Our proprietary cycle indicator is down.
The gold sector is on a long-term buy signal, but $HUI needs to hold above 160 on a monthly close to avoid a long -erm sell signal. Long-term signals can last for months and years and are more suitable for investors holding for long term.
The gold sector is on a short-term sell signal. Short-term signals can last for days and weeks, and are more suitable for traders.
Our ratio between gold and gold stocks is on short-term sell signal.
Speculation is now at net short for the first time since 2001.
Silver is on a long-term buy signal.
SLV is on a short-term sell signal, and short-term signals can last for days to weeks, more suitable for traders.
Speculation is at net short again.
USD: A correction/pullback should start soon, which may provide some relief to the metals.
Summary
The precious metals sector is on a long-term buy signal, but that may change at month end. Short term is on sell signals. The cycle is down. COT data is at extreme levels, which suggests a recovery should start soon. We have trimmed our exposure for now and wait for more data over the next two weeks.
Jack Chan is the editor of simply profits at www.simplyprofits.org, established in 2006. Chan bought his first mining stock, Hoko Exploration, in 1979, and has been active in the markets for the past 37 years. Technical analysis has helped him filter out the noise and focus on the when, and leave the why to the fundamental analysts. His proprietary trading models have enabled him to identify the NASDAQ top in 2000, the new gold bull market in 2001, the stock market top in 2007, and the U.S. dollar bottom in 2011.
