Advertise | Bookmark | Contact Us | E-Mail List |  | Update Page | 

Commentary : Gold Review : Markets : News Wire : Quotes : Silver : Stocks - Main Page >> News >> Story  Disclaimer 
Latest Headlines

GoldSeek Radio Nugget: Rob Kirby and Chris Waltzek

Silver: Supported by D.C. and The Deep State
By: Gary Christenson

Blue Sky Uranium Reports over 1% U3O8 and 0.1% V205 in Pit Sampling Adjacent to Ivana Uranium-Vanadium Deposit
By: Blue Sky Uranium Corp.

Gold Oil and Commodities …Back to the Future?
By: Rambus

Investors And Analysts Know Nothing About Gold
By: Avi Gilburt

The New China and Gold
By: Arkadiusz Sieron

Pound Falls 2.5% Against Gold as UK Government in Turmoil Over Brexit
By: GoldCore

Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Jump 1%
By: Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report

The Stock Market Economy
By: Peter Schiff

Ira Epstein's Metals Video 11 14 2018
By: Ira Epstein


GoldSeek Web

Simplifying the Complex Metals Complex

 -- Published: Wednesday, 19 October 2016 | Print  | Disqus 

By Avi Gilburt

First published Sat Oct 15 for members: We have many analysts and commenters posting many different perspectives on the metals for years.  Some view them as a terrible investment and others view it as the only reasonable investment.  I am not going to discuss the merits or fallacies contained in both of their perspectives, but I would like to simplify the potential in the complex for the average investor.

You see, this complex is not that complex at all.  Sentiment is what controls this market, and when sentiment reaches an extreme, the market shifts in the opposite direction.  That is what we are patiently awaiting at this time.

Currently, our wave structure suggests that we can see one more lower low to complete a 5th wave in a c-wave of this wave ii pullback.  While I certainly can be wrong in this assessment, this is my higher probability wave count at this time.  And, as long as we remain over support, I will maintain this count and expectation.

But, I will note the potential for more whipsaw in the coming week.  While I would like to be strongly viewing us as having started the drop to lower lows to complete this correction, the drop we have seen towards the end of the week is overlapping and within a 3-wave structure.  This would likely suggest that either wave iv has not yet completed, and the market will provide us with one more swing higher to complete a larger wave iv, or we are heading to those lower lows within an ending diagonal pattern.  And, at the time of my writing this update, I cannot say that I am swayed by either of these potentials.

In simplest terms, as long as the metals remain below Friday’s spike high, the pressure remains down, and we can continue lower to complete wave V in what will likely be an ending diagonal.  However, if we are able to move through Friday’s spike high, then wave IV is likely going to extend, and push this correction out until the end of October.

And, as I noted last weekend, as long as we remain below the larger resistance regions noted on the attached charts, I am looking for that one more lower low.  In my humble opinion, this is a buying opportunity for investors.  For as long as we hold over the larger degree support (ex. 19.80GDX), I view this as a bull market.  It would take a break of that bigger support to shake my conviction.

In conclusion, I would like to repost something I posted in our Trading Room on October 9th, as I think it is the appropriate way to approach this market from a risk/reward perspective, no matter what your inclination:

Folks . . where the GDX stands right now is not difficult.  This is REALLY very simple.  If we are REALLY bullish, we will hold the 19.80 region, and head to 60 . . . if we break 19, then it opens the door to a potential lower low.   This is not brain science, but just risk/reward analysis . .. nothing more, nothing less.   If you chose to ignore the upside for whatever reason, you lose a HUGE opportunity that CANNOT be gotten back.  But, if you get stopped out, then you get to buy at MUCH lower levels and you have not lost anything other than a few points.  REALLY SIMPLE when you break it down.

See charts illustrating the wave counts on the GDX, GLD and Silver (YI) at .

Avi Gilburt is a widely followed Elliott Wave technical analyst and author of (, a live Trading Room featuring his intraday market analysis (including emini S&P 500, metals, oil, USD & VXX), interactive member-analyst forum, and detailed library of Elliott Wave education.

| Digg This Article
 -- Published: Wednesday, 19 October 2016 | E-Mail  | Print  | Source:

comments powered by Disqus


Increase Text SizeDecrease Text SizeE-mail Link of Current PagePrinter Friendly PageReturn to >> Story

E-mail Page  | Print  | Disclaimer 

© 1995 - 2018 Supports

©, Gold Seek LLC

The content on this site is protected by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other features found on the site. Please contact us for any further information.

Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer

The views contained here may not represent the views of, its affiliates or advertisers. makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics, analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained on or within this website, without the express written consent of, is strictly prohibited. In no event shall or its affiliates be liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon the information provided herein.