Advertise | Bookmark | Contact Us | E-Mail List |  | Update Page | UraniumSeek.com 

Commentary : Gold Review : Markets : News Wire : Quotes : Silver : Stocks - Main Page 

 GoldSeek.com >> News >> Story  Disclaimer 
 
Latest Headlines

Bitcoin, Bail Ins And Bullion
By: Mike Maloney

Tactics For The Gold Bull Era
By: Stewart Thomson

Dow Peaking? The Quick Guide to Diversifying Your Stock Profits
By: Jeff Clark

What History Says for Gold Stocks in 2018-2019
By: Jordan Roy-Byrne CMT, MFTA

Jack Chan's Weekly Precious Metals Market Update
By: Jack Chan

Synchronized Global Growth May Have Arrived
By: Frank Holmes

Gold Versus Bitcoin: The Pro-Gold Argument Takes Shape
By: GoldCore

Asian Metals Market Update: November-21-2017
By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Give Back Friday’s Gains
By: Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report

Operation Twist By Another Name and Method?
By: Gary Tanashian

 
Search

GoldSeek Web

 
Federal Reserve And Stronger Real Rates Cause Breakdown in Gold


 -- Published: Sunday, 18 December 2016 | Print  | Disqus 

By Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT, MFTA

Gold and gold mining stocks were setting up for a rebound until the market suddenly priced in tighter policy from the Federal Reserve. Both nominal and real yields surged and that pushed an already oversold sector below key support. Gold lost support in the mid $1100s while gold stocks (GDX) lost a critical support level. While the sector is oversold and likely to rebound as 2017 begins, the primary trend remains lower.

Our first chart plots Gold and the real yield on the 5-year TIP security. The US Treasury provides daily data and it gives us a look at day to day changes in real yields. The real 5-year tips year yield closed last week at an 11-month high. Stronger real yields hurt Gold’s desirability as an investment. This is why Gold and gold stocks have sold off.    

dec182016realyield

Gold & Real 5-Year Tips Yield

We had expected Gold to rebound from the $1140/oz to $1155/oz range but it declined to as low as $1124/oz. Its next weekly support is from $1085/oz to $1095/oz. An immediate rebound to resistance at $1155/oz could setup a decline down to $1085/oz. The other scenario is Gold immediately dumps down to $1085-$1095/oz before beginning a sustained rebound.

Turning to the gold stocks, we see that GDX broke below a key level at the end of last week. It had been holding above $20, which was a confluence of strong support. The weekly candle shows a clear breakdown below that support. GDX could snapback to the breakdown point near $20 which would setup a decline to support at $17. The other scenario is it plunges to $17 this week. GDXJ lost support at $32.50 and dumped 12% last week. Its next strong support is around $27.

dec182016miners

GDX, GDXJ Weekly Candles

Although Gold and gold stocks are very oversold and sentiment indicators are bullish, the breakdown in price signals that more selling could occur before the sector rebounds. A big rally in Gold is more likely to begin from $1095-$1095/oz than from $1120/oz. The gold stocks could also test lower levels before a sizeable rebound begins. We had expected a rebound but the sector brokedown. We were wrong. However, our bearish big picture view remains on target. We reiterate that we do not want to buy investment positions until we see sub $1100 Gold coupled with an extreme oversold condition and bearish sentiment. For professional guidance in riding the bull market in Gold, consider learning more about our premium service including our favorite junior miners for 2017.

Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT, MFTA

Jordan@TheDailyGold.com


| Digg This Article
 -- Published: Sunday, 18 December 2016 | E-Mail  | Print  | Source: GoldSeek.com

comments powered by Disqus



 



Increase Text SizeDecrease Text SizeE-mail Link of Current PagePrinter Friendly PageReturn to GoldSeek.com

 news.goldseek.com >> Story

E-mail Page  | Print  | Disclaimer 


© 1995 - 2017



GoldSeek.com Supports Kiva.org

© GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC

The content on this site is protected by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of GoldSeek.com and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on GoldSeek.com. This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other features found on the site. Please contact us for any further information.

Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer

The views contained here may not represent the views of GoldSeek.com, its affiliates or advertisers. GoldSeek.com makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics, analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained on or within this website, without the express written consent of GoldSeek.com, is strictly prohibited. In no event shall GoldSeek.com or its affiliates be liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon the information provided herein.