Advertise | Bookmark | Contact Us | E-Mail List |  | Update Page | UraniumSeek.com 

Commentary : Gold Review : Markets : News Wire : Quotes : Silver : Stocks - Main Page 

 GoldSeek.com >> News >> Story  Disclaimer 
 
Latest Headlines

GoldSeek Radio Nugget: Peter Grandich and Chris Waltzek
By: radio.GoldSeek.com

A Precise Target If SPX IsGoosed
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks

Asian Metals Market Update: July-21-2017
By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Edge Higher
By: Chris Mullen, Gold-Seeker.com

The Life Cycle of a Junior Mining Share: Northern Vertex Moving towards 2017 Gold Production
By: Peter Spina, President, CEO of GoldSeek.com & SilverSeek.com

The Fed May Show Trump No Love
By: Peter Schiff, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital

RBA Minutes Turn Hawkish On News That the AUD/USD Had Moved Higher
By: Mike Golembesky

CLOSE TO NEW GOLD STANDARD? Australia Exports Record Amount Of Gold To China
By: Steve St. Angelo, SRSrocco Report

Preparing for THE Bottom: Part 4 Ė Gold Stocks and Bonds
By: Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA

Northern Vertex Closes Funding with Greenstone Resources and Sprott Lending to Advance The Moss Gold Mine to Commercial Production
By: Northern Vertex Mining Corp.

 
Search

GoldSeek Web

 
Emerging Markets And Basic Materials Breaking Out Together


 -- Published: Sunday, 16 July 2017 | Print  | Disqus 

By Rambus

While most members are focused on the precious metals, Iíve been waiting patiently for  two other sectors to setup a long term buy signal which I believe happened last week. I know you are well aware of my mantra that big consolidation patterns lead to big impulse moves. Whatís pretty amazing is these 2 sectors have an almost identical  long term consolidation pattern and are breaking out at the same time. It stands to reason that if the Emerging Markets are going to be strong then the Basic Materials sector should benefit as well.

Most like to look at the EEM, emerging market index, but there is another emerging market index which trades with much more volume, VWO which I will use in this post. Lets start with just a simple daily line chart for VWO which shows a H&S bottom in place and a breakout yesterday of the blue bullish rising flag. Keep those two patterns in the back of  your mind when we look at the longer term charts.

Below is a 5 year weekly bar chart which shows a double H&S bottom with the breakout of the blue bullish rising flag yesterday, which has formed just below the important overhead resistance zone. There are 2 things the blue bullish rising flag is suggesting, First these types of patterns form in strong moves and secondly it is forming just below important overhead resistance. Weíve studied this setup many times in the past which states, when you have a small consolidation pattern form just below important overhead resistance, it usually leads to a breakout. The small consolidation pattern builds up the energy needed for the final breakout move.

Now I would like to show you the long term weekly chart for the VWO so you can see the 6 year rectangle consolidation pattern that has been building out. Note how the blue bullish rising flag has formed just below that 6 year top rail of the rectangle consolidation pattern. If there was ever a place to see one of these types of bullish patterns buildout this is it.

As you can see on the weekly chart above the breakout hasnít actually happened yet. Most chartists donít like to use line charts, but they can be a very useful tool for the toolbox. Another lesson Iíve shown you in the past is how a line chart can often times signal a breakout before a bar chart. Keep in mind a line chart just uses the closing price whether it be a daily, weekly or monthly chart. Below is a monthly line chart which shows the breakout taking place. A backtest would come in around the 40.70 area on a monthly closing basis. The bottom line is that we want to see the price action close the month of July above the top rail.

This last chart for VWO is a 20 year look which shows its entire history. With this weeks move, the all important 4th reversal point was achieved when the top rail was hit which completes the trading range. It now becomes very important to see a strong breakout move higher leaving no doubt that the breakout is for real. A failure at the top rail would then start another reversal point to the downside which is not what we want to see.

If the breakout move continues then I would view the nearly 6 year trading range as a halfway pattern as shown by the blue arrows. I would expect we would see a similar impulse move up that began at the 2009 crash low up to the 2011 high in time and price. Big consolidation patterns lead to big moves.

Now lets take a look a daily chart for the XLB, basic materials index, which is showing it has just broken out 6 of a month blue expanding flat bottom triangle with a small H&S that formed as the backtest. Yesterday this basic materials index closed at a new all time high.

What are Basic Materials and what components are in the XLB ?

http://www.etfinvestmentoutlook.com/etf_holdings.php?s=XLB

Below is a 4 year weekly bar chart that is showing the breakout from the 6 point flat bottom triangle consolidation pattern into new all time highs this past week.

The long term monthly chart for the XLB shows its entire history and its bull market uptrend channel. If the 6 point expanding flat bottom triangle is breaking out topside then the original top rail of the major uptrend channel will be taken out. Generally when that happens you can see another equal channel higher giving the uptrend 3 equal channels instead of two. The black rectangles shows how this new uptrend may play out.

This next chart is a long term monthly chart for the XLF which Iíve been showing you how the lower channel may be morphing into a double uptrend channel with equal lower and upper channels. This is the same principle as the XLB chart above which is forming a possible third channel.

Below is a daily chart for the UYM, 2 X long the basic materials sector, which has just broken out from an almost 6 month expanding triangle consolidation pattern last Friday.

The long term monthly chart for the XLB shows a very similar setup to the long term chart we looked at earlier on the VWO, emerging markets etf. With the expanding triangle we just looked at on the daily chart above breaking out, then the price action should also breakout above the top rail of the 6 year bullish rising flag consolidation pattern.

This last chart for tonight is a weekly line chart which is showing the potential breakout underway. What the emerging markets and basic materials sectors are strongly suggesting  is that there is a big move coming which has global implications for growth even if we canít rationalize why at this point in time. We should see a very strong rally over the next 2 years or so equal to the rally out of the 2009 low to the 2011 high. Have a great weekend. All the bestÖRambus

https://rambus1.com/ 

 


| Digg This Article
 -- Published: Sunday, 16 July 2017 | E-Mail  | Print  | Source: GoldSeek.com

comments powered by Disqus



 



Increase Text SizeDecrease Text SizeE-mail Link of Current PagePrinter Friendly PageReturn to GoldSeek.com

 news.goldseek.com >> Story

E-mail Page  | Print  | Disclaimer 


© 1995 - 2017



GoldSeek.com Supports Kiva.org

© GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC

The content on this site is protected by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of GoldSeek.com and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on GoldSeek.com. This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other features found on the site. Please contact us for any further information.

Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer

The views contained here may not represent the views of GoldSeek.com, its affiliates or advertisers. GoldSeek.com makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics, analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained on or within this website, without the express written consent of GoldSeek.com, is strictly prohibited. In no event shall GoldSeek.com or its affiliates be liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon the information provided herein.