-- Published: Tuesday, 5 June 2018 | Print | Disqus
By Stewart Thomson
1. In the West, gold has rallied decently during five of the past seven recessions. Iíve suggested that the current situation in America is something like 1965 Ė 1970, when inflation began a long and strong up cycle.
2. Thatís partly why Iím adamant that itís the best time in American history to own a portfolio (a global portfolio) of companies involved in precious metals mining and jewellery.
3. The other reason that Iím excited about these stocks is that in the East, when people get richer, they buy gold. They are now getting a lot richer, and a lot faster.
4. Simply put, deflation is out, and inflation is in. Itís really that simple, and investors around the world need to get positioned right now to ensure they get maximum financial benefit.
5. Please click here now. With their statements and analysis, Morgan Stanley moves ďthunder cashĒ in the institutional investor community.
6. Their top US equity man, Mike ďMr. BigĒ Wilson, predicts that while US markets are a clear short-term buy, valuations peaked in 2017, and prices will peak in 2018.
7. Iím in 100% agreement with Mike. Tactically, Iíve urged investors who are not afraid of price chasing to buy some bank stocks, energy stocks, and growth stocks. Gamblers can buy call options.
8. Thatís how to play the final months of upside fun in the US stock market, but investors must be seriously prepared for years of inflationary bear market horror to follow this blow-off top.
9. Iíve predicted that only the most astute stock pickers will survive being invested in the US stock market from 2019 forwards. In the coming inflationary inferno, index and ETF investors will essentially be turned into tumbleweed, burning in a financial desert.
10. When will the inferno begin? Well, I think it happens in the upcoming September Ė October US stock market ďcrash seasonĒ, and by year-end at the latest. I expect gold to go ballistic as that happens, because it will be an inflation-oriented meltdown, and that means institutional thunder-buying takes place in the metals.
11. Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this GDX chart. In terms of time, I think gold stocks will initially surge higher for two to three years as the stock market falls.
12. Most of the gains should be sustained due to an imminent drop in US and Chinese gold mining production. Canadian, Australian, and Russian miners should be the clear leaders in what I call the gold bull era.
13. Note the diamond pattern in play on that GDX chart. A drift down from it now would put GDX at my key buy area of $21 just in time for the Fedís next rate hike. That hike will put another major nail in the US stock market valuations coffin. It will be followed at the end of June with another ramp-up in QT.
14. Many investors who failed to buy the stock market in 2008-2010 and are buying now are trying to convince themselves that the Fed will back off from more hikes and QT. This is very childish thinking. Those engaged in it will soon learn the hard way that the Fed doesnít care about their silly stock market price chase.
15. On a demographics note: In my professional opinion, about 60% of the Western gold community is now composed of younger ďsmart moneyĒ investors. They have been invested in the US stock and bond markets and are becoming very concerned (and rightly so) about the growing risk that inflation will cause a severe bear market in these traditional asset classes.
16. This new breed of gold bug has more patience than the ďold guardĒ gold fear trade investors. The old guard focused more on financial system risk and government debt that threatened to create a kind of ďparabolic momentĒ of vertical price rise for precious metals. The transition from deflation to insidious inflation is an enormous process that requires investor patience, but it is now well underway.
17. Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this beautiful silver chart. The silver price has been consolidating the rally from the summer of 2017 in a nice symmetrical triangle pattern. Silver is highly correlated to gold, but during periods of inflation there is also a significant correlation with sugar.
18. Thatís because the average ďman/woman on the streetĒ tends to see gold as too high-priced to buy. Silverís lower price is more enticing, and they can relate to an ounce of silver rising like the price of a pound of sugar rises.
19. Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. Sugar is arguably even better than money velocity as an inflation indicator.
20. Investors should watch for a two-month close over the blue downtrend line. That must be followed by a two-week close over sixteen cents a pound. That price action is likely to indicate that inflation is becoming a firestorm for the stock market and will function as a green light for most gold stocks to blast higher.
21. Note the peak in the summer of 2016 for sugar. That functioned as a red light for gold stock investors. The next signal will be a green one and investors need to get prepared now.
22. In contrast to the hyperinflation envisioned by older gold bugs who focused on bank and financial system risk, the type of inflation that is coming now is more like the inflation of 1966 -1975, on an even bigger scale because of rampant Chindian income growth. Itís insidious.
23. This inflation will last for a hundred years and likely for much longer, not just for a decade or two like in the 1970s. Itís a process akin to millions of solid gold termites invading the US stock and bond market house. No bug spray works, so the institutional investors inside the house will all leave.
24. The bottom line: If you canít fight a gold bug invasion, you have to join it. Gold stocks will rise thousands of percentage points higher as investors begin to understand what is happening. The inflation is imminent, and investors must get prepared!
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Written between 4am-7am. 5-6 issues per week. Emailed at aprox 9am daily.
Stewart Thomson is a retired Merrill Lynch broker. Stewart writes the Graceland Updates daily between 4am-7am. They are sent out around 8am-9am. The newsletter is attractively priced and the format is a unique numbered point form. Giving clarity of each point and saving valuable reading time.
Risks, Disclaimers, Legal
Stewart Thomson is no longer an investment advisor. The information provided by Stewart and Graceland Updates is for general information purposes only. Before taking any action on any investment, it is imperative that you consult with multiple properly licensed, experienced and qualified investment advisors and get numerous opinions before taking any action. Your minimum risk on any investment in the world is: 100% loss of all your money. You may be taking or preparing to take leveraged positions in investments and not know it, exposing yourself to unlimited risks. This is highly concerning if you are an investor in any derivatives products. There is an approx $700 trillion OTC Derivatives Iceberg with a tiny portion written off officially. The bottom line:
Are You Prepared?
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-- Published: Tuesday, 5 June 2018 | E-Mail | Print | Source: GoldSeek.com