-- Published: Sunday, 11 December 2016 | Print | Disqus
By Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT, MFTA
Gold and gold mining stocks have been very oversold but have struggled to rally. The sector looked to be starting a rebound until Friday’s decline which pushed Gold to a new low. However, positive divergences remain in place as gold stocks and Silver remain above their recent lows. While the Federal Reserve could say something hawkish next week, the setup continues to favor a rebound in the precious metals sector rather than an immediate decline to new lows.
The monthly chart of Gold is shown below. Gold closed last week at $1162/oz after trading as low as $1157/oz. The weekly chart (not shown) shows key support (and closes) at $1158-$1165/oz while the monthly chart shows support from $1142 to $1157/oz. That range marked key support or resistance from the end of 2014 through most of 2015. It is highly unlikely that Gold does not hold this level in its current oversold state. However, that does mean Gold could test as low as $1142/oz before rebounding.
Gold Monthly Chart
The gold stocks are in a similar position in that they could drop a tiny bit more before the start of a rebound. The daily line chart below shows the strong support in GDX at $20, which includes the 400-day moving average. GDX closed Friday at $20.67. Also, the 62% retracement is 1% below $20, at $19.80. GDXJ has been stronger as it remains a good distance above its 400-day moving average and 62% retracement. However, the chart below shows key support at $32.50, which is 5% below Friday’s close.
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