LIVE Gold Prices $  | E-Mail Subscriptions | Update GoldSeek | GoldSeek Radio 

Commentary : Gold Review : Markets : News Wire : Quotes : Silver : Stocks - Main Page >> News >> Story  Disclaimer 
Latest Headlines

SWOT Analysis: Gold Equities Have Room to Run…
By: Frank Holmes, US Funds

Technical Scoop: 200 Years - Gold/Gold Ratio, Precious Metals, equity, bond market updates and more
By: David Chapman

Gold Set to Correct but Internals Remain Bullish
By: Jordan Roy-Byrne CMT, MFTA

The Market Has Gone Nowhere In The Last Twelve Months
By: Avi Gilburt

Precious Metals Update Video: Gold weekly chart shows upside bias
By: Ira Epstein

Here's How to Tell Whether Bond Mania Is Out of Gas
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks

Asian Metals Market Update: August-19-2019
By: Chintan Karnani, Insignia Consultants

What I Learned at Camp Kotok
By: John Mauldin

COT Gold, Silver and US Dollar Index Report - August 16, 2019

Gold Miners’ Q2’19 Fundamentals
By: Adam Hamilton, CPA, Zeal Research


GoldSeek Web

Metals Are Setting Up A Strong Upside Move

 -- Published: Wednesday, 19 July 2017 | Print  | Disqus 

By Avi Gilburt

First published on Sat Jul 15 for members:  While I would love to suggest that we have begun the next larger degree rally already, the market has not provided me with strong indications that is going to be the case just yet.  While there are many indications that the market may have already bottomed, there are just as many indications that we may see the dreaded one more lower low before a lasting bottom may be seen.  But, I believe an investor should be preparing now for an impending rally which I believe will likely take hold over the coming weeks.

Now, whether we see that lower low or not, I want to highlight something of which you should definitely take notice, especially if you are bearish this complex.  Please take a look at the attached daily GDX chart. 

If you review the MACD historgram on the bottom, I have highlighted each of the 3 declines since we struck the high of the year back in February of 2017.  Notice how each decline has taken place on weakening downside technicals.  This shows clear evidence of waning sellers, as the selling has almost been completely exhausted. 

While we still can see one more drop to “fake-out” those who have their stops just under 20.89, I believe this chart provides strong evidence of us being on the cusp of a very strong rally.  In fact, if you review the bottoming histogram into late 2016, we saw the exact same evidence of waning selling, which led to the strong rally seen off the December low. 

Additionally, our management team of our EWT Miners Portfolio took the opportunity to review many of the leading miners we track, and I have to note they are almost all looking ripe for a strong rally.  We are seeing the same evidence of completing corrective pullbacks, along with the positive divergences one would normally see within a bottoming phase.  So, the individual stocks are clearly supporting our larger overall perspective in the complex.

As far as the GLD is concerned, it too can sustain a lower low, and would provide a strong positive divergence should the market drop below this past week’s price low.  Again, this is supportive of the waning selling in the GLD, which usually portends the strong reversal to the upside that we expect.  Moreover, this chart has been holding up quite strongly all year and the technicals are clearly supporting our larger expectations.

This leads me back to the problem child – silver.  As I noted last week, silver is the chart which causes me the greatest amount of angst.  If we do see that lower low in silver, it is possible it can extend to a low below the one struck in December of 2015.  That would then start us out on a new upside count into the bull market we are expecting.  And, at the end of the day, I don’t think that would be such a bad thing.  But, since we counted the pattern off the 2015 low as a leading diagonal, my primary expectation is that we will not break below the 2015 low.  You see, leading diagonals are known for their deep wave 2 retracements, which then lead to a powerful start of their ensuing 3rd waves.  So, it is quite reasonable to expect silver to “catch up” after it completes this pullback, if it has not done so already.

As it stands as of the end of the day on Friday, I cannot say that I have clear evidence that the complex has certainly bottomed.  Should we see a sustained rally in the GDX through the 22.60 region, then I could be convinced the bottom has been struck.  However, for the reasons I explained in detail in our trading room this past week, I think the probabilities still marginally remain on the side of the lower low to come, but it is not something for which I would aggressively trade.  My ideal target for that lower low is the 20.31 region, and if you remember back several months, that was my original ideal target for the bottom for a wave (2). 

But, the patterns are simply not clear enough on the micro-structures to be certain that a lower low will, in fact, be struck.  The larger signals are pointing to a strong rally setting up within the next few weeks and that is what you should be focused upon, in my humble opinion.  Any lower low – if we get it – should be a buying opportunity.

See charts illustrating the wave counts on the GDX, GLD, and Silver Futures (YI).


Avi Gilburt is a widely followed Elliott Wave technical analyst and author of (, a live Trading Room featuring his intraday market analysis (including emini S&P 500, metals, oil, USD & VXX), interactive member-analyst forum, and detailed library of Elliott Wave education.


| Digg This Article
 -- Published: Wednesday, 19 July 2017 | E-Mail  | Print  | Source:

comments powered by Disqus


Increase Text SizeDecrease Text SizeE-mail Link of Current PagePrinter Friendly PageReturn to >> Story

E-mail Page  | Print  | Disclaimer 

© 1995 - 2019 Supports

©, Gold Seek LLC

The content on this site is protected by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other features found on the site. Please contact us for any further information.

Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer


The views contained here may not represent the views of, Gold Seek LLC, its affiliates or advertisers., Gold Seek LLC makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics, analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained on or within this website, without the express written consent of, Gold Seek LLC, is strictly prohibited. In no event shall, Gold Seek LLC or its affiliates be liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon the information provided herein.