Advertise | Bookmark | Contact Us | E-Mail List |  | Update Page | UraniumSeek.com 

Commentary : Gold Review : Markets : News Wire : Quotes : Silver : Stocks - Main Page 

 GoldSeek.com >> News >> Story  Disclaimer 
 
Latest Headlines

Gold Seeker Weekly Wrap-Up: Gold and Silver Fall Almost 1% and 2% on the Week
By: Chris Mullen, Gold Seeker Report

COT Gold, Silver and US Dollar Index Report - July 20, 2018
By: GoldSeek.com

The Deep State, Trump, and the World
By: Clive Maund

Gold Investment Wanes
By: Adam Hamilton, CPA

The Most Important Charts for Your Gold Stocks Right Now
By: Marin Katusa

The road to war: China’s kryptonite - Part 2
By: Richard (Rick) Mills

GoldSeek Radio Nugget: Bill Murphy and Chris Waltzek
By: radio.GoldSeek.com

NEVER BEFORE SEEN CHARTS: Gold Mining Industry’s Costs Are Higher Than Market Realizes
By: Steve St. Angelo

Powell Sinks Gold, Again
By: Arkadiusz Sieron

Weekly Digest – News, Market Updates and Videos You May Have Missed
By: GoldCore

 
Search

GoldSeek Web

 
Physical Gold Production May Be Peaking, But There Is No Shortage In Paper Gold


 -- Published: Monday, 26 March 2018 | Print  | Disqus 

By Clint Siegner

Gold production numbers for 2017 are still being compiled but estimates call for the first annual decline in mine output since 2008.

The gold price fell dramatically in the months following the 2011 peak in prices. It has languished at, or near, the cost of production for years. Low gold prices are having a predictable effect on mine output.

Many projects with marginal ore deposits were rendered uneconomic. High cost operators went out of business. Exploration budgets got slashed dramatically. And all of these factors compound a larger underlying issue. It is increasingly difficult to find gold deposits that make sense to mine. New discoveries are less than a fifth of what they were in 2006.

Exploration Fail (Chart)

Much higher gold prices will drive more exploration and should boost discoveries. Some projects which have been mothballed due to higher costs will become feasible once again. But the trend seems clear – the drought in discoveries, which began more than a decade ago, looks likely to persist regardless of the gold price. And the struggle to find economic deposits will translate to a serious decline in production in the years ahead.

Some forecasters believe 2016 represented peak gold production. To the extent that physical supply is a determinant in the price, gold investors have something to look forward to. However, and unfortunately, price discovery happens in the broken and rigged futures markets.

When it comes to trading in gold futures, the physical supply and demand for the metal is barely a consideration.

Practically no one trading contracts cares about getting delivery.

During periods of high speculative demand in the futures markets, the bullion banks stand ready to sell a virtually unlimited number of fresh new contracts. Physical gold may be scarce, but available paper gold has been limitless.

Someday the confidence in gold (and silver) futures is likely to collapse.

Some event will prompt traders to look at the shocking amount of leverage built into the contracts. They will suddenly be uncomfortable with how little physical metal there is supporting the enormous paper trade. When too many begin standing for delivery of bars, they will be handed cash instead, provided their counterparties are solvent.

The markets will wake up and find all of the paper which was supposed to represent gold actually does nothing of the kind. The peak in paper gold will have passed.

Diminishing mine output will definitely have ramifications for the gold price, but the metal won’t find fair market value until people stop demanding paper and start demanding the real thing. Gold investors should be encouraged by prospects of a peak in physical gold, but the real celebration will have to wait until the peak in paper gold is behind us.

Clint Siegner is a Director at Money Metals Exchange, the national precious metals company named 2015 "Dealer of the Year" in the United States by an independent global ratings group. A graduate of Linfield College in Oregon, Siegner puts his experience in business management along with his passion for personal liberty, limited government, and honest money into the development of Money Metals' brand and reach. This includes writing extensively on the bullion markets and their intersection with policy and world affairs.

 


| Digg This Article
 -- Published: Monday, 26 March 2018 | E-Mail  | Print  | Source: GoldSeek.com

comments powered by Disqus



 



Increase Text SizeDecrease Text SizeE-mail Link of Current PagePrinter Friendly PageReturn to GoldSeek.com

 news.goldseek.com >> Story

E-mail Page  | Print  | Disclaimer 


© 1995 - 2018



GoldSeek.com Supports Kiva.org

© GoldSeek.com, Gold Seek LLC

The content on this site is protected by U.S. and international copyright laws and is the property of GoldSeek.com and/or the providers of the content under license. By "content" we mean any information, mode of expression, or other materials and services found on GoldSeek.com. This includes editorials, news, our writings, graphics, and any and all other features found on the site. Please contact us for any further information.

Live GoldSeek Visitor Map | Disclaimer

The views contained here may not represent the views of GoldSeek.com, its affiliates or advertisers. GoldSeek.com makes no representation, warranty or guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness of the information (including news, editorials, prices, statistics, analyses and the like) provided through its service. Any copying, reproduction and/or redistribution of any of the documents, data, content or materials contained on or within this website, without the express written consent of GoldSeek.com, is strictly prohibited. In no event shall GoldSeek.com or its affiliates be liable to any person for any decision made or action taken in reliance upon the information provided herein.