-- Published: Friday, 2 December 2016 | Print | Disqus
“If you don’t do Macro, Macro will do you.”
Successful Investors’ Slogan
Equities and other Markets have Rallied Lately on the Prospect (Hope) that a Trump Administration will renew economic growth.
But there are Several Major Events and Developments coming in the next few weeks which will drive some Sectors Much Higher and Crash others.
The Markets now anticipate The Fed will raise rates at its December Meeting. If it does there will be significant Consequences for Many Markets. If not, there will be serious consequences as well. Either way, Major Moves will ensue beginning December 15. On December 6, 2016, the World’s 1.6 Billion Muslims are expected to be able, for the first time, to own Gold and Silver, heretofore being forbidden to do so by Sharia Law. This will likely dramatically increase the demand for Gold and Silver. The only consequence we do not know at this time is whether the increased demand will come in a sudden rush or gradually. But that increased demand will come. And in another Chaos-producing Development, the Eurozone is coming apart. Regardless of the outcome of the Italian Constitutional Election, it does not change the fact that Leading Italian Banks are drowning in Debt and Near Collapse. If the European Central Bank decides to “print” and temporarily rescue them, Inflation Rages, If not, collapse. Either way, Italy is about to exit the EU, with Major Global Market Impact. In mid-March, 2017 the $20 Trillion U.S. National Debt ceiling will be hit with the only question being whether Congress will increase the Ceiling or Not. Either way, the Consequences for Key Sectors will be Dramatic. On the Trump Election, the markets anticipated greatly increased Economic activity and Inflation, with the 10-Year yield shooting up to 2.4%ish from 1.7%ish. This resulted in a much Stronger Dollar with the USDX jumping up to nearly 102 basis USDX. This is a sign the Markets are correctly anticipating Inflation, and the eventual coming of Money from Helicopters with the result—(Hyper) Stagflation in a few months. And note well that, as interest rates increase, Debt becomes every harder to pay. One consequence: an increasing number of Defaults. Indeed, U.S. Corporate Obligations are now at a record High 45% of GDP. And China can provide no Salvation for the World Economy either—its Corporate debt is over 120% of Its GDP. And Global Debt is 225% of Global GDP according to the IMF. And President Trump’s Infrastructure plan cost is $1 Trillion.
Consequence: None of this Debt can be repaid.
Another Key Factor is the Real Economic Numbers (and Realities) and not the Bogus Official Ones (see Shadowstats Chart, Note 1). Consider the following also from Shadowstats.com.
“Fiscal Stimulus Looms in 2017, but the New Administration Needs to Develop an Accompanying Long-Range U.S. Sovereign Solvency Plan to Forestall a Dollar Disaster. Heavily manipulated by the Federal Reserve, a U.S. dollar crisis has been holding in the background since early-2014. It remains in play, due to unresolved issues from the outgoing Administration and a befuddled Federal Reserve, including ongoing systemic-solvency issues for the banking system, ongoing and protracted economic collapse and long-range sovereign-solvency issues facing the U.S. government.
“Despite expectations for improved business conditions under a Trump Administration, a deteriorating market outlook for near-term (not long-term) business activity should resurface and continue to falter, amidst what should be ongoing and intensifying, negative headline economic reporting in place for the next twelve months or so. Such are the limits of lead times tied to attempting to alter the course of U.S. economic activity….”
“COMMENTARY NUMBER 851 Third-Quarter GDP, Freight Index, Consumer Conditions, U.S. Solvency Issues,” Shadowstats.com, 11/29/2016
“Underlying Economic Reality. Despite the broadly neutral, and artificially-smoothed 2016 GDP benchmark revisions of July 29th (see Commentary No. 823), and the upwardly-revised 3.16% real annualized growth for third-quarter 2016, the U.S. economy has continued in a deepening and as-yet-unrecognized “new” recession. Headline monthly reporting activity in better-quality subsidiary economic series continue to move market expectations in that general direction (the ShadowStats contention remains that the “new” downturn is in reality just a continuation of the economic crash into 2009). Such is despite recent headline gimmicks bloating key data, and the current post-election surge in consumer expectations. Given basic economic lead times, likely new fiscal stimulus from the incoming Administration should have its first major impact in early-2018, not much before….”
- And one most Important Development-in-process, not yet very visible, but which will have a dramatic effect on Many markets, beginning soon, i.e., in the next few weeks or very few months. Consider…
o Savvy Investors and Political Economists have correctly noted the tremendous power of The Deep State.
o The Deep State is a Globalist (as opposed to Nationalist or Inter-Nationalist) Cartel of Central Bankers and Mega-Bankers with many Investment Bankers and Politicians as their de facto allies and/or Puppets.
o They cooperate in advancing their own Interests via interlocking Directorships and Agreements, and not in the interests of any particular Nation or its Citizens.
o Since they control the International Banking System and much of the Main Stream Media, they have Immense Power from which they continue to reap Immense Economic Benefits from all continents. This “Deep State’ Cartel’s reach extends from the private-for-profit Fed (owned by the Bankers themselves) to the IMF and BIS (the Central Bankers Bank).
o The power comes from compensating well those who do their bidding.
o Just consider a few examples:
· Hillary Clinton, former candidate for U.S. President, received $650,000 for giving one speech to the Investment Banking firm, Goldman Sachs.
· Mario Draghi, head of the European Central Bank, is a former employee of Goldman Sachs
· Stanley Fischer, Vice Chairman of the U.S. Fed is the former Head of the Bank of Israel
· Mark Carney, head of the Bank of England, is an American Banker
· Steve Mnuchin, President-Elect Trump’s Nominee for Secretary of Treasury is a Goldman-Sachs Alumnus
Just five examples of the Interlocking Character of the Globalist Banking Cartel
Needless to say The Cartel’s power is enhanced when they can control Regional or Globalist Institutions, because they can play one state or interest group off against another. That is why they push for Regional (like the European Union and the North American Union and the Trans-Pacific Partnership and TTIP, inter alia) or Globalist Entities, like the United Nations.
And the Globalist Deep State Cartel despises Nationalism and Internationalism because Cohesive Nations have the capacity to limit or reduce Cartel Power and Profits.
Thus it is no surprise that the Deep State’s Candidate in the recent U.S. Election was Hillary Clinton.
And No surprise that, since President-Elect Trump is a Nationalist (Make America Great Again!) and Internationalist, the Cartel Despises him as was reflected in The Deep State-controlled Main Stream Media’s unfair treatment of him.
And, critically important, even though The Deep State Candidate lost the recent election, The Globalist Deep State still powerfully Exists, but their Power is threatened by Donald Trump. So it follows that they will attempt to defeat (and have already begun to try to defeat) his policies which threaten them.
Therefore, it is critically important to consider whether, by facilitating the post-Election Market Rally in Key Sectors, they are not setting President-Elect Trump up for a fall right after he takes office and begins to implement policies which threaten their Power and Profits.
In other words, we can expect they will use their Economic and Monetary Power to Crash certain Key Markets to impede Trump Initiatives, especially on Trade Policy and others in which their Interests are Threatened.
And they will be aided in this by the U.S.A.’s Unpayable $20 Trillion Debt plus the prospective additional $15 Trillion in Deficits over the next decade.
This Multifaceted Clash between the Trump Presidency and The Globalist Cartel is an all-too-probable scenario, unfortunately.
Thus, Deepcaster forecasts the Trump Presidency has huge Roadblocks and Battles ahead, and these will be dramatically reflected in the Markets.
For Forecasts about how the foregoing plays out and how to handsomely profit and protect, see Deepcaster’s December Letter at Deepcaster.com. Also see the results of Deepcaster’s prior forecasts in its Recent Profits Taken (Note 2) below.
On another positive note, the following are Extremely Price-Positive for One Sector.
- Corporate Earnings are Falling, leading to a demand for hard Assets
- Rising Rates (see $US, Euro etc. Section below) mean an increasing number of Corporate defaults, and not just in the energy industry
- And if The Fed raises rates in December, which now appears more likely, that also increases Defaults. Thus, as many Corporate Balance Sheets appear less healthy, the Rush to Hard Assets will intensify again.
- As well, with Rising Rates, Sovereign and Corporate Debt becomes harder and harder to service.
- And we reiterate, the USA’s $20 Trillion Debt Ceiling will expire March 15. If Congress raises it, this Sector should will shoot up because that raise would be inflationary.
- If there is no ceiling raise, the Markets tank unless The Fed prints Money from Helicopters (which we think highly likely until next year) this would also cause this Sector to Launch UP.
Finally, one other Market Mega Mover which should be noted going forward is the “Deep States” Globalist Elites of Major Countries conducting a War on Cash with Negative interest Rates Policies and by other Means. Indeed, the Indian Government’s recently outlawing 1000 and 500 Rupee notes just about the time of the U.S. Election is evidence of that. This enhanced the Indian Central Bank’s and Indian Government’s power, dampened Indian Gold Demand tremendously, (but only temporarily. It has already started to rebound).
In sum, opportunities and Risks Abound providing Great Potential for both Profit and Wealth Destruction, provided one focuses on Macro Economic and Market Realities in making Forecasts, and not on Bogus Official Numbers.
If you don’t do Marco, Macro will do you.
December 2, 2016
Note 1: Bogus Official Numbers vs. Real Numbers (per Shadowstats.com)
Annual U.S. Consumer Price Inflation reported November 17, 2016
1.64% / 9.34%
U.S. Unemployment reported November 4, 2016
4.88% / 22.9%
U.S. GDP Annual Growth/Decline reported November 29, 2016
1.57% / -1.93%
U.S. M3 reported November 3, 2016 (Month of October, Y.O.Y.)
No Official Report / 3.334% (i.e., total M3 Now at $17.56 Trillion!)
Note 2: Our attention to Key Timing Signals and Interventionals and accurate statistics has facilitated Recommendations which have performed well lately. Consider our profits taken in recent months in our Speculative and Fortress Assets Portfolios*
• 110% Profit on Gold Shares ETF on November 9, 2016 after just 7 months) (i.e., about 190% Annualized)
• 60% Profit on Precious Metals Mining Company on October 20, 2016 after just 33 months) (i.e., about 22% Annualized)
• 130% Profit on Precious Metals Mining Company on July 8, 2016 after just 29 months) (i.e., about 50% Annualized)
• 75% Profit on Gold & Silver Royalty Streaming Company on June 28, 2016 after just 36 months (i.e., about 25% Annualized)
• 33% Profit on Precious Metals Mining Company on June 13, 2016 after just 28 months) (i.e., about 14% Annualized)
• 65% Profit on Gold & Silver Royalty Streaming Company on May 2, 2016 after just 35 months (i.e., about 22% Annualized)
• 50% Profit on Long Bond position on February 19, 2016 after just 2 days (i.e., about 8810% Annualized)
• 90% Profit on Short Small Cap Equities ETF on January 20, 2016 (i.e., about 30% Annualized)
• 75% Profit on Short Small Cap Equities ETF on January 15, 2016 (i.e., about 25% Annualized)
Deepcaster’s Profits Taken in the second half of 2015 included such successes as 80% in 6 days, 110% in 3 days, 265% in 57 days, as well as 65% in 2 days.
*Past Profitable Performance is no assurance of future Profitable Performance.
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-- Published: Friday, 2 December 2016 | E-Mail | Print | Source: GoldSeek.com