Advertise | Bookmark | Contact Us | E-Mail List |  | Update Page | UraniumSeek.com 

Commentary : Gold Review : Markets : News Wire : Quotes : Silver : Stocks - Main Page 

 GoldSeek.com >> News >> Story  Disclaimer 
 
Latest Headlines

Precious metals marketplace OneGold extends a rare offer of Gold and Silver at spot price
By: OneGold

Ira Epstein's Metals Video 1 16 2019
By: Ira Epstein

Goldcorp-Newmont deal points to more M and A
By: Richard (Rick) Mills

Silver Ė 1993 and 2001 Repeat
By: Gary Christenson

The Newmont-Goldcorp Deal Is Positive News for Gold Mining
By: Frank Holmes

Northern Vertex Mining Presents a Video of the Moss Gold Mine, NW Arizona, USA
By: Northern Vertex Mining Corp.

Gold Holds Steady Near $1,300/oz As Geopolitical Risks Including Brexit Loom Large
By: GoldCore

Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver End Slightly Lower in Mixed Trade
By: Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report

Ira Epstein's Metals Video 1 15 2019
By: Ira Epstein

Gold and Silver 2019 Price Forecast
By: Craig Hemke

 
Search

GoldSeek Web

 
An Analog for the Gold Stocks Correction


 -- Published: Sunday, 12 March 2017 | Print  | Disqus 

By Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT, MFTA

The gold stocks bounced strongly today after the February jobs report confirmed the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates next week. While precious metals rallied strongly following the previous two hikes, Iím not so sure today marks the start of a big rebound. For one, the Federal Reserve could hike rates again in July. Second and more important, the technical setup argues for more back and forth action in the weeks and months ahead. While the current price action in the gold stocks is different from that in the previous cyclical bull markets, we do think we have found one viable comparison for the current correction.  

Although the gold stocks may rally for a few weeks in the short-term, I see them testing the December lows or close to those lows before retesting their February peaks. If this occurs and the correction that began last summer remains in effect, then what does that mean for the larger picture?

Put simply, the gold stocks formed a historic low in January 2016 and are undergoing a sizeable correction (in price and time) to the record advance that took place in the first half of 2016. A long and deep wave 2 correction, though not typical has a few historical examples.

In the chart below we plot the housing and banks sectors, which endured a sizeable wave 2 correction (in price and time) in 2010-2011 before exploding higher from late 2011 to early 2013.

Mar102017edhousingbanks

Housing & Banks 2004-2017

These two sectors share several key similarities to the gold stocks at present. They endured a devastating bear market of more than 80%. (It was the worst bear market in over 80 years). They rebounded strongly from their historic 2009 bottoms. In particular, the banks surged 250% in 12 months. Then both sectors corrected 44% in a correction that lasted 17 months and longer than the initial rebound. Finally, note that the banks and housing sectors experienced a technical breakdown (C leg) in late 2011 that effectively served as a massive bear trap and a tremendous buying opportunity.

With respect to the gold stocks, the point is additional technical weakness and a breach of support will likely be a great buying opportunity and not a sell signal. Gold stocks in January 2016 were the cheapest they had ever been. Going forward over the next few months, the closer they trade to those levels, the better buying opportunity it is. Given the historical context, one should not overreact if the miners lose their 400-day moving averages or temporarily break their December lows. Due to the gold stocks being only 15 months removed from such a historic bottom, there simply arenít enough new sellers to drive the sector that much lower.

Mar102017minersd

GDX, GDXJ

The gold stocks appear to be following a rare but viable example of a lengthy bull market correction. Unless they can rally back to their February highs soon then the analog to the housing and banks sectors remain in play. That aligns with our outlook of the spring and summer being a grind. As we noted last week, the way to play this setup is to buy weakness and avoid chasing strength. We are actively looking for bargains that we can buy and hold through this period into the next big move higher. For professional guidance in riding this new bull market, consider learning more about our premium service including our current favorite junior miners.     

Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT, MFTA

Jordan@TheDailyGold.com

 


| Digg This Article
 -- Published: Sunday, 12 March 2017 | E-Mail  | Print  | Source: GoldSeek.com

comments powered by Disqus



 



Increase Text SizeDecrease Text SizeE-mail Link of Current PagePrinter Friendly PageReturn to GoldSeek.com

 news.goldseek.com >> Story

E-mail Page  | Print  | Disclaimer 


© 1995 - 2019



GoldSeek.com Supports Kiva.org

© GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC

The content on this site is protected by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of GoldSeek.com and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on GoldSeek.com. This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other features found on the site. Please contact us for any further information.

Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer


Map

The views contained here may not represent the views of GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC, its affiliates or advertisers. GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics, analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained on or within this website, without the express written consent of GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC, is strictly prohibited. In no event shall GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC or its affiliates be liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon the information provided herein.