-- Published: Friday, 6 April 2018 | Print | Disqus
Just a few months ago, news impacting gold and other metals was very different from today as at that time we were dealing with the impact of tax reform, the US budget and a major increase in military spending talk of infrastructure spending.
We’re no longer dealing with:
· War with North Korea (NK), being a daily topic. In fact, plans are underway for a meeting between Kim Jun Un and President Trump in late spring. No missile tests have taken place in months due to the US leading other nations to place sanctions on NK. Last week NK’s leader traveled outside of North Korea for the first time since he took office to speak with the Chinese about trade and upcoming talks with the US.
· Inflation concerns and the Fed raising interest rates. Yields on the 10-Year Notes were close to getting over 3%, with many analysts saying the market was going to 3.5% this year and that bonds had entered a long-term bear market. Since then yields have slipped back to near 2.78%
· Infrastructure was going to be a hot topic going into US mid-term elections. I now hear nor read anything about this subject now.
· NAFTA talks were not going well and it looked like there was no point in negotiations going on. Today, President Trump is pushing for an agreement in principal to be announced at the April Summit of the America’s Conference, to be held on April 13th.
Current Topics now impacting metals
· Earning season starts next week. This is where US corporations report their 1st Quarter Earnings and where we might see the first impact of repatriation of capital on books of corporations. Expectations are for earning to provide support to stock indices which have fallen hard recently
· The Fed continues to be very quiet concerning the impact of trade wars, but has stuck and continues to stick with its dot plot, whereby two more rate hikes are still on the table for this year. As for Fed comments on a trade war with China or other countries President Trump is negotiating with, the Fed simply says in “Fed Speak” that a trade war is not a good thing and if one occurs, they will have to see its impact. I haven’t seen them willing to say much more as their job is to react to it, not get in front of it.
· President Trump continues to shuffle his cabinet, adding to it those with more “hawkish” attitudes towards international trade and foreign relations and Iran.
· As for Iran, unless our treaty partners get some changes to the treaty, I see little to dissuade the President and his hawkish cabinet from sticking with the treaty.
· Inflation readings both in the US and other western economies are NOT picking up to the point where they’re headline news.
· The European Central Bank is regularly in the news concerning what the bank will do as the current QE program runs down.
· The Bank of Japan is in the news in terms of early discussions concerning when their easy money policy will come to an end.
Below I will present a series of charts below that offer up ideas on gold’s next move.
Seasonal Charts…Bull, Bear and Neutral Year Patterns
The above chart shows in color Bull, Bear and Neutral years patterns. We’re at a time frame where gold often tips its hand as to what the move is going to be.
Daily Seasonal Price Chart
The above chart shows that that prices from now into June often flounder. I put a hand with a line over April 5th, the current date to show what has occurred on a historical basis.
We’re at a point in time where prices often rally but they aren’t doing so right now.
The month of June often a low point for Gold in terms of downside momentum.
One of several rules I use in determining if a PriceCount becomes active is either getting two closes under the lower number of a Downside PriceCount to activate it or two closes over the upper number to active it. These closes need not be in consecutive order but should be very close to each other in terms of timing.
Upside Daily PriceCount Chart
As can be seen on the above chart, the upside PriceCount has been activated given that two or more closes over the upper number, 1347.5 has taken place. It will take a move under 1312.4, the lowest low after the PriceCount was activated to render this upside PriceCount inactive. The first upside objective is 1375.0
Downside Daily PriceCount Chart
As can be seen on the above chart, there’s also a downside PriceCount setup, but it’s not been activated. Two closes under 1314.5 are needed to activate it and yes, it’s not all that common to have both upside and downside counts exist side-by-side unless the market is rangebound, which is what’s going on now.
Weekly PriceCount Chart
Longer term investors often like to look at longer term charts. Above is Weekly PriceCount Chart of Gold. This chart still has open counts above the market. Getting under 1194.5 will negate them, but that price is very far away.
Weekly Bar Chart
Gold has been holding well above it’s 18, 100 and 200 Day Moving Average of Closes on the Weekly Chart, which keeps a bullish bias in place. The most important average in the near term is the 18-Week Moving Average of Closes, as that is what prices need to stay over if other chart indicators are to turn bullish.
Momentum as measured by the Slow Stochastic reading is pointing down but also getting down to a neutral area where both legs of the indicator are now sitting in the 50’s, a midpoint of this oscillator.
Daily Bar Chart
The daily chart shows that prices are now back under the 18-Day Moving Average of Closes, which means a downside is at work but the is not trend at work given the chart pattern is one of a lower low and higher high.
There’s nothing clear cut.
The longer term Weekly Bar Chart has bullish bias, as prices have been able to stay over all the key moving average of closes.
The shorter term Daily Bar Chart has a negative bias due to prices today closing under the 18-Day Moving Average of Closes.
As for trends, there’s none at work on the Daily chart as the chart pattern is one of a higher high and lower low pattern. The Weekly chart however stay’s bullish if 1306.6, the low of March 23rd is not taken out. Support on the Weekly chart is 1317.3, the 18-Week Moving Average of Closes while support on the Daily chart comes in at the 100-Day Moving Average of Closes, 1319.3. Therefore, how the market holds up if these levels are attacked will answer what if gold is going to breakdown and expand prices to the downside.
The next question is what if these levels aren’t challenged? The answer is that if prices start moving higher, the first upside PriceCount is 1364.4, a number just missed recently. More important would be that if the upside is attacked, a Bullish year pattern would, according to the seasonal chart pattern, kick in.
Right now, I have more of a bearish than a bullish bias.
As for a trade recommendation, I don’t see one that makes sense, which I’m sure is disappointing, but that’s what I see. Things could change quickly. If they do, I will put out an update to this report.
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-- Published: Friday, 6 April 2018 | E-Mail | Print | Source: GoldSeek.com