Advertise | Bookmark | Contact Us | E-Mail List |  | Update Page | UraniumSeek.com 

Commentary : Gold Review : Markets : News Wire : Quotes : Silver : Stocks - Main Page 

 GoldSeek.com >> News >> Story  Disclaimer 
 
Latest Headlines

Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Gain Almost 1% While Stocks Drop Over 2%
By: Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report

GoldSeek Radio: Gerald Celente and Peter Schiff, and Chris Waltzek
By: radio.GoldSeek.com

The Housing Market Is Sliding Down The Wall It Hit In Late August
By: Dave Kranzler

Political Theater Goes into Overdrive as Shutdown Looms
By: Clint Siegner

SWOT Analysis: Will the Fed Hike Rates Again This Week?
By: Frank Holmes

Stock Market’s Stars are Crossed for an Ursa Major Upset
By: David Haggith

Watching For A Breakout In Gold
By: Justin Smyth

Technical Scoop - Weekend Update December 17 2018
By: David Chapman

A Turn In The Tide
By: Plunger

Gold Market Update
By: Clive Maund

 
Search

GoldSeek Web

 
The Bearish Gold Bull


 -- Published: Friday, 12 May 2017 | Print  | Disqus 

By Jordan Roy-Byrne CMT, MFTA

The Bearish Gold Bull was the title of my presentation last weekend at the Metals Investor Forum in Vancouver, British Columbia. While the title could be ascribed to me personally for my recent tendency towards conservative and cautious views, it more importantly describes the current dichotomy in the gold sector. The mining sector saw its fundamentals hit rock bottom in 2014-2015 and became “bombed out” at the end of 2015. However, while parts of the industry have performed well, as a whole it has been unable to push higher after a torrid recovery in early 2016. A big reason is the outlook for metals prices suggests lower prices before any large advance. Until metals prices are ready to rise, the miners may find themselves in a bearish bull.

The mining stocks have fallen below their 50 and 200-day moving averages and are even struggling around their 400-day moving averages (which provided support in December 2016) but this does not threaten the epic 2015-2016 bottom. There are a plethora of valuation metrics from January 2016 that are unlikely to be seen again. That time marked the worst 5 and 10-year rolling performance for gold stocks in 90 years. Gold stocks relative to the S&P 500 hit an all-time low and Gold stocks relative to Gold hit a 90 year low. Gold stocks price to book and price to cash flow valuations were the lowest in 40 years. (The data does not go back farther than that). Finally, January 2016 marked the end of the worst bear market ever. Remember this chart?

Bear Markets in Gold Stocks

Barrons Gold Mining Index

The fundamentals for the mining sector actually bottomed before January 2016. Fundamental indicators for the industry such as the Gold to Oil ratio and Gold priced in foreign currencies bottomed well before 2016. For the senior producers, aggregate net debt and leverage ratios began to decline after 2014 and free cash flow turned positive in 2015. In short, 2015 was a turnaround year for industry even though the average Gold price of roughly $1150/oz was $110/oz lower than in 2014. Since the end of 2015, the industry has enjoyed nearly six quarters of $1250/oz Gold. The industry is now in a better position to be able to withstand several quarters of weaker metals prices.

With respect to Gold and Silver, the ominous price action reflects the risk of worsening fundamentals for the balance of the year. Real interest rates are the primary driver for precious metals and they could rise in the months ahead. Inflation has peaked and this is reinforced by commodity prices rolling over. Meanwhile, short-term interest rates are stable at worst and rising at best. The Fed could hike three more times this year. Unless the Fed reverses course or inflation suddenly accelerates, Gold and Silver prices will be under pressure.

Overall, while the gold miners and juniors are in a new up cycle, they will not truly liftoff as a whole until metals prices are ready to rise in a sustainable fashion. Nevertheless, we should note that various individual companies are being rewarded for adding value to their projects. Our view is we want to find these companies and accumulate on weakness as that will provide a better entry point then attempting to pinpoint the next major low in metals prices. We are waiting as we expect a good buy opportunity at somepoint this summer. For professional guidance in investing in this sector consider learning more about our premium service including our current favorite junior exploration companies. 

Jordan Roy-Byrne CMT, MFTA

Jordan@TheDailyGold.com


| Digg This Article
 -- Published: Friday, 12 May 2017 | E-Mail  | Print  | Source: GoldSeek.com

comments powered by Disqus



 



Increase Text SizeDecrease Text SizeE-mail Link of Current PagePrinter Friendly PageReturn to GoldSeek.com

 news.goldseek.com >> Story

E-mail Page  | Print  | Disclaimer 


© 1995 - 2019



GoldSeek.com Supports Kiva.org

© GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC

The content on this site is protected by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of GoldSeek.com and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on GoldSeek.com. This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other features found on the site. Please contact us for any further information.

Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer


Map

The views contained here may not represent the views of GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC, its affiliates or advertisers. GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics, analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained on or within this website, without the express written consent of GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC, is strictly prohibited. In no event shall GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC or its affiliates be liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon the information provided herein.