released, are Frankly Bogus and therefore provide Opportunities for those aware and Threats to those unaware. Consider a couple of Savvy Analysts’ Views of these numbers. First Shadowstats:

GDP News Was Bad, and the Markets Recognized It, Despite Unconscionable Gimmicks in the Annual Revisions….An unfolding “new” recession remained very much in play, despite the Bureau’s effort to obfuscate the underlying reality of faltering business activity.”

 

“No. 823: Second-Quarter 2016 GDP and Annual Revisions”,

Shadowstats.com, 07/31/2016

“The U.S. finds itself in an ideological civil war, a war of polarized values, of clashing cultures, a war between capitalism and socialism, of globalization versus nationalization, of a literal enforcement of the U.S. Constitution versus a revisionist relativist judicial application. Law and Order is threatened by revolutionary anarchy on the edge of violence. If this is not an environment for a stock market plunge, I do not know what is. Stock patterns, wave mappings, divergences, volume, breadth, cycles, and sentiment are warning of a coming plunge. 94 million Americans are out of work. 45 million are on food stamps. Home ownership is at its lowest in 51 years. The so called economic recovery as measured by GDP is the worst since the early 20th century. One out of every five households has nobody working, no breadwinners. The mainstream media doesn't even bother to pretend to be objective anymore, and half the nation hasn't even noticed or doesn't care, anesthetized by pharmaceuticals, and sports, nano technology, the nearest pub, iPhone dopamine, blind trust in Fed monetization, and group think soldiered acceptance. The world system being built by the Master Planners requires the vast majority of human kind to behave as type 9 personality types …. What do I mean by that? Sheeple. The plan appears to be working.”

Robert McHugh, 08/2016

Overview:

The recent Strength of the recent Equities Rally to some all-time highs is not confirmed by:

  • The Trannies which are not making record highs
  • The US T-Note 10 Year whose yield has recently bounced down around 1.5% (the flight to the ostensible safety of U. S. T-bonds discredits the Equities Rally) nor by
  • Several Key Technicals which show several Doomsday Patterns including
    • Multi-year and Multi-Month Jaws of Death (Widening Megaphone) Patterns

In sum, Equities are topping and a Crash and Deeper Recession is coming (see Equities).

Much recent Equities strength is due to “Deep Pockets” aka Plunge Protection Team buying, and the Central Banks’ artificial boosting of Equities. But some is also due to the fact that for many investors U.S. Equities are the only place left to go because of the perceived strength of the U.S. Economy.

And Key Sectors are very vulnerable.

  • Indeed, the Financial System is collapsing. As of this July 2016, the world was loaded in $13 Trillion of Negative yielding Debt, most of it Sovereign Debt.
  • Indeed, Negative-Yielding Corporate Debt is up nearly 1,300% this year to nearly $400 Billion.
  • And Major Banks in Italy, Spain and Germany are de facto Insolvent or approaching Insolvency.

Yields and, thus interest rates, are so low that many shaky buyers are helping inflate the Housing Market Bubble. The Real Numbers show is weakening (cf. Shiller). Therefore, in addition to the Equities Bubble, there are three other Bubbles.

  1. Another subprime Housing Crisis/Crash is impending. Similarly with such low rates, the Auto Loan sector is equally Vulnerable.
  2. That is, many Auto loans are subprime also.
  3. Further there is the ongoing Catastrophe in the Energy Sector.

Consider that:

1)    Over 75 Energy Companies are filing for Bankruptcy with another 100 probably to go bankrupt.

2)    Major Oil Companies heavily into Shale Oil Production have dramatically increased their long-term debt since 2010 even though with Declining Oil and Natural Gas prices, their capacity to pay that debt has been reduced or rendered impossible.

In 2015, the U.S. Energy Industry paid 48% of their operating Profits to pay just interest on debt.

But in 2016, 86% of Profits will be required to pay interest on Debt!

And all the foregoing will eventually Crush the Largest Bubble of all — the Credit Bubble.

Couple the foregoing with the Contracting Economy and high Unemployment and declining Wages (see Shadowstats Chart at Note 1), we have documented in recent Letters and Alerts.

Bottom line: Mega Moves in Key Sectors are coming! Deepcaster forecasts these with the same high degree of probability, or greater!, than it did when it generated its excellent record forecasting the 2008 Crash (Note 3 re The Cartel). And there are other important Reality Considerations and Signals which have provided the basis for accurately forecasting Market Moves which result in profitable Positions (see Recent Profits Taken, Note 2) These Considerations and Signals continue to help us forecast the coming Mega-Moves.

Going forward, among other Key Considerations are that the $US has strengthened recently to over 97 basis USDX though it has slipped a bit as we write. Mainly because other Major Economic Zones (e.g., the Eurozone, Japan, and yes, China) are, relatively speaking, so weak, or in China’s case prospectively weak because of its unpayable Debt.

 

But given the lousy Real U.S. Economic Data, the Strong $US can not last.

 

Indeed, a variety of Real data demonstrate what we have been claiming for Months — the International Economy is in a Down Trend and that includes the U.S. Economy, notwithstanding Mainstream Media (MSM) and Major Government Spin to the Contrary (see shadowstats.com), plus recent “Deep Pockets” boosting of the Equities Markets.

 

And China is indeed weakening the Yuan at a 12% annualized rate vis à vis the $US!

 

The Real “Tell” is the Bond Market — the U.S. 10 Year has, until very recently, been yielding below 1.5%(!) as we earlier forecast it would (!).

 

Such a dramatically low bond yield is inconsistent with a recovering Economy or with inflated Equity Values. (They both can’t be right, folks!) We reiterate that Equities are artificially inflated because of Central Banks’ Policies, e.g., low interest rates, NIRP, QE etc. , not underlying Economic Strength.

 

Bottom line, Mega-Threats and Mega-Interventions will soon lead to Mega-Opportunities and Mega-Moves, which Deepcaster forecasts.

 

Fact is that this Key Sector Equities Top is a Multi-Year Top and there may be a few weeks or very few months before the decline in Key Sectors Begins. But it is coming.

 

As for Opportunities, it is now no secret that Gold and Silver are the best performing Assets this year. Nota Bene!

 

But The Cartel of Central Banks continues to develop a variety of Devious Means to continue to try to Suppress these Precious Metals prices to keep Investors invested in their Treasury Securities and Fiat Currencies and Assets denominated in Fiat Currencies.

 

Turd Ferguson describes one of these in his recent article

 

A New Wrinkle In The Paper Gold Con Game

 

“Here's a story that came out earlier today. Maybe it's just me but it's easy to see a Bullion Bank plot here. For months, we've documented all of the various points of demand for gold in all its forms. And now, as The Bullion Bank Paper Derivative Pricing Scheme is being stretched to extremes, suddenly the LME wants to offer another form of paper gold with which to screw everyone.

 

“And note who's involved here...not only is it the LME working in conjunction with the Evil Of Evils Goldman Sachs, they're all "working in conjunction" with The World Gold Council. IF ANYTHING SHOULD PROVE FOR YOU ONCE AND FOR ALL THE WGC IS A SHADY, NASTY AND WORTHLESS ORGANIZATION, THIS SHOULD DO IT! Here's your link from Reuters detailing the news: http://uk.reuters.com/article/gold-contract-lme-idUKL6N0WR4PI

 

“LONDON, Aug 9 The London Metal Exchange (LME) said on Tuesday it is planning to launch spot and futures contracts for gold and silver in the first half of 2017, adding to its list of products which includes copper and aluminum.”

 

“A New Wrinkle In The Paper Gold Con Game,”

Turd Ferguson, 08/09/2016

 

As The Central Bankers come closer and closer to the point of No Return (and Helicopter Money), the Equities, Inflation, Credit, Housing, Auto and Energy Markets Sectors and Interest Rate and Economic Scene will change dramatically.

 

Stay tuned.

 

Best regards,

 

Deepcaster

August 12, 2016

http://www.deepcaster.com/

 

Note 1: SHADOWSTATS

 

Bogus Official Numbers vs. Real Numbers (per Shadowstats.com)

Annual U.S. Consumer Price Inflation reported July 17, 2016
1.01%     /    8.66%

U.S. Unemployment reported August 5, 2016
4.88%     /     23.0%

U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline reported July 29, 2016
1.23%        /     -2.04%

U.S. M3 reported August 4, 2016 (Month of July, Y.O.Y.)
No Official Report  / 4.10% (i.e., total M3 Now at $17.523 Trillion!)

 

Note 2: Our attention to Key Timing Signals and Interventionals and accurate statistics has facilitated Recommendations which have performed well lately. Consider our profits taken in recent months in our Speculative and Fortress Assets Portfolios*

                      130% Profit on Precious Metals Mining Company on July 8, 2016 after just 29 months) (i.e., about 50% Annualized)

                      75% Profit on Gold & Silver  Royalty Streaming Company on June 28, 2016 after just 36 months (i.e., about 25% Annualized)

                      33% Profit on Precious Metals Mining Company on June 13, 2016 after just 28 months) (i.e., about 14% Annualized)

                      65% Profit on Gold & Silver  Royalty Streaming Company on May 2, 2016 after just 35 months (i.e., about 22% Annualized)

                      30% Profit on Water Services Stock on March 11, 2016 after just 18 months (i.e., about 18% Annualized)

                      50% Profit on Long Bond position on February 19, 2016 after just 2 days (i.e., about 8810% Annualized)

                      30% Profit on Short Financial ETF position on February 9, 2016 after just 18 days (i.e., about 655% Annualized)

                      30% Profit on Short Junk Bond position on February 8, 2016 after just 49 days (i.e., about 225% Annualized)

                      90% Profit on Short Small Cap Equities ETF on January 20, 2016 (i.e., about 30% Annualized)

                      75% Profit on Short Small Cap Equities ETF on January 15, 2016 (i.e., about 25% Annualized)

Deepcaster’s Profits Taken in the second half of 2015 included such successes as 80% in 6 days, 110% in 3 days, 265% in 57 days, as well as 65% in 2 days.

*Past Profitable Performance is no assurance of future Profitable Performance.

 

Note 3: * We encourage those who doubt the scope and power of Overt and Covert Interventions by a Fed-led Cartel of Key Central Bankers and Favored Financial Institutions to read Deepcaster’s February, 2016 Letter entitled "Profit, Protection, Despite Cartel Intervention" in the ‘Latest Letter’ Cache at www.deepcaster.com. Also consider the substantial evidence collected by the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee at www.gata.org, including testimony before the CFTC, for information on precious metals price manipulation, and manipulation in other Markets. Virtually all of the evidence for Intervention has been gleaned from publicly available records. Deepcaster’s profitable recommendations displayed at www.deepcaster.com have been facilitated by attention to these “Interventionals.” Attention to The Interventionals facilitated Deepcaster’s recommending five short positions prior to the Fall, 2008 Market Crash all of which were subsequently liquidated profitably.

 


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 -- Published: Friday, 12 August 2016 | E-Mail  | Print  | Source: GoldSeek.com

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