The precious metals complex enjoyed a strong week mostly due to a post-Fed explosion on Wednesday. Although gold stocks sold off to end the week, they finished up almost 5% for the week. Gold gained 2.4% on the week while Silver gained 2.9%. The miners enjoyed massive gains following the previous two rate hikes and that has some optimistic about a repeat scenario. However, the miners and metals need to prove they can recapture their 200-day moving averages before we become optimistic.
Precious metals should trend higher in the short-term if the current macro technical landscape does not change. The US Dollar index has fallen below its 50-day moving average and could fall another 2% to moving average support. Also, despite the Fed rate hike, the 10-year yield did not make a new high. Bonds could rebound and the huge speculative short position, if unwound could add to the rebound. A rally in Bonds coupled with a weak US Dollar would help precious metals.
US Dollar, Bonds, 10-Year Yield
Precious metals could rebound farther but resistance in the form of the 200-day moving average looms large. In the chart below we plot Gold, Silver, GDXJ and GDX along with their 200-day moving averages. In addition to the 200-day moving average, the February highs will also provide resistance. We should note, while the metals remained above their late January lows, the miners did not. It would not be a good sign to see a continued rally led by the metals rather than the miners.
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