LIVE Gold Prices $  | E-Mail Subscriptions | Update GoldSeek | GoldSeek Radio 

Commentary : Gold Review : Markets : News Wire : Quotes : Silver : Stocks - Main Page 

 GoldSeek.com >> News >> Story  Disclaimer 
 
Latest Headlines

COT Gold, Silver and US Dollar Index Report - May 17, 2019
By: GoldSeek.com

Gold Miners’ Q1’19 Fundamentals
By: Adam Hamilton, CPA, Zeal Research

Three safe-haven reasons to own gold
By: Richard (Rick) Mills, Ahead of the herd

Trump’s China Blunder
By: Peter Schiff, President and CEO Euro Pacific Capital

Is the Trade War a Catalyst for Gold?
By: Jordan Roy-Byrne CMT, MFTA

Bitcoin Mania Is Back! Are You Ready to Rumble?
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks

Precious Metals Update Video: Gold support around $1,282
By: Ira Epstein

Asian Metals Market Update: May-17-2019
By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

GoldSeek Radio Nugget: Louis Navellier
By: Chris Waltzek, GoldSeek Radio

Gold: Ratio Charts Offer the Key to the Bull
By: Rambus

>
 
Search

GoldSeek Web

 
Crude Oil Continuation


 -- Published: Monday, 20 March 2017 | Print  | Disqus 

By Bob Loukas

I like this Crude oil decline, and to date, it has been a picture perfect Cycle’s development.  Members of The Financial Tap were already tracking that expectation in advance, and positioned well to take advantage.  But that big decline, which started on March 7th took many by surprise, judging by the extreme (Long) positioning seen with the COT report.  And if you were not already short before the move began, the speed of the decline made it nearly impossible to establish a new position thereafter.

I believe that might not be the case anymore and another opportunity is at hand.  We’ve seen a clear Cycle Low (March 14th) in my opinion, and that was confirmed with the rally after the FOMC last week.  I know it was only a three day rally, but the move back to the 10-day moving average is possibly all that we’re going to see, from a counter-trend perspective.

The COT report has improved somewhat, so obviously the “easy money” has been made on the short side.  But the report remains bearish, and only tells me that the process of shifting from excessive long to short is still in progress, and will take time to complete.  This also matches the fact that crude is now in an Investor Cycle decline, that process will be aided by leveraged longs capitulating and speculators picking up more short positions.

Interestingly too, crude oil sentiment is down, as expected…but still nowhere near the types of lows I believe we need to get to.  When we consider the bearish COT report and the amount of time remaining in this Investor Cycle, I feel that we still have some way to go before looking for a meaningful bottom.

To the weekly chart, where I see a lot of downside work left in that chart.  Now that this Cycle has given way and is in the declining portion, there is just no way it ends until it at least becomes oversold and touches the lower Bollinger bands.  That would be the best case scenario for the bulls.

Therefore, it is my expectation that crude will fall another $7, at a minimum.  Thereafter, it’s really anyone’s guess whether this ICL becomes a double bottom retest (around $42/$43) with the last ICL.  Or in the worst case, this becomes a rout/crash that can be compared to the 2008 or 2014 declines.  In that case, the downside over just the next two months is as far down as the low $30’s!

https://thefinancialtap.com/

 


| Digg This Article
 -- Published: Monday, 20 March 2017 | E-Mail  | Print  | Source: GoldSeek.com

comments powered by Disqus



 



Increase Text SizeDecrease Text SizeE-mail Link of Current PagePrinter Friendly PageReturn to GoldSeek.com

 news.goldseek.com >> Story

E-mail Page  | Print  | Disclaimer 


© 1995 - 2019



GoldSeek.com Supports Kiva.org

© GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC

The content on this site is protected by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of GoldSeek.com and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on GoldSeek.com. This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other features found on the site. Please contact us for any further information.

Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer


Map

The views contained here may not represent the views of GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC, its affiliates or advertisers. GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics, analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained on or within this website, without the express written consent of GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC, is strictly prohibited. In no event shall GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC or its affiliates be liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon the information provided herein.