Advertise | Bookmark | Contact Us | E-Mail List |  | Update Page | UraniumSeek.com 

Commentary : Gold Review : Markets : News Wire : Quotes : Silver : Stocks - Main Page 

 GoldSeek.com >> News >> Story  Disclaimer 
 
Latest Headlines

Why 2017 Was a Year to Celebrate
By: John Mauldin

The Man Who Invented Christmas
By: Larry LaBorde

WORLD SILVER PRODUCTION: 3 Charts You Won’t See Anywhere Else
By: Steve St. Angelo

Explaining My Amazement About Those Turning Bullish On The Banking Sector Now
By: Avi Gilburt

Gold And Silver Futures Swing From Bearish To Bullish In Just Two Weeks
By: John Rubino

The Most Outlandish Gold Products You Can Buy
By: BullionStar

Trade Racks Up Gains as Bitcoin Steams Toward 22104
By: Rick Ackerman

GoldSeek.com Radio: John Embry and Charles Hughes Smith, and your host Chris Waltzek
By: radio.GoldSeek.com

Technical Scoop - Weekend Update Dec 17
By: David Chapman

Gold – WE’RE “CLOSE ENOUGH”
By: Gary Savage

 
Search

GoldSeek Web

 
Why Have You Been So Quiet About Metals?


 -- Published: Friday, 1 December 2017 | Print  | Disqus 

By Avi Gilburt

First published on Wed Nov 29 for members:  The question in the title is one of the most frequent comments I have been getting of late.  And, the answer is quite simple:   They are not doing anything right now.  In fact, if you look at the charts, we have been in the same general region for several months.

But, you see, many of you really don’t want an update to know what I really think about the complex.  Rather, many of you want an update to either soothe your emotions about the market, or to provide some confirmation bias for you.  It has become purely emotional for you, so you feel the need to constantly deal with your emotions.

This is what I warn about so often.  If you need constant soothing, then you are likely too heavily weighted in the complex.  And, if we do get further downside, as I think we will in many of the miners we track, it will lead you to more emotional outbursts. 

As markets are driven by emotion, your job is to learn how to rise above that emotion.  As one of our more astute members, Roy Prasad, stated quite eloquently and accurately:

“The goal of EW analysis is to analyze sentiment, not participate in it!”

While we caught the low late last year in the metals and miners, as we did in late 2015 as well, the market provided us with several set-ups to break out in 2017.  And, when it invalidated the last potential immediate set-up in September, you should have prepared your account, as well as your emotional state, for the potential that it can take us into 2018 until another break out set-up emerges.

As for my perspective of the complex, I am sorry to say that not a lot has really changed.  Yes, that means it can either go up or down, and it likely will. (smile).  This is likely corrective action we are dealing with right now, and it likely means that we should expect more whipsaw in the coming months.

 But, we did get some movement in silver, and I would like to give you a little update on that chart. Clearly, the market chose the downside before any further update.  Currently, I am count this decline as the c-wave in a y-wave of a (b) wave.  Yes, that places it in a complex correction, but what else would expect from a chart that has basically been going sideways for two months. 

However, I do have to modify the support I have for this count.  The y-wave would be equal to 1.382 the size of the x wave in the 16.25 region.  So, I can view this as a (b) wave within a b-wave as long as we hold over that level.  But, this c-wave is still going to need a 4th and 5th wave, which provides us with some positive divergence in the 144-minute MACD, to make this a much higher probability.  As it is, the market has provided us with many possibilities on this chart, so I would want to see that set up to make this a much higher probability in my mind.

Alternatively, should we break below 16.25, the 15.60 region is where we would have another level of support for what I would count as a bigger a-wave of wave (2).  As you can see, I am trying to maintain the more immediate bullish count with this being part of the machinations within a wave (2).   However, should we see a break of the 15.60 region, that could open the door to a drop into a 14 handle.  But, for now, I am going to maintain the more bullish wave (2) corrective count, as long as we remain over support.

Meanwhile, the GLD has remained in a month-long uptrend channel, as you can see from the attached 8 minute chart.  There is no discernable wave structure I can make out from this, but it is quite possible that it may maintain this channel all the way up to the 126 region for a larger b-wave rally.  But, without a clearly discernable pattern, the only thing upon which I can rely is the trend channel, which will likely be tested with one more drop.

As far as the GDX is concerned, I have to still maintain the bigger picture.  As long as the blue support box is held as support – over the 21 region – then the yellow count can be maintained as an alternative.  However, if we are going to see a strong break of the 21 region of support, it clearly will open the trap door down to the 17-19 region in the GDX.

This brings me back to the ABX.  As I have noted before, it seems stuck in between two counts, with the question being whether wave iii has ended.  Without the market being able to at least strike the resistance overhead, I have to assume that wave iii may still take us down to the 13 region, which would then set up a wave iv back to resistance. 

But, I want to highlight again the significant positive divergences evident on this daily chart.  This is the stuff of which major bottoms are struck.  So, while I can maintain an “ideal” wave structure still calling for a iii-iv-v to complete in the coming months, I want you to be well aware that when the upside finally gets ignited, the set up is quite similar to expect what we saw in early 2016.  So, while my ideal structure still calls for more downside on this chart, as a long term investor with a horizon of more than a few months, it would be hard to maintain a strong bearish bias when I see divergences like this.

So, as you can see, there is really no clear micro-path provided in the charts we follow.  While I have attempted to provide you some insight as to what I think is the most likely scenarios over the coming weeks, I have to note that I don’t see anything that is a HIGH probability set up before me, as I write this today.  Ultimately, this leads me to retain my conclusion that it will likely take several more months until we are able to resurrect a strong bullish break-out set up in this complex.

 

See charts illustrating the wave counts on the GDX, GLD & Silver (YI).

Avi Gilburt is a widely followed Elliott Wave technical analyst and author of ElliottWaveTrader.net (www.elliottwavetrader.net), a live Trading Room featuring his intraday market analysis (including emini S&P 500, metals, oil, USD & VXX), interactive member-analyst forum, and detailed library of Elliott Wave education.

 


| Digg This Article
 -- Published: Friday, 1 December 2017 | E-Mail  | Print  | Source: GoldSeek.com

comments powered by Disqus



 



Increase Text SizeDecrease Text SizeE-mail Link of Current PagePrinter Friendly PageReturn to GoldSeek.com

 news.goldseek.com >> Story

E-mail Page  | Print  | Disclaimer 


© 1995 - 2017



GoldSeek.com Supports Kiva.org

© GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC

The content on this site is protected by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of GoldSeek.com and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on GoldSeek.com. This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other features found on the site. Please contact us for any further information.

Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer

The views contained here may not represent the views of GoldSeek.com, its affiliates or advertisers. GoldSeek.com makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics, analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained on or within this website, without the express written consent of GoldSeek.com, is strictly prohibited. In no event shall GoldSeek.com or its affiliates be liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon the information provided herein.