LIVE Gold Prices $  | E-Mail Subscriptions | Update GoldSeek | GoldSeek Radio 

Commentary : Gold Review : Markets : News Wire : Quotes : Silver : Stocks - Main Page >> News >> Story  Disclaimer 
Latest Headlines

Precious Metals Update Video: Gold up as people ran into safe havens
By: Ira Epstein

COT Gold, Silver and US Dollar Index Report - March-22-2019

Gold Mid-Tiers’ Q4’18 Fundamentals
By: Adam Hamilton, Zeal Research

Self-Destruction: Cheerleading the Process
By: Gary Christenson, Deviant Investor

The U.S. Economy Is In Big Trouble
By: Dave Kranzler

Gold Resource Corporation Mirador Mine Development Crosscuts 6 Meters of 992 Grams Per Tonne Silver
By: Gold Resource Corp.

Central Banks Are Messing With Your Head
By: Thorsten Polleit

A Permabear Talks Lollipops and Roses
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks

Gold …Some Confirmations to Watch For
By: Rambus

On The Hot Seat
By: Ted Butler


GoldSeek Web

Is This a Big FAKEOUT?

 -- Published: Wednesday, 24 May 2017 | Print  | Disqus 

By Avi Gilburt

One of the benefits of being a part of a trading room with over 3000 members, over 400 professionals, and 15 analysts is that we all are able to take advantage of the combined wisdom of all the members and analysts in the room.  Since I am but one person within this room, I am clearly unable to see all potentials the market may be throwing at us.  And, thanks to the collective wisdom of the room, several people have provided me with insights today which I did not have on my own.   So, there is no question that we all can benefit from the collective wisdom of the room, and for that I am grateful to you all.

First, Garrett private messaged me today to tell me that he is having a hard time seeing enough stocks setting up to support a rally to 2500SPX at this time.  Rather, many of them still need more pullback before they can substantiate such a run.  And, since this is a market of stocks, I clearly need to take that into account in my own analysis.

Second, I have noted several times that I really do not like the high that I considered the top to the (b) wave before, because the rally into that high really counted best as a 3 wave move.  Since that time, I have been struggling to understand how I can reconcile that issue with the overall market action.  Well, today, Bill Adlard, one of our members and a highly acclaimed analyst in his own right, presented a count on the board which gave me insight into a truly elegant solution to the issues I was having, and I have modified the count on my chart to take advantage of his insight.

If you look at my 60 minute chart, you will see that we can actually count this seemingly 5 wave rally as a (c) wave within the b-wave still.  In fact, whereas the larger (b) wave of the b-wave would have taken the great majority of the time during this corrective move, the (a) wave and (c) would now be almost equal in time, as well as in size.  

Based upon this modified count, I am still in the camp of seeing much further downside in the coming weeks, and this count can still support a strong c-wave down to the 2285-2330SPX region.  Moreover, as I have noted before, the IWM provides more evidence that the downside has potentially not yet completed. 

However, I will note that should the next drop below 2385SPX be corrective in nature, and then we rally through the high we make in this rally, I will likely move into the alternative count in yellow, which points us to the 2500SPX region sooner than I had preferred.  The reason I say we have to break 2385SPX is because that is the .382 retracement of what can be a 3rd wave top at today’s highs, so I would first want to see the market break below that region to suggest we still do not see a 4-5 to complete a bigger (c) wave up here, which can then take us until the end of this week.

So, for now, I am still looking for a bigger downside reaction in this larger 4th wave.   However, as I have stated many times before, you MUST respect the fact that this is a bull market.  Therefore, downside set ups are not for aggressively shorting for most people – at least in my humble opinion – but, rather, are times to consider where and what you want to be buying on the dip. 

Remember, the strongest likelihood and highest probability perspective we see on these charts right now is the rally to the 2500SPX region.  But, what we still struggle with is from where we begin that rally.  And, as I have noted many times before, knowing where a 4th wave has completed when it is not a textbook 4th wave is often one of the hardest things we do when it comes to Elliott Wave analysis.

See charts illustrating the wave counts on the S&P 500 at

Avi Gilburt is a widely followed Elliott Wave technical analyst and author of (, a live Trading Room featuring his intraday market analysis (including emini S&P 500, metals, oil, USD & VXX), interactive member-analyst forum, and detailed library of Elliott Wave education.

| Digg This Article
 -- Published: Wednesday, 24 May 2017 | E-Mail  | Print  | Source:

comments powered by Disqus


Increase Text SizeDecrease Text SizeE-mail Link of Current PagePrinter Friendly PageReturn to >> Story

E-mail Page  | Print  | Disclaimer 

© 1995 - 2019 Supports

©, Gold Seek LLC

The content on this site is protected by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other features found on the site. Please contact us for any further information.

Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer


The views contained here may not represent the views of, Gold Seek LLC, its affiliates or advertisers., Gold Seek LLC makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics, analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained on or within this website, without the express written consent of, Gold Seek LLC, is strictly prohibited. In no event shall, Gold Seek LLC or its affiliates be liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon the information provided herein.