Advertise | Bookmark | Contact Us | E-Mail List |  | Update Page | UraniumSeek.com 

Commentary : Gold Review : Markets : News Wire : Quotes : Silver : Stocks - Main Page 

 GoldSeek.com >> News >> Story  Disclaimer 
 
Latest Headlines

Gold And Silver: Similar To 2008
By: Dave Kranzler

It's Time for Contrarians to Get Bullish on Gold
By: Frank Holmes

Merk Research - US Equity Markets
By: Axel Merk

This Analysis Will Change The Way You Invest Forever - Part 1
By: Avi Gilburt

London House Prices Fall At Fastest Rate Since Height Of Financial Crisis
By: GoldCore

Gold Seeker Closing Report: Gold and Silver Gain with Stocks and Dollar
By: Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report

Jack Chan's Question: Is This an Exhaustion Gap or a Breakaway Gap?
By: Jack Chan

Ira Epstein's Metals Video 8 14 2018
By: Ira Epstein

Gold: Tactics For The Price Sale
By: Stewart Thomson

A Depressed Economy And A Silver Boom
By: Hubert Moolman

 
Search

GoldSeek Web

 
A Hawkish Fed? Hardly


 -- Published: Wednesday, 31 January 2018 | Print  | Disqus 

By Dave Kranzler

Sometimes I wonder if the Fed is just toying with the financial media and economic analysts.  The Fed’s constant threat to raise rates and unwind its balance sheet seems to be taken seriously by most commentators.  Even the few analysts I respect, like David Stockman, include the assumption the Fed will reduce its balance sheet by a few hundred billion per year.

And yet,  nearly 5 years past Bernanke’s “taper speech” the Fed Funds rate has been barely lifted off the zero-bound and the Fed’s balance sheet has been reduced only  ever so slightly.  Every meeting it’s pretty much the same story:  “FED LEAVES RATES UNCHANGED IN UNANIMOUS VOTE  *FED: ECONOMY TO `WARRANT FURTHER GRADUAL INCREASES’ IN RATES” (the graphic to the right was hypothecated from an article tweeted by @RudyHavenstein – note the date of publication).

In today’s statement, the Fed comments that “inflation to stabilize around 2% medium-term.”  First of all, what the hell does “medium-term” mean?  And in what parallel universe is the Fed calculating its 2% inflation rate?  Food prices are soaring; healthcare premiums rose anywhere from 20% to 100%;  home prices allegedly are up at least 10%;  energy prices are rising at a clip well beyond 2% per annum.

The Fed’s nefarious “Quantitative Tightening” has been a complete joke.  The “weight loss” program was supposed to commence in October.  On October 11th, the Fed’s balance sheet $4.221 billion.  As of last Wednesday, the Fed’s balance sheet was $4.203 trillion – down $18 billion.  The Fed is not even shedding its promised $10 billion per month.   The SOMA account, which is where the disclosed bond purchases reside, is also about $18 billion lighter since mid-October.   Note:  “disclosed” as opposed to the off-balance sheet asset purchases held in off-shore accounts like the Swiss National Bank and the Belgian Central Bank.   But the mortgage holdings in the SOMA account have actually increased $3 billion since mid-October.   You can see for yourself here – SOMA account – and here – Fed Balance Sheet.

If the economy is doing so well and there’s a shortage of houses (allegedly) and a shortage of labor, why is the Fed adding to its mortgage holdings and why is the Fed – in a unanimous vote – leaving rates unchanged?  “Economists” like Moody’s Mark Zandi assert that the labor market and economy is “in danger of over-heating.”  If that’s the case, why are rates being held down at historically low levels?   Why does the Fed threaten rate hikes but never follows-through?  It’s the same story after every meeting.  The market prices in a 95% chance of a rate-hike for the next meeting.  And then, just like Lucy does to Charlie Brown with the football when he goes to kick it in “Peanuts,” the Fed folds the cards in its hand and waits for the next deal.

According to Goldman Sachs’ financial conditions index, it’s never been easier to get a loan.  In fact, outstanding debt at every level of the economic system hits a new record pretty much daily.  The Treasury Secretary is now begging Congress to raise the debt ceiling.  The amount of Treasury debt outstanding will easily increase in excess of trillion dollars this year, as it has every year since 2007.

In truth, the economy is starting to fold faster than the Fed folds at every FOMC meeting.  Credit card and auto loan defaults are beginning to soar.  We’re at levels on both that were last seen in late 2008.  The problem is, we have not had a crisis yet.  The  market, regardless of the unwillingness of the Fed to tighten its monetary policy, is starting to take care of that for the Fed.  The yield on the 10yr Treasury has nearly doubled since July 2016.  It’s up 60 basis points since August.

Mortgage rates, despite the Fed’s willingness to inject money into the mortgage market, are at 4-year highs.  This is going to wreak havoc on the demand for homes. This is because most homebuyers buy a monthly payment, not a home.  It won’t take much of a move higher in rates, combined with the changes in the new tax law, to make that monthly mortgage payment unaffordable for most prospective homebuyers.

What would happen to interest rates if the Fed actually followed through on its threats and began hike rates up to a level which reflected the rate of inflation and actually reduced its Treasury and mortgage holdings according to the schedule Yellen outlined last year?

http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/a-hawkish-fed-hardly/

 


| Digg This Article
 -- Published: Wednesday, 31 January 2018 | E-Mail  | Print  | Source: GoldSeek.com

comments powered by Disqus



 



Increase Text SizeDecrease Text SizeE-mail Link of Current PagePrinter Friendly PageReturn to GoldSeek.com

 news.goldseek.com >> Story

E-mail Page  | Print  | Disclaimer 


© 1995 - 2018



GoldSeek.com Supports Kiva.org

© GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC

The content on this site is protected by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of GoldSeek.com and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on GoldSeek.com. This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other features found on the site. Please contact us for any further information.

Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer

The views contained here may not represent the views of GoldSeek.com, its affiliates or advertisers. GoldSeek.com makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics, analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained on or within this website, without the express written consent of GoldSeek.com, is strictly prohibited. In no event shall GoldSeek.com or its affiliates be liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon the information provided herein.